This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from last Thursday's games fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are hot, and their win streak may survive Wednesday's tough matchup – just don't get too excited about their fantasy prospects. According to my favorite defensive indicators, opponent points per possession and opponent three-point field goal percentage, the Rockets are either the best or second best defense in the league. Even in their nine games without Dwight Howard (knee), who is doubtful Wednesday, the Rockets remain a top-six defense by any metric I could think of checking.
The biggest problem for the Warriors is that aforementioned opponent three-point field goal percentage. The entire Warriors offense is built around their efficient outside shooting, and they make the fourth-most threes in the league. If the Rockets can disrupt their shooters, the Warriors offense will not be able to produce at their normal levels. The Rockets are best in the league in opponent three-point field goal percentage, both with and without Howard.
Offenses to Use
New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs: The Knicks are bad. The Spurs are good. This matchup has something to like for all Spurs of every type:
Want a scorer? The Spurs are a top 10 offense, while the Knicks are a bottom five defense, says points per possession.
Want an outside shooter? The Knicks are among the five most favorable matchups for opponent three-point field goal percentage and opponent threes per game.
Want a big man? The Spurs are top five in rebounding percentage, while the Knicks are bottom 10.
Want a defensive specialist? The Knicks are in the top 10 for most steals allowed.
The biggest worry for daily gamers looking at the Spurs is always that coach Gregg Popovich will pull his aging stars too early – but with Tony Parker (hamstring) unlikely to play regardless, one of the two main objects of that fear is gone.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets
Second game of a back-to-back: Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Patrick Beverley, HOU (at GS), PG, ($5,100): Beverley has played in eight games this season, and he has sunk multiple threes seven times. Since the start of November, he is averaging 15.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.7 threes. That kind of production far exceeds Beverley's Wednesday price point. Even though he missed more than half the Rockets' games, he has put in a full workload every time he's played.
Other suggestions: Michael Carter-Williams, PHI (at ATL), PG, ($8,900); Zach LaVine*, MIN (vs POR), PG, ($5,000); Steve Blake, POR (at MIN), PG, ($3,000)
*Only if Mo Williams is inactive.
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI (vs BKN), SG, ($7,300): It might seem like I recommend Jimmy Butler every chance I get, but it only seems that way because I actually do recommend Jimmy Butler every chance I get. Of the 186 qualified players included in my analysis, Butler ranks as the most chronically underpriced player in the league. His average p/K (points per thousand dollars of salary) is only second to Mo Williams, and Butler has recorded a p/K above 4.75 an amazing 14 times in 18 appearances – tied for best in the league. Wednesday marks a continuation of this underpriced trend: against a favorable opponent, Butler costs less than his recent average.
Danny Green, SA (vs NY), SG, ($6,000): When I recommend targeting the Spurs, Green is exactly the type of player I have in mind: a two-way role player capable of contributing in rebounds, steals, and threes (all vulnerabilities for the Knicks, as noted above). Green is important enough to log reliable minutes, but is not so crucial to the Spurs long-term success that he risks a late-game benching in blowouts. I don't love how expensive he is – this is the most Green has cost all season – but that's the only thing I can find to complain about.
Other suggestions: Kyle Korver, ATL (vs PHI), SG, ($5,900)
Small Forward
Draymond Green, GS (at HOU), SF, ($6,300): While I'm nervous about using any of the Warriors on Wednesday, Green is best positioned for a strong showing. The Rockets will be without Kostas Papanikolaou (knee), and Howard is doubtful, leaving their corps of big men understaffed and undersized. DraftKings calls Green a small forward, but he is used almost exclusively as a power forward, at least while David Lee is out. Green is a powerful stretch-4 playing against overworked and/or out of position backups.
Other suggestions: K.J. McDaniels, PHI (at ATL), SF, ($5,800); Donatas Motiejunas, HOU (at GS), SF, ($5,200)
Power Forward
Robert Covington, PHI (at ATL), PF, ($4,300): Who? If you haven't heard of him yet, it might be time to get familiar. Covington has averaged 21 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.0 threes in 29.3 minutes per game over his last three outings. It's easy to believe that an unknown 76er could produce big numbers filling in for an injured starter, but none of the 76er big men are hurt. While old-fashioned standard league fantasy players may exercise caution with Covington - the team has been forced to play some bigger lineups while guards Alexey Shved (hip) and Tony Wroten (knee) are out – daily players have no reason to hesitate. At least for now, Covington has passed Brandon Davies on the depth chart.
Other suggestions: Anthony Davis, NO (at DAL), PF, ($11,700); Pau Gasol, CHI (vs BKN), PF, ($9,000)
Center
Tyson Chandler, DAL (vs NO), C, ($7,100): If Nikola Vucevic remains out, then both his backup (Kyle O'Quinn) and his would-have-been opponent (Marcin Gortat) are more desirable than Chandler. But if Vucevic is active – sending O'Quinn to the bench and giving Gortat a more challenging matchup – it becomes a tough night to find a center whose production matches his price. So I turn to ol' reliable Chandler. His cost is a little too high, but at least his workload and production levels are usually consistent. Don't dwell on his poor Tuesday outing – Marc Gasol is about as challenging as matchups get, and Omer Asik will be a much easier foe.
Other suggestions: Marcin Gortat**, WAS (at ORL), C, ($7,300); Kyle O'Quinn**, ORL (vs WAS), C, ($4,500)
**Only if Nikola Vucevic is inactive.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Vitor Faverani (knee)
Joe Johnson (illness)
Brook Lopez (back)
Andrei Kirilenko (personal)
Joakim Noah (ankle)
Doug McDermott (knee)
Jeff Taylor (suspension)
Raymond Felton (ankle)
Randy Foye (quad)
David Lee (hamstring)
Paul George (leg)
George Hill (quad)
Ian Mahinmi (foot)
Kostas Papanikolaou (knee)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Isaiah Canaan (ankle)
Chris Anderson (ankle)
Ricky Rubio (ankle)
Nikola Pekovic (ankle)
Kevin Martin (wrist)
Ronny Turiaf (hip)
Eric Gordon (shoulder)
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring)
Cleanthony Early (knee)
Aaron Gordon (foot)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Jason Richardson (foot)
Tony Wroten (knee)
C.J. McCollum (finger)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Martell Webster (back)
Game-Time Decision
Mirza Teletovic (hip) is questionable.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (foot) is expected to play Wednesday.
Taj Gibson (ankle) is expected to play Wednesday.
Monta Ellis (elbow) is a game-time decision. He played through the ailment on Tuesday, and appears likely to play Wednesday.
JaVale McGee (leg) is a game-time decision.
Kenneth Faried (back) is a game-time decision.
Jusuf Nurkic (personal) was originally expected to rejoin the team for Wednesday's game, but there is not yet an update confirming that this is still accurate.
Nate Robinson (back) is game-time decision.
Andrew Bogut (knee) is questionable.
James Harden (back) is questionable.
Dwight Howard (knee) is doubtful, but he has shown significant improvement. Though it appears unlikely, there is a chance he plays Wednesday.
Francisco Garcia (calf) is questionable.
Reggie Bullock (ankle) is doubtful.
Jordan Farmar (back) is doubtful.
Chris Douglas-Roberts (Achilles) is doubtful.
Josh McRoberts (knee) is a game-time decision.
Mo Williams (back) is a game-time decision.
Mitch McGary (foot) is a game-time decision.
Nikola Vucevic (back) is questionable.
Alexey Shved (hip) is a game-time decision.
Will Barton (illness) is a game-time decision.
Tony Parker (hamstring) is questionable.
Tiago Splitter (calf) is a game-time decision.
Nene Hilario (knee) is a game-time decision.
