The Long Game: Potential NL West Breakouts

Finally, this tour of possible keeper sleepers concludes out on the West Coast, and almost just in time for... err, Opening Day for the KBO? There's still no clear path forward for MLB to get its own season underway, just a lot of rumored plans and ways to try and make playing baseball as safe as possible for everyone concerned.

For the columns on prior divisions, click here for the AL East, NL East, AL Central, NL Central and AL West.

Now, let's take a look at some other possible breakouts in the NL West:

Diamondbacks

Shallow: Kevin Ginkel

One of the most popular closers in waiting this draft season, Ginkel not only has a dominant fastball-slider combo and a weird arthritic-old-man delivery that gives him extra extension beyond his long-limbed 6-4 frame, but he's on a team that has never seemed willing to commit to Archie Bradley as its ninth-inning man. Across all levels, Ginkel fanned 91 batters in 59.2 innings last year with a 1.66 ERA, and there's little reason to think big-league batters are going to figure him out any time soon. A compacted schedule that forces teams into more creative deployment of their pitching staffs could also open up more opportunities for someone like Ginkel to prove they can get the job done at the end of games.

Deep: Josh Rojas

The D-backs reinforced their outfield this offseason, bringing in Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun to join David Peralta, and Ketel Marte could always maintain a super-utility role and see action out there as well. With Tim Locastro locked into the defensive replacement/pinch runner spot on the bench, that wouldn't seem to leave much playing time left over for anyone else. If Marte remains at second base, however, the club could look for a new utility guy, and Rojas might be the best candidate. Part of the haul from the Astros for Zack Greinke, Rojas put up big numbers in the high minors in 2019 and at 25 years old, he seems ready for the next challenge. With enough playing time, he could put up the kind of numbers Oscar Mercado managed last year – and, in what will become a bit of a running theme to this column, if the universal DH comes to MLB in 2020, playing time for someone like Rojas shouldn't be a problem.

Rockies

Shallow: Elias Diaz

Tony Wolters is still nominally the Rockies' starting catcher thanks to his defense, but a guy who managed only one home run in over 400 PAs in a Colorado uniform does not possess a starting-caliber bat, even by the low standards of the position. Drew Butera is 36 years old and has a career .200/.257/.297 slash line, and while Dom Nunez has flashed a little pop and patience in the minors, his defense needs work and he has options remaining. Meanwhile Diaz is only one year removed from a .286/.339/.452 line with 10 homers in 82 games for the Pirates. Sure, that might have been a fluke, but he's basically the only catcher on the roster that has shown the ability to contribute offensively to a big-league lineup, and as every fantasy GM knows, any guy who finds his way into at-bats at altitude can become your new best friend overnight.

Deep: Jairo Diaz

No, no relation, although both Diazes are Venezuelan. Jairo was originally an Angels relief prospect who got dealt to the Rockies in 2015, promptly tore his UCL after flashing his high-leverage potential, and only got back on track last season. His heavy 97 mph fastball is a good fit for Coors Field, inasmuch as any pitch is a good fit, and while Wade Davis and Scott Oberg are ahead of him in the saves pecking order on paper, one only still has the closer job because of his bloated contract and the other has his 2019 campaign end early due to blood clots in his arm. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Diaz outpitches them both, and while I'm always reluctant to recommend any Colorado pitcher due to the ratio risk, as a saves sleeper, you could do a lot worse.

Dodgers

Shallow: Tony Gonsolin

Another year, another strong statistical season cranked out by an unheralded product of the Dodgers' pitcher factory. Gonsolin's ERA and WHIP last year were better than his component numbers warranted, but that's nothing new for the team, and his minor-league strikeout rates suggest he still has plenty of ceiling to reach as he further refines his four-pitch mix. His experience working a swing man role last year should also serve him well in the scheduling chaos we're likely to see once the 2020 season gets underway. He won't be Walker Buehler valuable, but Gonsolin could wind up as the glue guy on the Dodgers' staff this year, scooping up wins in long relief and plugging into the rotation when a fragile arm like David Price or Alex Wood needs a rest. Plus, he looks like Frank Zappa, so think of all the bad puns you could use for your team name, like The Mothers of Run Prevention.

Deep: Edwin Rios

With Mookie Betts in town, A.J. Pollock is now the fourth outfielder and Joc Pederson has been forced to try his luck at first base, so it's hard to pencil in any other Dodger flycatcher for much value. Rios has the stick to make an impact if he gets a chance, though. After smashing 31 homers in 104 PCL games last year he chipped in four more in 56 plate appearances in his big-league debut, and he makes enough hard contact to keep his batting average afloat despite some strikeouts. What Rios doesn't do well is play defense. Even left field is a stretch, and he's no Max Muncy with the glove at first base. In short, he's a born DH, and while the deep roster would give the Dodgers the option of rotating other starters through the DH spot if they had it available, Rios could just slug his way into a regular gig if the club doesn't have to worry him trying to catch anything.

Padres

Shallow: Josh Naylor

Another bat-first player who could benefit from a universal DH, Naylor's other path to regular playing time could come if the Padres find a taker for Wil Myers' contract. Naylor has yet to really turn his raw power into game power, but he's got a decent hit tool and patience working for him, and he's still only 22. Of course, Franchy Cordero is still around, and if he's healthy (a big if) he could be a better pick for this spot as he has a higher theoretical upside, but it really comes down to a tools vs. skills argument at that point. Naylor's more likely to be a steadier contributor, and thus in my mind more likely to seize a significant opportunity if one presents itself.

Deep: Cal Quantrill

At one time viewed as a player in the mix for the first overall pick in the 2016 draft, Quantrill never seemed to fully recover from the development time he lost after his 2015 Tommy John surgery, and his pro career has been relatively uninspiring to date. He's still got, on paper, the raw material to be a No. 2 starter, though – mid-90s fastball, killer changeup, plus athleticism, and pro bloodlines (his dad, Paul Quantrill, had a long and successful big-league career as a reliever). At the moment, he's probably looking at a sixth starter role to begin the season, but Garrett Richards is hardly an iron man and the Padres have other question marks in their rotation. Quantrill is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-pedigree pitcher who could suddenly click the way Lucas Giolito did, even if his current arsenal doesn't give him Giolito's upside.

Giants

Shallow: Drew Smyly

I can't believe I'm even writing this. For a while, Smyly was on the short list of guys I never, ever rostered in any fantasy league, mainly because everyone seemed way higher on him than I was. (He was probably the No. 2 guy on that list behind Nathan Eovaldi, the poster child for velocity not being everything when it comes to pitchers). Sure, Smyly put up good ratios and strikeout rates there for a while in Detroit and Tampa, but he could never stay healthy. That was five years ago, though. Since then, he's seen his homer rate soar in 2016, missed two entire season, and then returned to post a 6.24 ERA last year. So why is it that now, all of a sudden, I think he might be worth picking up? For one thing, his price finally matches his medical chart. For another, he wasn't all that terrible after escaping Globe Life Park last year and posted better numbers in Philly, which bodes well for him now that he'll be working in a true pitcher's park. The long balls are still an issue and you won't want him active for any Coors Field trips, if those happen this season, but Smyly in Oracle Park is a recipe for palatable ratios and a K-rate north of 9.0, for however many innings he can give you.

Deep: Jaylin Davis

Huh, wow, another hitter who could reap the rewards if San Francisco gets to use the DH. What were the odds. Unlike some of the other hitters listed prior, Davis actually has a solid glove in the outfield, and can even handle center field in a pinch, although that won't be a skill set he uses much if Billy Hamilton is starting. More importantly, Davis absolutely murderized Triple-A pitching last year, posting a combined .332/.410/.699 line with 25 homers in 68 games between Rochester and Sacramento. He added another 10 long balls and Double-A and one in the majors for good measure. If Hunter Pence weren't still hanging around, Davis would probably be locked into a spot on the big-league bench as a right-handed complement to Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, but as it stands it might take expanded rosters, or an injury or two, to get him back onto the Giants' roster. Given that Hamilton can't hit, Dickerson and Pence can't stay healthy, and Li'l Yaz could have been a flash in the pan, there are plenty of potential paths for Davis to get his chance.