World Baseball Classic Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

2023 World Baseball Classic Betting Preview: Odds, Best Bets

The 2017 World Baseball Classic was a breakout event for the tournament. Team USA took the competition more seriously than ever and sent a strong team, eventually cruising to an 8-0 victory over Puerto Rico in the finals. It wasn't the smoothest path to get there, as Adam Jones and co. dropped a group-stage game against the Dominican Republic as well as a second-round game against Puerto Rico before their victory in the rematch.

Fans had to wait two extra years to see the latest installment of this increasingly competitive tournament, as the tournament was originally scheduled for 2021, but it's finally here, with Cuba and the Netherlands kicking things off in Taiwan at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 8. Superstars seem more interested in participating than ever before, with nine of the first 14 players by NFBC ADP appearing in the event, representing five different countries:

MLB Superstars in the WBC

What is the World Baseball Classic?

The competition begins with round-robin play between four pools of five teams (up from four pools of four in previous installments) which will take place in Taiwan, Japan, Arizona and Florida. The top two teams in each group will advance to the knockout stage, which takes place in Miami with the exception of two of the four quarterfinals, which will be played in Tokyo. For those interested in betting the tournament, keep these three things in mind:

1. Playoff baseball played over five- and seven-game series always trends towards closer to a 50/50 proposition than you might think. Single-elimination baseball tilts even more in that direction.
2. Players will be taking these games much more seriously than they take spring training exhibition contests, but it's still early March, so no one is in midseason form. In particular, don't expect any pitcher to be used heavily. Starters in the opening round of the 2017 tournament lasted an average of 3.43 innings, with that figure jumping up to 4.11 in the knockout rounds, so don't weigh them as heavily as you're used to.
3. The gaps in talent between the best and worst teams in this tournament are vast. So vast, in fact, that there's a mercy rule in place for the group stage. If a team is up by 15 runs after five innings, or 10 runs after seven, the game will be over. Is anyone else getting flashbacks to high school?

Overall, expect a few blowouts but overall much more variance than we're used to in baseball, given both the brief length of the tournament and the fact that we don't entirely know where each player stands with regards to their personal preparedness at this point of the year. With that in mind, I'm going to present both my predictions and my best bets, which may look like they conflict in many cases. My predictions reflect what I think is the most likely outcome, but the odds often reflect much more faith in the favorites than I'm willing to have in a tournament like this one. In many cases, taking a chance on the second-best team finishing first or the third-best team finishing second appears to be the best deal, though the bottom few teams of the tournament may be lucky to keep games going past five innings in some cases.

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Odds to Win WBC 2023 Pool A

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 7; "Impact MLB Players" are defined for this article as players projected by ATC for a league-average or better wRC+ or ERA, which is admittedly unfair to glove-first players; ADP is taken from all NFBC drafts over the last month

We start things off with by far the most evenly-matched group. In every other pool, the odds give the favorites at least a 75 percent chance to top the group, but here, Cuba's implied odds sit at just 47.6 percent. Even those comparatively modest odds may overstate their chances, as Cuba's Serie Nacional isn't as strong Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO. Players who have defected from Cuba are allowed to join the team for the first time, but Robert and Yoan Moncada are the only impact additions from that group. Note that players who don't play in MLB or the minors won't show up as "Impact MLB Players" on the table above due to the lack of available projections, but no one else on the Cuban team would likely project as an above-average MLB player except Moinelo, a reliever with a 2.05 ERA in six NPB seasons. (Keep this in mind for Japan and Korea in Pool B, however.)

Netherlands and Italy should both prove strong challengers, with both countries edging out Cuba in terms of total players who appeared at the MLB level last season as well as in the number of players expected to stand out in 2023. The two nations are the powerhouses of European baseball, with club teams from one of the two countries winning nearly every European Cup, though neither the Italian nor the Dutch squad consists primarily of players born in Europe. While there are some locals playing for the Italian team, the bulk of the team is made up of Italian-Americans, most of whom play in the minors. The Dutch team features a few more players from Honkball Hoofdklasse, with the addition of several major- and minor-league players mainly from Aruba and Curaçao. Netherlands has been a semifinalist twice in the past, but Andrelton Simmons and Didi Gregorius aren't as young as they once were.

Even Taiwan and Panama aren't merely here to make up numbers. The Taiwanese roster features a few current and former MLB players like Yu Chang and Tzu-Wei Lin but is primarily made up of the best talent from the island's local professional league such as Li Lin and Jyun-Yue Tseng. The CPBL as a whole is generally considered to be around Low-A or High-A level, though this team of course consists of only the best players from the league. They could likely go toe-to-toe with the Serie Nacional players and minor-league players in the squads above. Panama's roster includes several players who play at home as well, but the roster is full of minor-leaguers and borderline MLB players. The Panamanian pitching staff has more pitchers with MLB experience than most other long shots, with Barria joined by Paolo Espino, Justin Lawrence, Randall Delgado and Humberto Mejia. It shouldn't be a shock if any team in this pool beats anyone else in a given game.

My Prediction: Netherlands, Cuba, Italy, Taiwan, Panama

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool A 

• Netherlands to Win Group (+250)
• Italy to Win Group (+450)

Cuba is every bit as good as the two teams I've picked here, but the odds overstate the gap between them and the rest of the pool. Keep in mind that Cuba went 0-3 in the previous tournament, including a 14-1 loss to the Netherlands. The addition of a pair of good White Sox and a handful of Triple-A guys isn't enough to place them clearly in front of their closest challengers. The Italian pitching staff makes me a little nervous about this pick — Andre Pallante looks like the ace, and Matt Harvey is the most recognizable name — but since pitching is going to be a weakness for a large number of rosters in this pool and in the entire field, I'm willing to back Vinnie Pasquantino to lead an upset run. Italy to advance (+125) looks decent as well, especially if you've also picked Netherlands to win, and even long-shot bets on Taiwan or Panama advancing don't seem crazy.

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Odds to Win WBC 2023 Pool B

In stark contrast to the very balanced Pool A, the favorites in Pool B stand far above the rest of the group. As a result, you aren't getting much payout by betting on near-locks Japan and Korea to make it through the group. Both teams consist primarily of players from the Pacific powerhouses' domestic leagues, with a small number of strong MLB players sprinkled in. A relative lack of MLB talent signifies far less for these two countries than for any other team in the tournament, as the NPB and KBO are the two best foreign leagues in the world. NPB is considered to be between Triple-A and the majors in overall quality, with KBO perhaps a bit above Double-A, though both of these teams feature exclusively the best players from those leagues, so expect Japan's roster to be full of MLB-caliber talent alongside proven MLB stars, while much of Korea's roster consists of players who could at minimum perform well at Triple-A.

Neither Japan nor Korea has much reason to worry about any of the remaining three teams. The only player on the other three rosters who appeared in the big leagues last year was Australian outfielder Aaron Whitefield, who went 0-for-11 with five strikeouts for the Angels. The Aussies feature a handful of minor leaguers, though the majority of the team plays in the local Australian Baseball League. China and Czechia lean even more heavily on domestic players, plus former MLB utility man Eric Sogard in the latter case. Australia and China are each 2-10 all-time at the tournament, while the Czech Republic is making its debut appearance.

It's unlikely that Pool B will turn into anything more than warmup games for Japan and Korea, but it still offers intrigue for American fans, particularly those who play in dynasty leagues. Both rosters are full of stars in their respective countries, many of whom who could look to make the jump to MLB in the near future. Japan's roster includes standout starters Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Roki Sasaki as well as slugging first baseman Munetaka Murakami, while Korea features Jung Hoo Lee, a 24-year-old with a 7.8 percent career strikeout rate who suddenly hit 23 homers last year and could sign stateside next winter. Team Korea also includes KBO stars whom readers might remember from when the league was broadcast on ESPN in 2020, including catcher Eui Ji Yang, first baseman Baek Ho Kang, outfielder Sung Bum Na and lefty Chang Mo Koo.

My Prediction: Japan, Korea, Australia, Czechia, China

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool B 

• Korea to Win Group (+400)

With none of Australia, China or Czechia likely to stand a chance against the top two teams in the group, we're left with little in the way of interesting bets. The payouts on Japan and Korea advancing are too minimal to be worth betting, and Japan's -650 odds to top the group are similarly unappealing. Japan should certainly be favored over Korea, as I noted in my predicted finish, but I don't buy that they have an 86.7 percent chance to win a given game between the two, and that lone game is likely to decide the outcome of Pool B play. The two countries have met eight times at the World Baseball Classic, with the all-time series tied at 4-4. Japan has had more success recently in other tournaments and is correctly the favorite, but realistically probably beats Korea at most six or seven times out of 10, not nearly nine out of 10 times as their odds require.

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Odds to Win 2023 WBC Pool C

Pool A has at least three contenders for the top spot and Pool B has two, but Pool C realistically only has one. Team USA is loaded with MLB superstars, as you'd expect, to the point that listing out just a few of them seems reductive. Looking at just players going in the first two rounds of 15-team fantasy drafts, you'll find Trea Turner, Kyle Tucker, Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and J.T. Realmuto. The American lineup should be an absolute nightmare for WBC pitching staffs and offers our best chance of seeing the mercy rule invoked.

The American pitching staff isn't quite as imposing, particularly in the rotation. Far fewer top pitchers were willing to play in meaningful games in March, but while the likes of Lance Lynn, Brady Singer, Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly aren't as scary as the names on the offensive side of the ball, they're more than capable of mowing down most WBC lineups. Plus, remember that starting pitching is de-emphasized at this tournament. If the Americans want to ask for six innings from the bullpen in a knockout game, they could do a lot worse than chaining together Jason Adam, Daniel Bard, Adam Ottavino, David Bednar, Ryan Pressly and Devin Williams.

That's not to say that the rest of the group is weak. I'd favor Mexico to win Pool A if they had the fortune to be placed in that group. Mexico hasn't advanced beyond the first round in the last two tournaments, but this year's squad contains plenty of strong MLB players. Julio Urias-Patrick Sandoval, Taijuan Walker and Jose Urquidy give the team a rotation on par with even the United States, and while the lineup isn't full of All-Stars, Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias, Randy Arozarena, Alex Verdugo make for a competitive core. Canada and Colombia, likewise, feature a handful of notable MLB talents surrounded by mostly minor leaguers. Both could have a shot at taking down Pool A and could at least steal second in this group if they can upset Mexico. Great Britain primarily features players born in the United States, with the Bahamas (eight) edging out the United Kingdom (six) for second place. Most of the team plays in the minors, with a handful playing in college or independent ball.

My Prediction: USA, Mexico, Colombia, Canada, Great Britain

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool C 

• USA to Win Group (-450)
• Colombia to Advance (+500)

Historically, the USA hasn't taken the World Baseball Classic all that seriously, recording a combined 10-10 record across the first three iterations of the tournament, with two of those 10 defeats coming against Mexico. Even while winning the most recent edition, the Americans lost twice. It's absolutely not out of the question that even this spectacular roster drops a game here, making a long-shot bid on Mexico at +400 look somewhat appealing. If I viewed this pool as effectively a two-team contest, as discussed with Pool B above, I'd bet Mexico, just as I sided with Korea. But while I find it very hard to imagine Korea losing to the likes of Australia, China and Czechia, it's not at all hard to envision Colombia or Canada squeaking past Mexico. Colombia has a bit more MLB talent than Canada does and also gives a better return, so I'll go with them as my preferred option to sneak into second. Mexico at -300 to advance just doesn't give enough payout, even if I think it's more likely than not that they do indeed go through, so I'd either bet on Mexico to finish first or avoid them entirely.

UPDATE: Colombia's ace Jose Quintana had to withdraw due to a stress fracture in his rib. It's a blow to their chances of advancing, but their odds have shifted from +450 to +500 as a result, so it's still a fine play. Remember that Quintana was only likely to throw three or four innings in pool play.

Odds to Win WBC 2023 Pool D

Pool D is the only group that features three teams which have previously made the semifinals, yet the Dominican Republic stands as clear favorites. Their path may be tougher than that of fellow favorites Japan and the USA, but they're nonetheless considered the team to beat for the entire tournament according to DraftKings. The Dominican lineup may not be quite as elite as the Americans', as the team has a comparably modest four hitters going in the first four rounds — Julio Rodriguez, Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers —  but in Sandy Alcantara, the Dominican Republic has the best ace in the tournament. The Americans may be stronger in the late innings, but not by much, as Bryan Abreu, Camilo Doval, Carlos Estevez, Hector Neris, Rafael Montero and Gregory Soto make for a fearsome high-leverage unit.

Venezuela and Puerto Rico certainly have the chance to trip the favorites up, however. Venezuela in particular has one of the strongest sets of top-end talent in the tournament. Ronald Acuna, Salvador Perez and Jose Altuve lead the lineup, while Luis Garcia, Pablo Lopez and Jesus Luzardo headline a pitching staff which has Jose Alvarado to close games. Venezuela may have more gaps in its roster than the US and the DR do, but they have every chance of beating either North American powerhouse in a one-off game. Puerto Rico is positioned similarly but will need to rely on more fringe big leaguers and minor leaguers to round out the roster. With Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez leading the offense and Edwin Diaz closing games for Marcus Stroman and Jose Berrios, they can give anyone in the tournament a game.

Israel isn't exactly a traditional baseball powerhouse, but similarly to Italy and Great Britain, the WBC's relaxed player eligibility rules give the country a large pool of American-born talent to choose from. Israel swept through the group stage in 2017, beating Netherlands and South Korea in the process, and a similar squad full of mostly minor leaguers (including Matt Mervis) could make noise this year. Unfortunately, they've been stuck with a tough group, and the odds of them beating two of the three teams ahead of them seem low. Nicaragua is appearing in the tournament for the first time and features a team of mostly local players and minor leaguers. They're unlikely to be particularly competitive in this difficult group.

My Prediction: Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Israel, Nicaragua

World Baseball Classic Betting Picks for Pool D 

• Venezuela to Win Group (+330)

I was torn on this one, as I think the odds are set well. The Dominican Republic is rightly considered a clear favorite, but Venezuela has plenty of elite talent and some depth of its own. If you think they can beat the Dominican Republic one out of every four times —which doesn't seem like too tall a task — it's hard to bet the favorites at such a small payout. That's not to say that I feel confident Venezuela will avoid the upset against Puerto Rico, but Puerto Rico's +100 odds to advance from the group aren't nearly attractive enough. If I were to bet an underdog, I like Israel at +1200 more than I like any of the similarly long shots in other groups.

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World Baseball Classic Knockout Stage Predictions

When considering bets for the overall champion, keep in mind the structure of the knockout round. One half of the bracket features the winner of Pool A against the runner-up in Pool B and the winner of Pool D against the runner-up in Pool C. The other side pits the winners of Pool B and Pool C against the runners up in Pool A and Pool D, respectively. If everything plays out according to the odds, the two halves of the bracket will look like this:

Alternatively, if you believe my predictions (not best bets) above, the bracket will look like this:

Both outcomes see Japan, the USA and Venezuela — three of the four strongest teams per DraftKings' odds — fall on the right side of the bracket, which may explain why the Dominican Republic has the slight edge as overall favorites. Of course, if either the Dominican Republic or the United States suffers an upset in the group stage and finishes second in their pool, they'll likely square off against each other in the Quarterfinals. A Dominican defeat against Venezuela in what will be both team's first game of the tournament could mean that the DR's path to the finals goes through USA and Japan instead of Mexico and a team like South Korea, Cuba or the Netherlands. Likewise, if South Korea upsets Japan in the group stage, it would swap where the two countries fall in the bracket, moving Japan to the Dominican side. The Dominican Republic's hypothetical schedule advantage should therefore be seen as tenuous at best, as it only exists if everything goes according to plan.

With that in mind, here are the three teams I'd consider betting on to win it all:

United States (+250): There's very little to separate the United States and Dominican Republic in terms of overall roster talent, which already makes the USA's +250 payout more attractive than the Dominican Republic's +210. I'd give the US the slight edge in the lineup and bullpen, and while I'd prefer the Dominican rotation, we can't forget how much this tournament diminishes the importance of starting pitching. Japan (+275) isn't a team I'm considering strongly, even if the country takes international baseball more seriously than most. I'm very excited to watch the team, but there should be more of a gap in the odds between the two squads of MLB All-Stars and what's essentially the NPB All-Star team. The USA's +250 odds don't seem amazing for a 20-team tournament in which they'll play at most seven games, but when you look again over all the names on the American roster, it feels like a bargain. 

Venezuela (+900): While Venezuela's roster features a few more players whose names will be met with "Who?" from most fans, they join the US and the Dominican Republic as the only countries able to field exclusively MLB-caliber rosters. With a full 18 players on the team projected to be at least league-average at the MLB level and a healthy contingent of stars leading the way, they won't be significantly overmatched against anyone in the tournament. That initial Pool D matchup against the Dominican Republic will be huge for their chances. If they win, they could find themselves on the opposite side of the bracket from the Dominican Republic, United States and Japan. At that point, they'd be favored to reach the championship game, and while they'll almost certainly be underdogs against any potential finals opponent, they'll have a fighting chance.

Mexico (+1800): Yes, I had Colombia advancing ahead of Mexico as one of my Best Bets for Pool C, but the long-shot odds for Mexico to win it all are far more appealing than their -300 payout to advance beyond the group stage. Mexico comes away looking quite good in a head-to-head comparison with Puerto Rico (+1100). Mexico is projected to finish second in their group, while Puerto Rico is projected to finish third, and it's Mexico who has the very narrow edge in both total MLB talent and impact MLB players. Plus, their most likely path through the knockout rounds features just one of the three biggest favorites, while Puerto Rico would likely have to face both the US and Japan. Mexico won't need a single upset to reach the group stage, and once they're there, their strong rotation should stand out more than it will in pool play.