Terrell Owens

Considering the circumstances, Owens' season in Buffalo wasn't all that terrible. Owens averaged 15.1 yards per catch and 7.6 yards per target in the league's 30th ranked passing game, hauled in five receptions of 40 yards or more (tied for 11th) and scored five touchdowns on just 109 targets. In other words, at 36 years old, he was still able to get behind defenses and gash them for big plays. At 6-3, 223, Owens is one of the best redzone targets in league history, and apparently his speed is still largely intact. Owens' focus has been suspect at times - he was again among the league leaders with nine dropped passes - and while he was a model citizen in Buffalo, his history of clashing with teammates is well documented. Owens will turn 37 this fall, but he's also a uniquely gifted, well-conditioned and competitive athlete that might be able to perform at a high level for another season or two. Now with the Bengals, even after the signing of Antonio Bryant, he'll have to compete for his share of targets.

Playing for the conservative Dick Jauron in the inhospitable climate of Buffalo at age 35 will put Owens’ unique talents to the test. Even the great Marvin Harrison, who was just three months older at this time last year than Owens is now, couldn’t bounce back – and that was while playing in a dome and with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. There are some differences, of course. First off, Owens isn’t coming off a major injury, and second, Harrison never had Owens’ unique physical tools. But not many receivers stay productive past age 35, and this alone, apart from the severe downgrade in quarterbacking, climate and offensive philosophy is a risk factor. The question then is whether Owens was already showing signs of age-related decline in 2008. Based on his cosmetic stats you might think so, but keep in mind Tony Romo missed three games, during which time the quarterbacking for Dallas was abysmal. If you remove Owens’ stats from Weeks 7-9, he went 57-952-9 in 13 games. Prorated over a full season, that comes out to 70-1172-11, perhaps not what you had hoped for at the draft table, but certainly not a cause for worry, either. What’s perhaps more troubling is that Owens had trouble coming down with the ball – his 10 drops (fourth) were part of the problem, but they don’t entirely explain why he caught just 49 percent of the balls thrown his way. Put differently, Owens averaged just 7.5 yards per target (25th among the 35 100-target receivers), way down from 9.6 yards per look (third) in 2007. On the positive side, he averaged 15.2 yards per catch, which is actually better than his career mark, and his six receptions of 40 yards or more (all in the 13 Romo games) tied him for sixth. All things considered, Owens’ 2008 numbers are ambiguous, neither confirming that he’s exactly the same player he was during his biggest seasons, nor revealing undeniable signs of decline. As such, we’ll assume the 6-3, 223-pound prototype for the position will still be effective, both down the field and in the red zone, but that the change in system, the downgrade in quarterback and the harsher climate will cost him some production. There’s also the question of how Owens will co-exist with the Bills’ incumbent star wideout, Lee Evans, though at press time, Owens had attended the team’s voluntary conditioning program and promised to be present for all other team activities. And Evans’ and Owens’ skills actually fit together well with Evans doing most of his damage down the field and Owens seeing more frequent and shorter targets, especially in the red zone.

Randy Moss's season for the ages makes it easy to overlook that 2006's leader in touchdown receptions with 13 bettered that mark by two last year. In fact, no receiver over the last eight seasons has been as consistent as Owens near paydirt - he leads the league with 99 scores over that span, and, excluding the 2005 season when he was suspended for nine games, his lowest season total was nine. If Owens scored 15 touchdowns in 15 games while not getting targeted as much as he should from in close, then there's still upside here. The downside, of course, is two-fold. Owens is another year older, and he's been nagged by hamstring and ankle injuries (though he's a famously quick healer). And Owens always has the capacity to blow up at his teammates or coaches at any given moment. But while this latter characteristic might not endear him to the media much, it's only cost fantasy owners once, the year the Eagles suspended him. Owens has a good relationship with quarterback Tony Romo, and just as important, the Cowboys are expected to contend this year, giving Owens more incentive to toe the line and the team more incentive to cut him some slack when he doesn't. And Owens signed a four-year deal in early June, making a disruption of that sort even less likely.

A hamstring injury that cost him most of training camp, a broken finger, an alleged suicide attempt, a league-leading (by a mile) 17 dropped passes and a midseason quarterback change could not prevent Owens from finishing as the No. 2 receiver in standard scoring systems last year. In fairness to Owens, the alarming number of drops were likely related to the broken finger that needed two subsequent surgeries this offseason, and the suicide attempt was later classified as an accidental prescription drug overdose. It’s even possible that he really did have a hamstring injury in camp and wasn’t merely trying to get under the skin of since departed Bill Parcells. At 6-3, 225, Owens has excellent size and surprising deep speed. He’s tough enough to go over the middle, and he’s a dangerous after-the-catch runner who can straight-arm smaller defenders to the ground. Owens is also one of the league’s premier targets near the goal line, hauling in three of five goal-line targets, and nine of 21 red-zone throws for scores. Owens has 84 touchdowns in the last seven years, and he would have had several more had he not been suspended for nine games in 2005. Owens also had four catches of 40-yards or more and is still a threat to get behind defenses down the field. At press time, Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones indicated he’s committed to paying Owens his $3 million roster bonus due in June and that Owens will remain with the team. While Dallas’ offense returns with largely the same cast of characters, it’s hard to know how new coach Wade Phillips and new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will change things. Phillips’ last head coaching job was with the Rob Johnson/Doug Flutie-era Bills. He’s likely to be more involved in the defensive play-calling, and Garrett’s a first-time coordinator. Owens had the splint removed from his surgically-repaired finger in April, and started catching passes again in late May. He’s expected to be 100 percent healthy for the start of training camp.

Other than perhaps a healthy Randy Moss (something we haven’t seen much of the last two years), Owens is the most explosive receiver in the NFL. Consider that he led the league in 40-yard receptions with nine two years ago, and he was on pace to do it again last season with four in just seven games. Of course, the ongoing feud with Donovan McNabb and Eagles management eroded his focus somewhat – he dropped five passes in seven contests, before getting the boot, and he managed to haul in just 51 percent of his targets. But Owens has a fresh start in Dallas, and coach Bill Parcells has had success handling difficult players like Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Bryan Cox. While there’s always the risk of another blow-up, athletes like Owens and Ron Artest seem to temper their bad behavior for awhile, if only to prove that the team that got fed up with them made a mistake. That Owens faces the Eagles twice this season is likely to motivate him even more to be a model citizen – at least for this year. At 6-3, 225, Owens has Larry Fitzgerald’s size, only with more speed. He’s tough enough to go over the middle, and he’s a dangerous after-the-catch runner who can straight-arm smaller defenders to the ground. Owens is also a formidable target near the goal line, scoring on 7-of-17 targets from inside the 20 two years ago and both of his chances from inside the five last season. Owens has 71 touchdowns in the last six years, and he would have had several more had he not been suspended for nine games in 2005. Owens will have to adjust to a new system and a new quarterback this season, and at 32, he’s at an age where he could lose a step. Dallas has some other weapons in Glenn, Jason Witten, Julius Jones and Marion Barber, so the ball might not come his way as often as he’d like. In the end, though, we trust that Parcells knows what he’s got in Owens and will put him to optimal use.

For all the negative publicity his threatened contract holdout has caused, let’s not forget the massive impact Owens had both on the Eagles passing game and the team’s success as a whole. Before Owens went down with a broken ankle in Week 15, the team was 13-1, and quarterback Donovan McNabb was in the midst of a career season, both in terms of per-game and per-pass production. Owens was averaging a touchdown per game, and he led the league with nine pass plays of 40 yards or more despite sitting out the last two and a half games of the year. Moreover, running back Brian Westbrook was running wild in the passing game, with teams unable to key on him while having to put a corner and a safety on Owens. And Owens’ performance in the Super Bowl – nine catches for 122 yards on a gimpy ankle – would have been the stuff of legend had Owens not subsequently called out McNabb for “tiring” in the fourth quarter – and, of course, threatened not to play this season unless the Eagles renegotiate his deal. At 6-3, 226 pounds, Owens is massive for a receiver, and one of the hardest to bring down in the open field, as he will literally shove smaller defensive backs out of the way. He also has surprising speed for a man his size and very good hands. Owens has been especially effective in the red zone throughout his career, and last season was no exception as he scored on 7-of-17 chances from inside the 20, giving him a slightly better percentage than Moss. The last five seasons, Owens has scored 13 or more touchdowns four times, the only exception being the nine he notched in 2003.

It’s been said that Owens will revolutionize the Eagles’ passing game by giving Donovan McNabb a downfield weapon. But Owens has only caught 16 passes thrown over 20 yards in the last two years combined. It’s hard to see that total improving in 2004, as 63 percent of McNabb’s passes last year were thrown less than 10 yards downfield. And Owens appeared to be a player in decline last year, dropping 11 passes, which contributed to his very low completion rate of 55 percent on the 146 times he was targeted. No one knows how McNabb and Owens will work together, but Owens has two advantages that most of the free agent-type of receivers lacked: (1) he’s been a much better player and (2) he’s moving into a similar offense (in fact he said the only thing different about the Eagles playbook was the verbiage). Owens is also the NFL’s best goal-line receiver, with 18 TD receptions since 2000 on passes thrown inside the opponents 10-yard-line. In sum, there’s a high ceiling here but far more risk than with the other premier receivers.

Owens has a legitimate chance to take any pass play to the end zone, short or long, because he's got an amazing combination of power and speed. Sometimes he'll run from defenders, but other times he seems to take joy in just running over them. He's scored 43 times in his last 44 regular-season games, and there's no reason why he won't keep that ratio going into 2003.