The Z Files: Top 50 Outfielders, Part One

Outfield is an interesting position this season. It's typically loaded at the top but not as flush in the middle and bottom. The first of the two-part top-50 outfield rankings will feature 25 names not discussed yet, with 25 more to follow next week. Nine others will be intertwined but they've already been thumbnailed.

59. Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers

For the past several seasons, Choo has split time between the outfield and designated hitter and is likely to do so once again. He's defied Father Time, eclipsing 635 plate appearances the past three seasons and four of his past five. Still, since he'll turn 38 next summer, it's a risk to pay for another 630-plus campaign. Further, it's unclear how the new Globe Life Field will play, though it appears to be more pitcher-friendly, if only due to the lower temperatures when the roof is closed.

58. Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays

Grichuk is coming off his first season with full-time play. He took advantage by cracking 31 homers, a new personal best. Grichuk's contact rate improved a tad, but a drop in average exit velocity caused a dip in BABIP and batting average. Counting on a repeat in playing time is a bit risky as the Blue Jays are stocking up on young outfielders, so if Grichuk's contact wanes, he could find himself on the bench.

57. Austin Hays, Baltimore Orioles

Last season, Anthony Santander took advantage of an injury to Hays and made a good impression. Now it's Hays' turn to shine. He obviously won't come anywhere close to last season's .947 OPS in a late-season callup, but that was enough to enter 2020 with first dibs on center field in Camden Yards. The team context isn't great, but Hays makes good contact, has some pop and possesses 85th percentile sprint speed. He's not a bad flyer for a fourth or fifth outfield spot, depending on league depth.

56. David Dahl, Colorado Rockies

On one hand, Dahl set a career high in games played and plate appearances. On the other, it was still only 100 and 413, respectively. That said, he reminded us what the fuss is all about with an .877 OPS. The thing is, while everyone benefits from Coors Field, Statcast data suggests Dahl is helped more than most as his average exit velocity and launch angle wouldn't typically translate into his production. This is corroborated by home/away splits, as he had .412 wOBA at home compared to .308 on the road. Injury concerns aside, the best deployment for Dahl is streaming for home games in leagues with ample reserve spots.

55. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers

Covered in My Top 20 First Baseman

54. A.J. Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers

Injury prone or accident prone, that is the question. The majority of Pollock's health woes have been more fluke than chronic, including missing a large chunk of last season dealing with an infected elbow as a result of a prior surgery. When on the field, Pollock's production is consistent, though not to the level teased in 2015 when he looked like a perennial first rounder. Pollock is best suited for leagues with a deep reserve or injured list, though I lean more to the fluke side, presenting a buying opportunity with the inevitable health discount.

53. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros

With the note a lefty swinger doesn't own his splits until he sees about five years of regular at-bats against southpaws, one of the reasons Houston dealt Jake Marisnick could be Tucker's comfort against same-side pitching. To be frank, the Astros should know those numbers are noise. Still, there isn't a natural platoon partner for Josh Reddick, at least not yet, so perhaps Tucker picks up some of those at-bats. He's also the backup to Michael Brantley (again, both left-handers) and George Springer. Yordan Alvarez is the full-time designated hitter, so Tucker's playing time will come in the outfield. I'm not 100 percent sure where or when, just feel he will play a decent amount. He needs to translate the plate skills he displayed in the minors, but once he does, we're looking at a fantasy stud.

52. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins

Kepler has 92 career homers with only two the opposite way. He's pulled 73 with the remaining 17 to center. Usually, batters with oppo power are better able to maintain their homers, so this doesn't bode well for Kepler. Plus, he benefited more than most from the 2019 ball, as the added five feet of flight was in the sweet spot to add disproportionately more homers. Kepler is a nice ballplayer, but don't be surprised if 2019 is archived as his career year.

51. Mallex Smith, Seattle Mariners

Smith is as close to there is to a stolen base specialist, possibly helpful in runs, a risk in batting average and a black hole in homers and RBI. There used to be a few (Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon) in early-round consideration, but now you aren't faced with that dilemma until later. A draft strategy built around Smith's steals is a huge risk since others may also be targeting him, raising the cost. On the field, his running is likely to be curtailed a bit since he could spend a lot of time at the bottom of the order, if not on the bench. He's in the bottom-fifth percentile with respect to exit velocity, putting his on-base fate in the hands of the BABIP deities as well as his legs.

50. Trent Grisham, San Diego Padres

Grisham is intriguing as he sports good on-base skills and 93rd percentile sprint speed. It's unclear if the Padres will let him unleash his wheels, and it's uncertain how much he'll play. They obviously like him, dealing away Luis Urias to acquire the outfielder, but they also picked up Tommy Pham and already have Wil Myers and Manuel Margot in town. As discussed, outfield isn't as deep as usual, but there are a bunch of infielders with outfield eligibility. Populating a roster with a few of those (ideally at middle or corner) greases the skids for taking a chance on Grisham. If it doesn't work out, you can backfill with an outfielder or infielder.

49. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

In the interests of full disclosure, I haven't adjusted the Brewers after the additions of Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak and Ryon Healy, so there's a chance Braun is eventually assigned a little less playing time and his ranking drops despite coming off his healthiest campaign since 2016. Braun can still get it done between the white lines, chipping in with a tidy 11 steals in 12 attempts. It comes down to preference. This is the point some want upside, while others desire stability. Braun offers the latter.

48. Kevin Pillar, Free Agent

With so much attention paid to the top free agents and stars on the trading block, there isn't much buzz on Pillar. He'll be 31 years old just after the New Year, but there shouldn't be any concern as he's coming off a season with a career-best 161 games and 645 plate appearances. For the last five seasons, he's averaged 152 games, batting .262 with 14 homers and 16 swipes. That works.

47. Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox

Robert is currently being drafted right around pick 100, while I have him outside of the top 150. I recognize the talent, but am also leery of playing time and performance, especially in the batting average department. I'm doing my best to ignore the handful of games I saw in the Arizona Fall League where it seemed he fanned every time up. The numbers show while Robert's strikeouts are high, he's still very young and is showing signs of improved contact. AFL or not, I need to see how he handles MLB pitching before investing what it takes to get him (understanding every roster needs upside potential). Before the "Zola hates Robert" narrative gains traction, 150 is a 10th-round player in a 15-team league. There's nothing wrong with that, especially factoring in Robert will likely "have to work on his defense" for at least a couple of weeks in early April. I guess it comes down to philosophy. Chances are the majority of those drafting him understand the risks; they're just more willing to accept them. I'm usually looking for pitching around when he gets taken.

46. Victor Reyes, Detroit Tigers

At his current 365 ADP, there's a good chance I'll have some Reyes in my 2020 portfolio. Before scoffing at the seemingly lofty rank, who else is going to play center field in Motown? Reyes has elite speed, a plus arm and the defensive metrics are all favorable. His patience needs work, but he makes decent contact with just enough pop to be dangerous. Team context isn't great for run production, but it's more than commensurate with where you'll likely draft Reyes. Shoot, I'll be right back, I need to sign up for a draft so I can take him. I have non-buyer's remorse for not doing it thus far.

45. Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs

Schwarber truthers were finally rewarded with a career year, as the former catcher played nearly every day and slugged 38 homers, 15 the other way. He's always been a Statcast darling with scorching average exit velocity. However, a high strikeout rate and woes versus southpaw pitching held him back. Last season, Schwarber improved in both areas. If it were a sure thing he'd maintain those gains, he would be ranked higher.

44. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Oy vey, time to go down this rabbit hole again. I share an NFBC team with Derek VanRiper, a league beginning its draft during the final weekend of the ongoing season. DVR is a self-admitted Buxton mark, so it's a minor miracle we waited until the second-to-last pick in the 12th round to take him. I have him ranked two rounds earlier (Buxton that is, Derek is a first rounder) so I was glad to let DVR get "his guy". You know the deal, oozing talent but can't stay on the field, usually teasing with a great finish to the season. Last season, Buxton missed most of the second half but is expected to be ready for the spring. This is the year, right DVR?

43. Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee Brewers

Garcia rebounded nicely from a disappointing 2018 season, parlaying it into a two-year deal with The Crew. Garcia will certainly enjoy playing in Miller Park and could surprise in steals if Craig Counsell goes back to his tendencies of a couple years ago. On paper, there's a playing time crunch with Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Justin Smoak and Garcia competing for four spots (not to mention Ben Gamel, Tyler Austin and Keon Broxton), but these things usually work themselves out.

42. Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

Here's an example of how park factors don't apply the same to everyone. Reportedly, the new Globe Life Field will be more pitcher friendly than Globe Life Park, in large part due to few homers getting aided by the heat and humidity in Arlington. Between threats of rain and oppressive heat, chances are the retractable roof will be closed and the temperature 20 degrees lower. This could affect Elvis Andrus. A beast like Gallo? Not so much. He's up there with Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano in terms of destroying baseballs. He just needs to hit them more often.

41. J.D. Davis, New York Mets

Covered in my Top 30 Third Baseman

40. Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners

This time last season, Haniger was a borderline top-50 player, let alone outfielder. Injuries derailed his 2019 campaign, which was already off to a rough start. Now, Haniger is stuck in a bit of a logjam as the Mariners have stockpiled some young outfielders such as Jake Fraley and Kyle Lewis with Jarred Kelenic on the way, plus Mallex Smith still in the mix. Haniger doesn't stand out in any particular manner, but until last season he sported good plate skills with solid contact. Even if he stays in the Pacific Northwest, Haniger is a bounce-back candidate. If he gets moved to a team in a hitter's park or better lineup, a return to All-Star status is plausible.

39. Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds

The human mind is biased to remember first impressions over everything else. As such, many may not realize Aquino slashed .196/.236/.382 in September. Well, many who aren't Reds fans, or had Aquino on their fantasy roster. On the bright side, he swiped five of his seven bases during the last month. The early success earned Aquino a full-time role for 2020, at least considering the current Cincinnati outfield. His low contact rate makes him prone to slumps, but the Reds are banking on Aquino becoming more consistent, figuring if the season didn't end, he'd have snapped out of his September malaise.

38. Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies

Out of sight, out of mind. It's easy to overlook how well McCutchen was playing before his 2019 campaign was truncated after just 59 games. Granted, it wasn't akin to his salad days when he was a perennial first rounder, but the veteran was quietly on pace for 25 homers and well over 100 runs. If you recall, McCutchen tore his ACL in a rundown necessary because Jean Segura failed to run out an infield pop with McCutchen on first. It's not a guarantee he picks up where he left off, but with a current ADP outside of 200, the risk is more than baked in.

37. Lourdes Gurriel, Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto infield is stacked with young talent, Gurriel transitioned to the outfield where it appears he'll stay. He could become a Swiss army knife type player but should still receive a lot of playing time. When he was signed out of Cuba, Gurriel profiled as a guy with an empty batting average, but he's developed projectible power, supported by an improving hard-hit rate and increasing average exit velocity.

36. Oscar Mercado, Cleveland Indians

Mercado is the perfect player for those wanting to compile steals without focusing on the category studs. As such, his price could rise as more get familiar with the player pool and realize there aren't many other options offering double-digit homers and bags, with 97th percentile speed portending 25-plus steals potential. The key could be Mercado gaining back some of the plate patience he displayed in the minor leagues in 2018 and 2019.

35. Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers

After a run of solid consistency, Cain fell back last season. While he didn't miss many games, he played through assorted boo-boos, likely curtailing his production. That said, he'll be 34 years old in April, so some of the decline could be organic aging. Still, the leading indicators point to a rebound, though Cain's days of 25-30 steals are likely over.

34. Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates

Who? Yeah, Reynolds, the guy who finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. While projecting a sophomore slump is harsh, he'll be challenged to repeat his freshman campaign. The hit tool is real as Reynolds hasn't batted below .300 in his pro career and should threaten the level again, as suggested by last season's .296 xBA supporting his actual .314 mark. This is a nice example of not drafting the rank since a lot of his contribution comes in batting average. Your team construction could prefer more oomph in either power or speed – or maybe Reynolds is the perfect asset to help buffer other batting average drains.

33. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox

Benintendi came into camp last season noticeably more buff. While it isn't clear if it hurt his performance, it certainly didn't help as he fell back across the board. He was still a fantasy asset, just not the top-60 guy many expected. However, there is a reason for optimism in 2020, as Benintendi's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate improved; it just got swallowed up by the huge right field in Fenway Park. Plus, his contact waned, maybe because he was trying to join the launch angle revolution. Irregardless, I mean regardless, this is a fantasy-friendly skill set ripe for a rebound.