David Garrard

The arrival of Blaine Gabbert all but guarantees that Garrard won’t be the quarterback of the future for Jacksonville, but he should still be able to hold off the rookie for most or all of 2011. Limited as he might be, Garrard is coming off one of the best years of his career, totaling 28 touchdowns (five rushing) in just 14 appearances. It’d be an upset if he held that rate of two touchdowns per game, but Garrard’s rushing ability and general steadiness make him a solid backup option in most cases, especially with tight end Marcedes Lewis emerging as a reliable red-zone option.

He gets sacked too much (42 times for the second straight year) and is butterfingers with the rock (14 fumbles, eight lost). Garrard never makes the huge mistakes that cost him a job but also lacks the playmaking ability to win games in real life and in fantasy. There’s little hope of any tailwind for him from the skill players. Maurice Jones-Drew is explosive, but it’s relatively hard to score and generate big yards out of the backfield via the pass. Garrard is a fringe backup/waiver wire scrub who you can pair with an elite QB and hope to find some luck the week you need him. But if you need him for any stretch of weeks, you are very likely beat.

He ballooned up to 250 pounds and was rumored to be on the outs during the draft season, as the Jaguars were reportedly among the many teams enamored with Mark Sanchez. But Garrard has dropped 25 pounds in preparation for training camp. He had previously been a great FAS thrower, but last year had just a 76.5 QB rating on these 11-to-20-yard throws (below average). And the Jaguars were aggressive enough with the play calling, allocating 25 percent of attempts to these downfield throws. There were problems elsewhere, too. His 42 sacks in 535 attempts are too high. We like to see sacks on only one out of about every 20 attempts. Many of these were on ill-timed scrambles when he should have simply gotten rid of the ball and survived to live the next play. The 7.35 YPA on first down and 6.8 on all downs are mediocre. And Garrard was 18th in red zone TDs, behind Shaun Hill of the Niners (who didn’t play a good part of the season). Sure, the wide receivers stunk again, as always. But the QBs bear some responsibility for the Jaguars’ constant foibles at the position. Notice how the great QBs always have receivers who are good or even good enough. That’s no coincidence. Torry Holt is the next experiment. We’re not optimistic, as Garrard is not an upgrade over Marc Bulger, with whom Holt did little in 2008 - though in their defense the Rams offensive line was in shambles. Rookie left tackle Eugene Monroe (Virginia) was well regarded and should help protect Garrard’s blind side. And Garrard will always contribute with his legs – something that raises his floor.

Long before the change was made, we said here last year that Byron Leftwich would soon be carrying a clipboard. But we never expected Garrard to put up the kind of numbers he did after replacing Leftwich: a league-leading 118.9 FAS QB rating, 18 TDs, 3 picks, 7.78 YPA and 8.51 YPA on first downs (96.8 rating). Our major criticism of Garrard in this piece last year – his lack of pocket awareness in light of being sacked every 12 attempts – was addressed. That rate improved to once every 15.5 attempts last year – still not good but getting better. Sure, the Jaguars don't throw enough of the FAS-type passes that clearly are Garrard's game. Garrard can extend plays with his legs and is a reasonable bet to add 250 rushing yards and a couple of TDs on the ground, but isn't really a slash-QB. If he decides to take off less, it at least lessens the injury risk. The Jaguars have the multi-headed RB committee, but Maurice Jones-Drew, especially, can make plays as a receiver. Their defense, while technically sound, is overrated, especially against the pass. The Jaguars receiving corps never seems to work out. But this year, Garrard gets the talented Jerry Porter and fast Troy Williamson with Reggie Williams (10 TDs in 38 catches) and fellow former first-round pick Matt Jones providing great size on third downs (if Jones makes the team). If you're going to use numbers, you have to listen to them when they shout. And they’'e screaming that Gerrard is the value play. Only a return to vintage form by the Jaguars defense or another injury will prevent Garrard from generating 25-to-30 combined passing/receiving TDs in 2008. Keep in mind his 19 total TDs last year came in just 12 games, and he also missed most of another. That's about a 27-TD pace.

Despite posting a 5-5 record last season and throwing for 1,735 yards, Garrard could see himself as the odd man out in the Jaguars' quarterback situation in 2007, especially if the team acquires Daunte Culpepper. His averages of 157 passing yards/game and his 10-9 TD/INT ratio in 2006 left much to be desired, and he never emerged as the Vick-like running threat that many thought him to be. Moreover, the Jaguars seem to have no plans to give Garrard the type of playing time in 2007 that he saw in 2006, ruling out much of his fantasy value.

Heading into 2006, Garrard is all set to back up Leftwich for the fourth consecutive season. The only difference this year is that Garrard is coming in touted as one of the top back-up quarterbacks in the league. This is thanks to his poised play after Leftwich went down late in 2005. Garrard led the Jaguars to a 4-1 record while throwing four touchdowns, rushing for three, and only being intercepted once. With a cannon arm and good speed, he is fully capable of leading the Jaguars if Leftwich is to go down. His abilities also shorten the leash on Leftwich a bit.

The team rewarded Garrard for his solid performances in starting quarterback Byron Leftwich's absence last season by handing him a three-year contract extension in the offseason. The fourth-year pro completed 38 of 72 passes with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in four games. Garrard won't see the field unless Leftwhich goes down, but the team is obviously confident in his ablity to hold down the fort if such an event should occur.

Garrard is returning from intestinal surgery, but has been the most effective quarterback in training camp. Byron Leftwich is the starter, but he's still young and needs to show improvement. File Garrard's name away for now and keep an eye on Leftwich's performance.

The club's confidence in him seemed to be questioned when they selected QB Byron Leftwich with the seventh overall selection in the 2003 draft. Garrard will compete with Leftwich for the backup job to Mark Brunell, but we look for Leftwich to get the more significant playing time should any become available. Especially in the second half of the season.