The Z Files: My Top 20 First Basemen

Next up in the Top 20 positional rankings are first baseman, perennially one of the strongest positions in the field.

What?

Really? No way.

Next up in the Top 20 positional rankings are first baseman, one of the weakest positions, only ahead of catcher and third baseman.

That's right friends, it's a new era. Despite power ruling the roost, both corner infield spots trail the middle infield and outfield in terms of positional strength. A record number of players with multiple position eligibility muddies the waters, but there's no doubt first base is shockingly weak once you get past the upper tier.

Before embarking on the rest of the lists, I needed to make an executive decision. As mentioned, there's a plethora of players eligible at more than one spot. Do I set up a hierarchy and list accordingly? Do I rank at the spot they played the most? Maybe list them at the position they're expected to play the most? Ultimately, I opted to ignore the position flexibility and share the top 20 of all eligible, meaning there will be some duplicates. The downside is when the lists are finished, fewer players will get a blurb but the upside is not having to answer, "Where does so-and-so rank as a third baseman?" Sure, I could include that info anyway, but if you have a question on a specific player that isn't covered by the site outlook, you can always pose it in the comments and I'll gladly respond.

With that as a backdrop, here are my initial top 20 first baseman, subject to change as I dig deeper, team context changes and/or I find spreadsheet errors.

20. Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres

Hosmer's second year with the Padres nearly matched his first, though he did drive in 30 more runs. His wOBA was the same, but with the increased scoring, his 91 wRC+ was even worse than 2018's pedestrian 95. From a fantasy perspective, he hit more homers, scored the same number of runs and added 12 points to his average. Curiously, he didn't steal any bags after swiping a handful the past few seasons. Under the hood, Hosmer significantly upped his average exit velocity, but a 2.1 degree average launch angle endangered more worms than it did take advantage of the ball traveling further. Hosmer remains a compiler with durability as his primary asset (averaging 670 plate appearances over the last five seasons). His making the list speaks more about the dearth of quality at the position than anything. He'll be on someone's roster. Hopefully, it won't be yours.

19. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Things didn't turn out so well for those hoping for a rebound from Votto. To paraphrase, "Get fooled once? Oh well. Get fooled twice? Shame on you." Votto will still be a fantasy asset, just don't get sucked in again. His strikeout and walk rates are trending in the wrong direction, not what you want from a player so reliant on plate skills. Sure, maybe he flips the script and sells out for power, or maybe he's been hurt and a rebound of sorts is in the offing. If the replacement level were as high as previous seasons, it could be worth the shot. Based on the composition of the player pool, though, counting on a decent replacement is risky.

18. Daniel Murphy, Colorado Rockies

Confession time: ranking Murphy top 50 last season was one of my biggest misses of 2019, if not the biggest. It's not prudent to make a knee-jerk reaction to one sample, but my lesson was to temper expectations when the driving force is almost exclusively park factors, especially for an aging player with defensive deficiencies. I could blame a fluky hand injury Murphy incurred diving for a ball, but that's a cop out; the process was flawed, even if he hadn't gotten hurt. That said, Murphy is still a fly ball hitter in Coors Field, albeit with a low average exit velocity and decreasing, but still stellar, contact rate.

17. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers

Pederson set a career high in homers as not only did he maintain an elevated average launch angle from the previous season, his average fly ball distance really benefited from the ball traveling further, adding disproportionately more homers than other hitters. Pederson will be just 28 for the majority of the impending season so there's still a chance for further growth, but he's had three consecutive seasons with similar underlying metrics (except the increase in fly balls), so the safe play is saying he is what he is – a low average platoon power bat with (surprisingly) no speed.

16. Edwin Encarnacion, Free Agent

Encarnacion, and his parrot, could move up or down a few spots, depending on his landing spot. Of course, you want him to play in a homer-friendly venue, but he should be productive regardless. Playing time is also a concern as Encarnacion accrued only 486 trips to the dish after averaging 625 over the previous seven campaigns. That said, this ranking bakes in aging and increased injury risk for a guy entering his age-37 season.

15. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies

Better suited in OBP or points leagues, Hoskins is a batting average liability with no speed. Sure, he can clout long balls, but relative to the field, he's not a top slugger. His batting average is suppressed not only by a worsening contact rate, but also because he's an extreme fly ball hitter. Lofted balls not clearing the fence are converted to outs about 90 percent of the time. In addition, Hoskins hits a ton of infield pops, and Citizens Bank Park is always among the leaders in foul outs.

14. Carlos Santana, Cleveland Indians

Santana is coming off a career year, setting a new personal best with a 135 wRC+. His plate skills (K% and BB%) were typically stellar, nearly matching his career averages. The improvement was fueled by a huge spike in average exit velocity/hard-hit rate. There's no indication Santana worked with a swing doctor, so perhaps he just felt more comfortable in Cleveland than in Philadelphia. While his numbers were slightly inflated compared to expected stats, the batted ball profile largely supported the elevated production. Santana rates as one of the most durable players in the game, failing to see at least 640 plate appearances just once since 2011 and averaging a robust 670 the past seven seasons. There's likely going to be some give back, so be careful not to pay for 2019's numbers.

13. Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros

Gurriel is also eligible at the hot corner, the weakest position in the fantasy infield hierarchy. Curiously, despite coming off an incredible campaign, there's a chance Gurriel transitions to a utility role since he can also dabble at the keystone in a pinch. This assumes Houston finds a regular role for Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, along with Carlos Correa staying healthy. The playing time picture should be clarified in the spring, but early drafters need to consider the chance Gurriel loses regular status. It certainly won't be based on performance. The 35-year-old Cuban was one of the Astros' top run producers, slugging a career best .541 while smacking 31 homers, the first time he's eclipsed the 30-level in his MLB career.

12. Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics

History suggests being wary of power returning after a player suffers an injury to their hamate bone, especially if it required surgery. Olson never got the memo, as not only did he come back sooner than expected, he didn't miss a beat, blasting long balls out of the park from the get-go. To be honest, Olson could be shortchanged on playing time here. If he plays every day, he has a legit shot to be a top eight, if not better, player at the position. Hey, I did say these ranks are subject to change. Olson's 25 percent strikeout rate is excessive, but like so many of the modern-era sluggers, an elite average exit velocity mitigates the effect.

11. Danny Santana, Texas Rangers

If rankings came with a confidence level (maybe they should?), Santana would check in as shaky. That said, a thorough review of his underlying metrics assuages most of the fears. While 28 homers and a .534 SLG seemingly came out of nowhere, his average fly ball distance from 2017 portended to twice as many homers (he hit four in 178 plate appearances) while his 2019 distance easily backed the breakout. Of course, the question is will Santana maintain that lofty level, especially since the Rangers will move onto Globe Life Field, a venue expected to suppress power and offense more than Globe Life Park did. Here's where a couple other factors come into play. Santana also does something few other first basemen can do -- steal bases. He was 21-for-27 (78 percent) last season, a clip sufficient to keep getting the green light. It also appears he will continue to play regularly, likely at first but there are other spots he can handle if necessary. In fact, he's also eligible in the outfield to begin the season, adding to his fantasy allure.

10. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates

Long thought of as more of a gap-to-gap line drive hitter, Bell added loft and the conversion to slugger was complete. However, there's understandable concern surrounding his second-half swoon. If this depresses his price, consider it a buying opportunity. The fact is, Bell was going to come down from his uber-productive first-half level (155 wRC+), as it was unsustainable. That said, the fall was hard, to the point he was a league average player over the second half (101 wRC+). On the other hand, Bell walked more while fanning less after the break, a good sign for a rebound. Chances are, his overall numbers will fall back a bit from his breakout 2019 campaign, but he's a different player than previous seasons and should be treated accordingly.

9. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

While in theory the Dodgers could make a move, pushing Muncy to a reserve role, it's just hard to envision taking a 134 wRC+ bat out of the lineup on a regular basis. Barring a change, he should see the bulk of his action at first base with Gavin Lux earmarked for second. Muncy fell back some from 2018, but that was inevitable -- gravity had to take hold and bring him back to earth. Still, under the hood, Muncy's support stats were similar to 2018, so he's established a high floor, albeit with a tempered batting average risk emanating from below average contact. In a baseball sense, his high walk rate helps, also rendering him sneakily potent in OBP and points leagues.

8. Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles

Mancini's underlying metrics were nearly identical to 2018, with one notable exception as he reverted to 2017's loft, adding more line drives and fly balls while dropping grounders. The result was a bump in BABIP with the extra fly balls propelling a career-best 35 homers out of the yard. With similar average exit velocity and hard-hit marks for two straight seasons, Mancini has established a bankable floor. There's upside if he repeats the added launch as well as the chance production improves as the Orioles lineup matures.

7. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

You know the deal, LeMahieu was acquired to fill in all around the Yankees infield, though with the original plans featuring his former Colorado double-play partner Troy Tulowitzki, it was a safe bet he would play a lot. The early loss of Miguel Andujar sealed LeMahieu's fate, and he played just about every day. After a down 2018 where he pulled the ball more, he reverted to using all fields, going the other way with authority and taking advantage of the hitter-friendly right field dimensions in Yankee Stadium. To wit, 11 of his 19 homers at home were oppo. LeMahieu should again play every day, providing souvenirs to those sitting in the right field seats.

6. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals

A big dip in average marred Goldschmidt's inaugural campaign with the Cardinals, with power and associated production syncing up with recent seasons. The venue change accounts for some of the drop as Busch Stadium suppresses hits by five percent compared to Chase Field. The rest can likely be chalked up to Goldschmidt finishing on the lower end of his plausible skills range. Remember, skills aren't static. The question is, now that he's on the other side of 30, is his range still the same, or are we seeing the beginning of eroding skills? I'll take the former and expect a rebound in the average department. Admittedly it's not a hot take, but the steals that separated the veteran from other first sackers are a thing of the past.

5. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

The next three players are extremely close and can really be considered 3A, 3B and 3C. Rizzo is one of the most reliable players in the game, both in terms of production and durability. He did miss some games in September with a sprained ankle, but some of that was the Cubs shutting him down the last week after they were eliminated from playoff contention. As discussed, first base is not deep. If you want to lock down a solid contributor, Rizzo is a fine choice. If you play in OBP or points leagues, he's a target – literally. He's been plunked 117 times the past five seasons, buoying his OBP by about 40 points a season.

4. Pete Alonso, New York Mets

STOP! Let me explain. The cop-out excuse is Alonso will move up a spot if Jose Abreu signs in a venue suppressing power. That isn't enough. Cutting to the chase, even the most die-hard Mets zealot must accept the fact Alonso won't repeat his record-setting home run performance. Look no further than what Aaron Judge and even Mark McGwire did their sophomore campaigns. The only pause I have is Alonso's average fly ball distance supported his record-setting total. Still, chances are he performed at the 95th percentile of expectations and some regression is forthcoming. Fewer homers means fewer hits, dinging an already suspect batting average. My initial projection is 45 homers with a .245 average. It's the average part dragging him down, but I'm planting my flag on a drop from last season's .260.

3. Jose Abreu, Free Agent

The affect of where Abreu lands on his ranking has already been referenced. The key is realizing just how good and consistent the guy has been. As a reminder, poor teams score runs too. Abreu blasted his previous high in RBI, knocking in 123 last season. His skill set is stable, fully supported by the underlying metrics. Instead of quibbling where he's ranked, take advantage of where the market ranks the veteran and take the likely positive return on investment.

2. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

The assumption is the cleanup Freeman had to his elbow has no residual effects and he'll be 100 percent in the spring. Expecting a repeat of his 38 homers is optimistic, especially considering he cranked just 23 the previous season. However, a floor of 30 dingers with a .300 average is fair, and he sits in the middle of a prolific lineup so his run production should be excellent to boot. Freeman lines up to be a great wheel pick in drafts, perfect to pair with someone with more speed or a pitcher, setting a solid foundation.

1. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Bellinger is probably the riskiest player to be ranked atop their position. Check that, he is the riskiest. He doesn't have to repeat last season's heroics, but he needs to come close. Many will point out a second-half slide. Yes, by the numbers, he had a much better first half. However, August was just as good as the first three months, so we could just be looking at variance. Overall, Bellinger matured as a player, particularly facing southpaws. This is a great example of why platoon splits can't be trusted for several seasons. It also means last season's performance against same-side pitching can't considered his norm either, so expect regression. The real key to his success, and the primary reason it should continue, is a marked uptick in plate skills, as he fanned less while walking even more. This doesn't always carry over, at least not to the full extent, but gains are usually sustained. This sets Bellinger up for another productive campaign. For those curious, he's currently the sixth ranked outfielder, illustrating the prowess of the top end of the outfield class.