Todd's Takes: Opening Arguments and Easy Graders

Opening Arguments

I flipped to the Oakland Athletics-Texas Rangers towards the end, catching the Oakland broadcast. The Athletics had just extended their lead and were calling on Trevor May to seal the deal. The announcers were talking about how good Freddy Tarnok looked as the primary pitcher and how this could be his role, at least this season. They said the ploy by manager Mark Kotsay clearly had the Rangers off balance.

I'll spare the silliness of that comment, but it did get me thinking. How interested should we be in deploying the primary pitcher in our fantasy lineup? We all know the chances of a win are better since the follower does not have to stay in for five frames, but how often does the bulk reliever capture a win?

Before presenting some numbers, some teams use the tactic strategically, while others do it out of necessity. My favorite approach is when the opener and bulk reliever throw with opposite hands. This often forces the opposing manager to use a sub-optimal lineup, especially if they rely on platoons.

To Oakland's credit, using Austin Pruitt in front of Tarnok was clever, even though they are both right-handed. Tarnok has struggled in his four MLB appearances, but he showed good stuff in the minors. Letting the veteran Pruitt navigate through the top of the potent Rangers lineup allowed Tarnok to come in to face the bottom of the order. It almost backfired after No. 8 hitter Josh Smith doubled off Tarnok to lead off the third, but the rookie fanned Ezequiel Duran and, channeling the Oakland announcers, gained some footing.

OK, back to the question. The data is crude in that I scraped as best I could when determining the games started by an opener. What follows is the number games in which each team deployed opener, and how many of those games they won. For what it's worth, the overall record in these games is 69-89.

I didn't delineate team wins from wins by the primary pitcher, so there could be some discrepancies, but at least for the rest of this season, I'm interested when the Giants or Rays deploy an opener. Of course, both clubs have winning records, but still, the winning percentage is impressive.

Backing out the Giants and Rays results, the winning percentage for the rest of the league is .387. Your mileage may vary, but a level that low counters the, "Hey, he doesn't need to last five innings" argument. I'd rather deploy a dominant middle reliever.

(Fewer) Errors of Our Ways

Recently, in The Athletic, Andy McCullough and Zack Meisel wrote a piece entitled, "In MLB, plays that were once errors are now hits, as players wonder why." If you subscriber, it's a great read.

I heard multiple announcers reference the article while watching the Wednesday games, so while I am uncomfortable talking about stuff behind a paywall, the fact there are fewer errors being scored is fair game, and as the title implies, the notion is that official scoring has become more lenient, at least in terms of rewarding batters and not penalizing fielders. Pitchers, of course, aren't happy.

To be honest, neither am I. Like we need another variable to consider when reverse engineering the season to get an idea of the effect of shift legislation, etc.

I thought about trying to calculate league batting averages over the years using a normalized error determination, but then decided that's a project better suited for the off-season. I did, however, look up the number of errors per game over the past several seasons.

This isn't total errors, but specifically batters reaching on an error. Sure enough, the number has been in steady decline since 2020. The referenced piece opines why, but you'll have to read it yourself.

The number of errors will affect ERA, but there are so many other factors, seeing how fewer errors influences ERA isn't useful. Normally, we don't care much about the ratio of earned runs to unearned runs, but some of the expected stats formulas use total runs. Left on base percentage and quality starts come to mind, as well as the Bill James Pythagorean Theorem for winning percentage. These are all useful when generating player projections.

Intuitively, fewer errors should manifest more earned runs (fewer unearned runs). Here are the yearly percentage of earned runs over the same time period as above.

Indeed, there are fewer unearned runs, though I figured the ratio would be higher. Just something else to thing about.

Box Score Blitz: Wednesday August 9

• MIA 5, CIN 4: Who would have thought this matchup would hold such significant wild card implications?... Graham Ashcraft has registered seven quality starts over his last eight outings, though Wednesday's went for naught as his bullpen let him down. Ashcraft's strikeouts are still low, those he's been teasing an uptick over the second half... Josh Bell's two homers gives him three since being acquired by Miami. He's batting .323/.400/.677 since donning a Marlins uniform... Following a pair of rough outings after being acquired by the Marlins, David Robertson has righted the ship with saves on Tuesday and Wednesday... Christian Encarnacion-Strand slugged his second homer in three games, but he's also fanned at a 42.1 percent clip over his past five games.
• MIL 7, COL 6 (F/10): Mark Canha's 10th inning double keyed a back-and-forth game that should have been extended at least another inning, but Canha scored on a two-out throwing error by Ezequiel Tovar. Canha's double was his only hit in five at-bats. It gave him a .176 average since being acquired at the trade deadline. So much for the change of scenery/park upgrade narrative. There is time for Canha to turn it around, but there are more reliable fantasy options at the ready.
• OAK 2, TEX 0: As mentioned, Oakland deployed the opener-primary pitcher combo, though they didn't switch handedness. Tarnok secured the win with fewer than five frames. He's still a guy to just track in mixed league, though AL only rebuilders may want to pick him up on the cheap as a potential keeper... It was wasted, but the combination of the newly acquired duo of Jordan Montgomery posting a quality start, then Chris Stratton following with two scoreless frames bodes well in the Rangers pursuit of a playoff berth.
• DET 9, MIN 5: Six Tigers batters recorded a multiple-hit game with both of Spencer Torkelson's knocks leaving the yard. It isn't reflected in his numbers, but Torkelson has taken a step foward. His Statcast page is bleeding, with improvements in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate. His .468 xSLG is 90 points higher than it was last season, not to mention far ahead of this year's .406 slugging percentage. Torkelson is someone to target down the stretch, as well as an underpriced cornerman next year. He's especially attractive as an acquisition in a keeper league... Normally, nine strikeouts with just one walk in five stanzas portends a solid outing, but Bailey Ober surrendered 11 of Detroit's 17 hits. Seven of the safeties were of the hard-hit variety (four over 100 mph), so it wasn't a matter of being victimized by bloops and bleeders.
• STL 6, TB 4: Well, it doesn't always work. Jalen Beeks gave up two runs in two innings as the opener, followed by Kevin Kelly yielding three in his two frames... On the other side, Dakota Hudson wasn't dominant, and he surrendered seven hits including a pair of homers, but he limited Tampa Bay to three runs over five innings... Giovanny Gallegos collected the save, with JoJo Romero grabbing a hold... Jose Siri slugged a pair of homers, but before getting too excited, he's fanning at a 45.1 percent clip since July 1, including 47.6 percent over the past 12 games, in which he's struck out at least once in each game.
• PHI 7, WSH 0: Weston Wilson slammed 25 homers and swiped 23 bags with Triple-A Lehigh before the 28-year-old career minor leaguer was called up to The Show. With his family in attendance, Wilson went deep in his first MLB at-bat. The Nationals were so intimidated, they walked Wilson twice, helping him score three runs... Is Trea Turner salvaging his season? Yesterday's 2-for-4 effort extended his hitting streak to six games, over which he's posted a .391/.417/.696 line... Five batters hit the ball over 100 mph against Michael Lorenzen. For the game, Washington's hard hit rate was 45.5 percent. Lorenzen's strikeout rate was a low 16.6 percent while his walk rate was a bloated 12.9 percent... Oh yeah, Lorenzen threw a no-hitter.
• HOU 8, BAL 2: A pair of two run singles, one from Jose Altuve and the other from Alex Bregman broke open a close game in the eighth inning. This is typically Yennier Cano territory, but with Felix Bautista in need of an off day, Cano was being held for a possible save... Cristian Javier wasn't sharp, walking three with only three strikeouts in five frames, but he mustered his first win since June 3... Jack Flaherty managed to fan eight with just two walks in his five stanzas, but he gave up six hits and left the game with the Orioles down 3-2... Austin Hays went deep for the first time since June 9. Hopefully, his early-week injury triggered his removal from mixed-league lineups, but if not it's best to find a more productive bat, even if it means dropping him. It's that time of the season.
• ATL 6, PIT 5: Max Fried extended his scoreless streak since being activated off the IL to nine innings, but the floodgates opened in the fourth as the Pirates put up a four spot to tie the game... Ke'Bryan Hayes, who was installed at leadoff, hit a homer and collected three RBI for the second straight game. Batting first may have been a one-time thing, or maybe he'll stay there against lefty pitching. Hayes patience remains sketchy, but he's hitting the ball harder, with more loft this season. He'll never be a slugger, but there's fledgling pop in his stick... On June 6, Michael Harris II was slashing .163/.246/.244. After a 3-for-4 effort, he now sits at .292/.340/.471. He got there with a .370/.398/.608 line over 53 games.
• NYM 4, CHC 3: After Pete Alonso homered three times in the first two games of the series, there was no way the Cubs would pitch to the Polar bear, right? Wrong. Alonso clubbed his fourth long ball in the past three games. As was expected based on his batted ball profile, Alonso's average has been climbing. Over the past 24 games, his line is .284/.356/.659... Adam Ottavino was tasked with locking down a 4-2 lead, but after giving up a run, Phil Bickford came in and delivered. It's premature to pick up Bickford and his 5.83 ERA for speculative saves.
• BOS 4, KC 3: Working with just three days of rest, Nick Pivetta delivered five innings of two run ball, both coming off the bat of MJ Melendez. When he wasn't allowing Melendez to take him yard, Pivetta fanned eight... Melendez also homered in the first game of the series, giving him four over the past four games. For those keeping score at home, Melendez has squatted only 10 times this season, so he's likely to begin next season with just outfield eligibility.
• TOR 1, CLE 0: Toronto flipped the script after falling 1-0 to the Guardians on Tuesday. Kevin Gausman wasn't dominant, but six punchouts with no walks in seven stanzas will win a lot of games... Blue Jays manager John Schneider took a chance in the ninth. Instead of turning to Jordan Hicks to start the frame, he brought in southpaw Tim Mayza to face lefty-swinging Steven Kwan, whose platoon splits aren't especially exaggerated. Mayza retired Kwan, but then had to face switch-hitters Andres Gimenez and Jose Ramirez. Gimenez's splits are also neutral, though Ramirez fares much better versus right-handed pitching. On paper the maneuver made sense, though it does suggest Mayza may factor into the save picture while Jordan Romano is out... Kole Calhoun was the only Cleveland hitter with multiple knocks. He'll play some first base while Josh Naylor is out. Yes, I have him active on a draft and hold team. IYKYK... More relevant is the chance Ramon Laureano takes playing time from Myles Straw. Laureano was 0-for-3 with a whiff, though he knocked in the only run on Tuesday. 
• CHW 9, NYY 2: Working as the follower was not the elixir for Luis Severino as he continued to struggle... Mike Clevinger, on the other hand, posted his first quality start since May 17, fanning six in six stanzas. Clevinger has a 2.25 ERA in three starts since coming off the IL, though he's punched out only 11 in those 16 innings. Clevinger could be an option in AL-only, but the low strikeouts and team context shun any mixed-league allure... Luis Robert Jr. left the contest after one at bat with a sprained finger. He's considered day-to-day.
• LAA 4, SF 1: After leaving his previous start with finger cramping, Shohei Ohtani posted a quality start, rendering just one unearned run over six frames, though he walked three with just five punchouts... Mike Moustakas' 2-for-4 effort raised his line since the break to .301/.320/.538... The Giants' acumen with deploying an opener and primary pitcher was evident after opener Ryan Walker fanned three in the first followed by four frames of one-run ball from Sean Manaea. However, Tristan Beck yielded three runs in three stanzas. Beck has been effective lately, so expect the Giants to keep him in the mix... After the Giants put a five spot on Carlos Estevez on Monday, Estevez rebounded with his 24th save.
• LAD 2, ARI 0: Starters Bobby Miller and Merrill Kelly both delivered six scoreless innings. The Dodgers bullpen completed the shutout, but Kyle Nelson gave up the only two tallies of the game, courtesy of a David Peralta two-run single... Peralta has flourished in his platoon role, with the Dodgers. He's posted a .818 OPS over the past week, with seven RBI. In leagues where playing matchups is encouraged, Peralta should be in the mix.
• SEA 6, SD 1: Despite pedestrian numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A, Emerson Hancock was promoted to replace the injured Bryan Woo (forearm). He gave the Mariners five frames, surrendering just one run. He walked three with three strikeouts. The effort will probably have him on some FAAB waterfalls, but I need to see more before I'm ready to sign off on Hancock... Seattle's bullpen logged four scoreless stanzas while their batters scored four runs off the usually reliable Steven Wilson... The key blow was Cal Raleigh's eighth homer since the break. He's fanning at a 34.6 percent clip in that span, but he's been productive with a .979 OPS.