Chad Johnson

After a bounce-back campaign in 2009, Ochocinco had another down season in 2010, both from an efficiency and total output standpoint. Ochocinco averaged just 6.6. YPT and 12.4 YPC, yielding his role as downfield playmaker to Terrell Owens and even rookie Jordan Shipley. This was problematic because Ochocinco has never been a major red-zone target and relied on his ball skills and athleticism. At 33, Ochocinco may yet have something in the tank – receivers tend to age better than running backs, for example, and he's had a borderline Hall of Fame career. And what better team to try to age with than the Patriots, who traded for Ochocinco in exchange for two late-round draft picks? Ochocinco won't turn into 2007 Randy Moss, but his 2011 potential grew significantly after the trade.

Ochocinco bounced back from a down 2008 last year, but it’s likely the superstar from the Chad Johnson days is gone for good. Playing for a team that was 28th in passing attempts per game, Ochocinco was the Bengals’ only reliable target, hauling in 56 percent of the 128 balls thrown his way for 8.2 yards per look (13th among the league’s 28 100-target wideouts). And while Ochocinco averaged a respectable 14.5 yards per catch, he had just three catches of 40 yards or more, something he used to specialize in during his prime. At 6-1, 195, Ochocinco’s not the league’s most physical receiver, and he lacks elite deep speed and separation ability. He’s also not much of a red-zone target — despite the Bengals lack of options, Ochocinco had just 13 targets there all year (34th). In other words, it’s hard to see him repeating the nine touchdowns again in 2010, especially with the more rugged Antonio Bryant now in the fold. Ochocinco also strained his hamstring while working out in late May, but he's expected to be fine for the start of training camp.

If you thought Torry Holt had a bad season, then what do you make of Johnson's 2008 performance? Johnson's per play numbers were Marvin Harrison bad, and at press time Harrison's not even rostered. It's enough to make a player want to change his name. In Johnson's defense he didn't exactly have Peyton Manning (or even Carson Palmer) throwing him the ball, and he missed two games with a hamstring injury and played through a sore knee. (Johnson was also suspended for a game for falling asleep at a team meeting). While relations between Johnson and the Bengals are not optimal, head coach Marvin Lewis insisted that the team has no interest in dealing him, and with T.J. Houshmandzadeh leaving for Seattle, Johnson should again be the team's top target ' with a healthy Palmer. While Laveranues Coles' arrival could cut into to Johnson's role to an extent, Coles, too, is past his prime, and in any event, he's not likely to have a bigger a role than the departed Houshmandzadeh. At 31, it's possible Johnson has lost a step. He was never a true burner to begin with and instead relied on his leaping ability, decent size (6-1, 190), first-rate athleticism and acrobatic playmaking. But receivers are commonly effective into their mid-30s, and Johnson averaged 8.9 yards per target (4th) and had 1,440 receiving yards as recently as 2007. Expect a bounce back, even if Johnson's heyday is behind him.

For all of Johnson's attention-grabbing antics, we should keep in mind that he's only had double-digit touchdowns once in his career – 10 in 2003. Make no mistake, he's a receptions and yardage machine, and in fact, 2007 represented a career high in receiving yards. But for the second season in a row, Johnson scored in just four of 16 games, and unless you're in a total points league, that feast-or-famine production can be ill-timed. At 6-1, 190, Johnson’s not a particularly stout receiver, and he's not especially fast. He's able to make so many plays down the field due to his leaping ability, timing, body control, strong hands and excellent eye-hand coordination. Johnson’s in the last year of his current deal, and there's been talk this offseason that Cincinnati has been entertaining offers for him. Johnson's in the last year of his current deal, and while there's been talk this offseason that he was demanding a trade, at press time, Johnson indicated he planned to attend the team's minicamp in June.

Forget about buying a struggling superstar low this season – Johnson’s story from 2006 should make that next to impossible. Through eight games, Johnson had just 40 catches for 482 yards and two touchdowns, while teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh was significantly outproducing him on a per game basis. But in Weeks 10 and 11, Johnson exploded for 17 catches, 450 yards and five scores in Weeks 10 and 11, en route to a huge second half, a receiving yardage title and a league-leading eight receptions of 40 yards or more. Of course, Johnson’s downfield playmaking wasn’t a surprise – he’s had 27 catches of at least 40 yards over the last four years, giving him added value in distance scoring leagues. The problem with Johnson in conventional leagues is that he doesn’t get enough easy opportunities to find pay dirt. At 6-1, 190, Johnson has decent size, but he’s by no means a prototypical red-zone target in the mold of Terrell Owens or Antonio Gates. Johnson had just 11 looks from inside the 20 all year, a mere half of Houshmandzadeh’s 22. Moreover, this isn’t just a one year aberration, as Houshmandzadeh got more looks from in close than Johnson (25 to 18) in 2005 as well. As a result, Johnson scored in just four games all season, or put differently, he failed to record a touchdown in 12 out of 16 contests. Johnson doesn’t have tremendous downfield speed, but his outstanding eye-hand coordination, body control, strong hands and ability to play the ball in the air make him a dangerous deep threat. With quarterback Carson Palmer heading into 2007 with a clean bill of health, Johnson is as good a bet as anyone to lead the league in receiving yardage. But unless Cincinnati reapportions its red-zone touches, you shouldn’t bank on double-digit touchdowns.

Johnson doesn’t just beat defensive backs down the field with his size, strength and agility – he choreographs his victory celebrations with an assortment of dances, gestures and skits. If you can stomach these antics (and what fantasy owner wouldn’t for 1,400-plus yards and nine scores), Johnson should be one of the top receivers on your board. Johnson won’t blow anyone away with his foot speed, but his leaping ability, body control and strong hands allow him to go up over defensive backs and reel in passes down the field. Johnson pulled in seven passes for 40 yards or more a year ago, and has 19 from that distance over the last three seasons. Johnson is also tough to bring down after the catch, and isn’t afraid to make catches in traffic. Johnson’s good hands allow him to make tough and sometimes acrobatic catches, but he occasionally loses focus as evidenced by his nine drops last year (third most in the AFC) and league-leading 14 drops in 2004. After being the most targeted receiver in the league in 2004, Johnson’s 155 looks were good for sixth most in the league last year, and his league-leading 28 red-zone targets fell off significantly to just 18 in 2005. In fact, Johnson’s teammate, T.J. Houshmandzadeh led the Bengals in red-zone targets with 25, though Johnson converted five to Houshmandzadeh’s four for scores. While Johnson is still easily Carson Palmer’s top target, the favoritism gap between the two receivers has narrowed. The other major issue facing Johnson is Palmer’s severe knee injury – Palmer tore the ACL, MCL and dislocated his kneecap. Palmer is very unlikely to be 100 percent for training camp, though there’s some chance he’ll be able to return for Week 1. If Palmer isn’t ready, expect Johnson’s numbers to take a hit with Anthony Wright under center.

Johnson led the NFL in targets last season, getting the rock tossed his way a 172 times. That he converted just 55 percent of those into catches and managed only 13.4 yards per catch shows, on one hand, his inefficiency, but, on the other, that Carson Palmer loves to look Johnson’s way and that there’s room for both to improve. If Palmer takes the logical next step in his second full season as a starter as many expect, we could be looking at even bigger things from Johnson. Johnson’s not a true burner, but at 6-1, 195 pounds, he has good size and the ability to make downfield plays. Johnson is a fluid route-runner who can change directions on a dime, and he’s a dangerous target around the goal line, converting three of five passes thrown his way for scores. Johnson also led the league in red-zone targets with 28, converting nine into touchdowns. On a negative note, Johnson also led the NFL in dropped passes with 14. Given all the balls thrown his way, seven or eight might have been acceptable, but 14 – three more than Darrell Jackson and Donald Driver, who were second in that department – shows Johnson’s concentration wasn’t where it needed to be at times. Johnson’s hands haven’t been a problem in the past – he dropped three passes in 2003 – but if he continues to drop passes, especially in crucial situations, Palmer could be forced to spread the ball around more.

The only thing keeping Johnson out of the top tier of WRs is the Bengals’ plan to start the inexperienced Carson Palmer. Johnson was targeted 154 times last year, and 58 percent of those passes were completed. The sure-handed Johnson (only three drops last year) was fifth in the league with 12 catches of over 25 yards. Johnson had 12 red-zone receptions (just one off the NFL pace) and four scores on passes thrown from inside the 10. Johnson is tall but slightly built, and the Bengals keep him out of the dangerous areas of the field (only six catches over the middle in ’03). He was surprisingly quiet in the second half of games last year, scoring just two of his 10 TDs. Palmer’s growing pains are unlikely to destroy Johnson’s season, as Jon Kitna is capable and available to pick up the pieces should that become necessary. But you have to anticipate that Johnson’s productivity in the early season will be hampered by conservative play calling and a reliance on the running game, which Marvin Lewis telegraphed by using his first-round pick on another RB, Chris Perry.

The best compliment for Johnson is that he's almost as good as he thinks he is. Only Plaxico Burress talks more trash among AFC wide receivers. That said, CJ spent most of his sophomore year backing up the talk. Despite regular double-teaming, not to mention the early quarterback shuffle the Bengals went through, Johnson finished the year on a tear, with 818 receiving yards over the final eight weeks of the season; only Marvin Harrison (887 yards) gained more real estate over that span. It's no surprise that Johnson became quarterback Jon Kitna's first read over the final two months; the brazen wideout isn't afraid to go over the middle and routinely bounces right up after the most jarring of hits. Given that Johnson's season-ending stats were still somewhat tame in 2002 (1,166 yards, five touchdowns), he figures to be a decent value this year.