Tuesday night I participated in my first draft for the 2011-2012 NFL season representing Rotowire. It was an industry draft, snake style, 20 rosters spots and 12 teams. I'll discuss the team I selected, why I took who I did and make some general commentary on interesting picks or trends I saw during the draft. For the heck of it, the league will be played out in a low-maintenance, "best-ball" format but I drafted as if it was a normal weekly league where you change your lineup as you see fit. I had the 10th overall pick and here's my team:
1.10 Calvin Johnson, WR, DET – Andre Johnson went sixth and I have Megatron as the #2 WR on my draft board so I was happy to take him. I strongly considered picking up a running back here – LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden were available. With Johnson, I've got a huge ceiling but that comes with a lower floor than if I went with a running back, generally speaking. Johnson's shown the ability to get the job done despite who's under center and while everyone is asking "if" Matthew Stafford can play a whole season, I'm starting to ask "why can't he?"
2.03 Michael Vick, QB, PHI – I almost never use this high of a draft pick on a quarterback in a league where you start only one. I have Vick and Aaron Rodgers (pick 1.12) as the two top-QBs on my draft board. I know I'll catch some flack for this pick but it's honestly what I'd do. Over his last eight games, he averaged 11.8 points per game on the ground alone. That equates to three thrown touchdown passes or almost three hundred passing yards another immobile quarterback would have to make up and that's not taking into account Vick's passing yards.
3.10 Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Absolutely loved this pick. There's no denying the difference in Austin's production when Romo is throwing the ball to him over anyone else. Before Romo's injury last year (not counting Week 6 when Romo left), Austin had |STAR|at least|STAR| 142 yards in three of the four games and was targeted 11, 12 and 15 times. Oddly, the game that was a dud was against Houston and their elite secondary. Either way, Romo loves him and it wouldn't surprise me to see a top-4 WR season out of Austin which will be great value (he was the 11th overall receiver taken).
4.03 LeGarrette Blount, RB, TB – Blount really became part of the Tampa offense Week 7 and had a significant role until the end of the season. If you look at those final 11 games, Blount rushed for 977 yards (88.9 yards per game) and five touchdowns. When prorating those 11 games into a 16-game season, that would be 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns. Granted, there would be more variables at stake and I shouldn't automatically assume that would happen (fatigue, greater possibility of an injury, etc.). Blount does little in the way of the receiving game (only five receptions) and had a bit of a fumbling problem (4 in 201 carries). That being said he'll see the lion's share of carries on a team with a lot of upside and hopefully improve on a successful rookie season.
5.10 Cedric Benson, RB, CIN – By now, there were very few running backs left who aren't going to be part of a committee. Cincinnati expects to re-sign Benson who is an unsexy but consistent running back. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about his 3.5 YPC last year and seven fumbles. Ok, this may have been my "hold my nose and hope for the best" pick but the next few running backs that went were Marshawn Lynch, Ryan Torain and Joseph Addai. Looking at all those guys, they seem to be in the tier or very close to it. While Bernard Scott is still around Benson should be the main ball carrier for the Bengals.
6.03 Percy Harvin, WR, MIN – While there's a big question mark as to who will be throwing the rock his way, there's no denying Harvin's talent. Harvin even made due with Joe Webb over the last three games, recording 241 receiving yard on 29 targets. He improved his receiving yards in his second year, despite playing through a series of migraines which cost him valuable practice time. If those are no longer an issue, I'd expect Harvin to crack the 1,000-yard mark this season.
7.10 Zach Miller, TE, OAK – Miller was dealing a foot injury that made his overall production last season appear worse than it actually was. Over the first seven games he had 453 receiving yards (65 yards per game) with four touchdowns. Over his final eight games he had 232 receiving yards and one touchdown, dealing with the injury. He was the eighth overall tight end taken, which is right where I had him on my cheat sheet. I didn't like Chris Cooley or Brandon Pettigrew as much which is why I didn't wait on him any longer (Pettigrew and Cooley went in two of next three picks).
8.03 Ryan Grant, RB, GB – I know everyone loves James Starks and he'll be a very trendy sleeper pick this season. The reality is had Grant not been on injured reserve, he could have played in the Super Bowl. While Starks won't be ignored in the Packer backfield, Grant did put up two straight campaigns of 1,200+ rushing yards before last season. I think at least he'll split carries with Starks to start and obviously have the opportunity for more of a workload depending on how the chips fall.
9.10 Mike Williams, WR SEA – Williams was one of the better "feel-good" stories after being considered a bust until last year. He was inconsistent last season as he dealt with an ankle injury. However, the team was impressed enough, inking him to a three-year deal. Only 27, Williams doesn't have quite as many miles as other players on him and should be 100 percent healthy to start the season. In the red zone he proved to be a big target for Matt Hasselbeck in the playoffs, recording three touchdowns in two games. Unquestionably the number one receiver headed into camp, look for Williams to post improved numbers in his second season as a Seahawk.
10.03 Michael Bush, RB, OAK – Despite getting only 158 carries, Bush scored eight touchdowns last season. The three games Darren McFadden missed last year saw Bush rush for 288 yards on 71 carries (96 YPG, 4.1 YPC). I'd easily start him on this team over Benson if I knew Run DMC was out.
11.10 Braylon Edwards, WR NYJ – Believe it or not Edwards is only 28, even though it seems to me that he's been around forever. There are conflicting reports as to whether he'll return to the Jets or not this season and I think as an owner I'd root for him to land somewhere else. The Jets will continue their run-first mentality and Santonio Holmes will likely be WR #1a. A change of scenery to a more pass-oriented team with a weaker defense (leading to higher scoring games) would help his fantasy value a lot.
12.03 Montario Hardesty, RB, CLE – While a lot of owners went with rookie RBs, I tended to go for sophomores who were hyped rookie last year. Hardesty was one of those guys before tearing his ACL. Remember how last season Peyton Hillis (Madden curse!) wore down the stretch? I can't see the Browns letting that happen again which means Hardesty should get some work in from the start.
13.10 Greg Olsen, TE, CHI – It's been rumored that Olsen will be involved more heavily in the offense this season. Cutler still loves to look for his tight end and Olsen may not have to block as much with the Bears selecting Gabe Carimi in the draft.
14.04 Mark Sanchez, QB, NYJ –I'm fine with Sanchez here as my backup QB who'll be in his third season and have one of the better offensive lines in the game. No way was I going to gamble on a rookie QB here; Cam Newton went at pick 15.03.
15.10 Brandon Tate, WR, NE – Everyone expected the Patriots to address the wide receiver position in the draft and instead they loaded up on the backfield. The addition of Nate Solder will allow Tate time to get open downfield as he probably has the best pure speed of any NE receiver.
16.03 Detroit Lions D – I heard they upgraded the defensive line in the draft this year, right? They won't need to blitz to get to the quarterback and opposing teams should have a hard time running on them. This was the ninth defense taken overall.
17.10 Jordan Shipley, WR, CIN – There's Jerome Simpson (pick 10.11) and A.J. Green (pick 7.03) but Shipley played the most downs in the NFL of the three which means something to me. He could have a rookie QB throwing the ball his way or maybe Carson Palmer re-signs.
18.03 Ben Tate, RB, HOU – Sticking with my "hyped rookies from a season ago", I liked Tate a lot before he got hurt last season. At the very least he'll backup Arien Foster and should be 100 percent after injuring his leg/ankle.
19.10 Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, CLE – For a reference point, Greg Little went five rounds earlier at 14.09. Massaquoi has a strong running game going for him and a second-year Colt McCoy may be the best QB he's ever played with.
20.03 Ryan Longwell, K, MIN – He's a kicker and plays his home games indoors. Seriously, it's my last pick.
Notes of interest in general from the draft not praising or knocking any of the picks that took place:
- Arien Foster was the first overall pick with Adrian Peterson going number two. I would have taken AP with the first pick but that's splitting hairs.
- Six quarterbacks were taken in the first two rounds.
- James Starks (80th) went seven picks before Ryan Grant. C.J. Spiller (81st) went five picks before Fred Jackson.
- Ryan Mathews went 28th.
- Daniel Thomas went 37th, Mark Ingram 56th, A.J. Green 75th and Julio Jones 110th.
- Dallas Clark was the second TE taken at 42nd. Austin Collie (60th) went seven picks before Pierre Garcon.
- Sidney Rice (55th) went eight picks before Percy Harvin.
- Terrell Owens went 114th, Chad Ochocinco 120th and Randy Moss 141st.
Overall, I'm happy with the draft. In retrospect, I would have gone a different direction with the Cedric Benson pick. While I'm not happy with that, I'd expect a good #2 running back to emerge from Michael Bush, Ryan Grant, Monterio Hardesty and Ben Tate in case Benson is a total bust.
Any comments, thoughts or criticism?
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