Team Previews: NL West

NL West Team Previews

Editor's Note: Click on a team under Projected Final Standings to jump to that particular team's rundown.

Projected Final Standings

Los Angeles Dodgers: 95-67
Arizona Diamondbacks: 87-75
San Francisco Giants: 86-76
Colorado Rockies: 69-93
San Diego Padres: 63-99

Los Angeles Dodgers

State of the Franchise

The Dodgers have now enjoyed a three-year run as NL West champs, but their World Series drought reached 27 years in 2015 and the team's inability to convert regular season success into postseason wins cost Don Mattingly his job. Fittingly, storied Yankee slayer Dave Roberts takes over as manager, but the former Padres bench coach inherits basically the same roster that got Mattingly canned, as despite a bloated payroll the Dodgers' lineup continues to be less than the sum of its salary, with expensive spare parts like Carl Crawford still kicking around. The roster did get an injection of youth last season, though, as center fielder Joc Pederson broke camp in a starting role and top prospect Corey Seager finished the year punishing major league pitching. Their development alongside stalwart Adrian Gonzalez, as well as better health for Yasiel Puig, could push the offense to new heights after the team led the NL in home runs in 2015.

The biggest change for the Dodgers in 2016 comes in the rotation. Clayton Kershaw remains without peer as the team's ace, but Zack Greinke exercised an opt-out in his contract and parlayed a career year into a huge free agent deal with the division rival Diamondbacks, leaving a large hole behind Kershaw. Los Angeles responded by bringing in Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda, planning to replace Greinke's 220 elite innings with 400-odd very good ones, and they also expect Hyun-Jin Ryu to return from a shoulder injury that cost him all of last year. A deeper, if not as top-heavy, rotation should allow then to stay ahead of the D'backs (who also traded for Shelby Miller in addition to signing Greinke) and Giants (who added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija) in the NL West's escalating arms race.

Despite coming up short in the playoffs, this is still a loaded squad featuring a potentially above-average offense, the best pitcher of his generation and a cohort of quality arms behind him. It may not be easy, but the Dodgers are still the class of their division until someone finds a way to knock them off their perch.

Pitcher To Watch

Kenta Maeda – The 27-year-old Japanese star signed an unusual eight-year, incentive-laden deal with the Dodgers after being posted by the Hiroshima Carp, displaying if nothing else confidence in his ability to handle MLB hitters and thrive in North America. He doesn't appear to have the upside of the pitcher he's replacing, Zack Greinke, or for that matter the electric pure stuff of Yu Darvish or Masahiro Tanaka, but during his career in Japan, Maeda displayed excellent command of a low-90s fastball, multiple slider variations and a baffling changeup that could end up being his out pitch, and his ability to limit walks and home runs should serve him well in a division that features regular trips to Coors Field. Most likely he ends up as a solid mid-rotation arm, but if everything comes together for him, Maeda could end up with numbers similar to Roy Oswalt at his peak.

Hitter To Watch

Corey Seager, SS – In shallow leagues Seager might still qualify as a sleeper, but in most formats the cat's out of the bag after his .337/.425/.561 introduction to the majors. September pitching being what it is, you can't expect him to maintain that pace over his first full season, but Seager won't turn 22 until after Opening Day and he has the hit tool, power and plate discipline to be an exceptional four-category producer sooner rather than later. The team is committed to keeping him at shortstop as long as his defense is at least adequate, and the combination of offensive upside and positional scarcity already has his ADP skyrocketing in early drafts. If you take the plunge, be prepared for a slow start both due to his age, the questions about his glove at shortstop and an April schedule that essentially features nothing but pitcher's parks for the Dodgers aside from a three-game set in Coors, but even if he needs an adjustment period, Seager could start providing big dividends as soon as this summer.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

1. Howie Kendrick. 2B
2. Corey Seager, SS
3. Justin Turner, 3B
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
5. Yasiel Puig, RF
6. Andre Ethier, LF
7. Yasmani Grandal, C
8. Joc Pederson, CF

vs. LHP

1. Howie Kendrick. 2B
2. Corey Seager, SS
3. Justin Turner, 3B
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
5. Yasiel Puig, RF
6. Scott Van Slyke, LF
7. Yasmani Grandal, C
8. Enrique Hernandez, CF

It's somewhat hard to predict what new manager Dave Roberts will do with his lineups. His tendencies from his playing days would suggest he'll be aggressive on the basepaths, but the Dodgers lack much base-stealing ability aside from Pederson (who followed up two 30-steal seasons in the minors with a miserable 4-for-11 performance as a rookie), so there's no obvious speedster to place at the top of the order. During interleague play, Carl Crawford and former White Sox prospect Trayce Thompson would seem to be first in line to receive the extra plate appearances, either at DH or in left field.

Projected Rotation

Clayton Kershaw
Kenta Maeda
Scott Kazmir
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Brett Anderson

While Greinke's departure for Arizona hurts, there's still plenty of depth and plenty of talent in the Dodgers' rotation behind all-world ace Kershaw. There are enough injury concerns to make the depth necessary, however. If Ryu isn't ready to return from his shoulder injury by Opening Day, Alex Wood is available to fill in, and Brandon McCarthy is also looking to rejoin the rotation before the All-Star break as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Michael Bolsinger, who faded at the end of last season after an impressive start to his big league career, and former White Sox prospect Frankie Montas could also factor in if they perform well at Triple-A, and elite youngsters Julio Urias and Jose De Leon aren't so much knocking politely at the door as kicking it down.

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Kenley Jansen

Pedro Baez
J.P. Howell
Yimi Garcia
Chris Hatcher
Luis Avilan
Joe Blanton
Alex Wood

There aren't many proven commodities behind Jansen, but when you have a career K/9 rate of almost 14, you don't need much help closing things down. Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia both flashed K/9 rates of better than 10.5 of their own last year and should provide a strong late-inning bridge to Jansen from the right side, while veteran J.P. Howell handles left-handed duties. Alex Wood could be needed in the rotation at some point, but if Hyun-Jin Ryu is healthy to begin the season, Wood will have to settle for a long relief role.

Riser

Yasiel Puig, OF – The temperamental outfielder's career took a nosedive in 2015, as he played in just 79 games due to hamstring issues and completely tuned out manager Don Mattingly's attempts to instill some discipline in him. The Dodgers replaced Mattingly with former Padres bench coach and Red Sox playoff hero Dave Roberts, so the onus is now back on Puig to rebound. He's pledged to shed some extra pounds in the offseason, and if he can stay off the DL he should be able to return to at least his 2014 form. Despite his struggles last season, the 25-year-old is still far too talented to expect another .758 OPS from him.

Faller

Scott Kazmir, P – Kazmir turned his career back around in Oakland and cashed in for a three-year, $48 million contract, but despite the improved team context around him in Los Angeles and a changeup that ranks among the best in the majors, there are a couple of concerns with the lefty, even if they're more caution flags than outright red ones. For one thing, Kazmir benefited a great deal from his home park with the A's, as O.co Coliseum is one of the better HR-suppressing parks in the majors. In 2015, his HR/9 in O.co was a minuscule 0.25 versus 1.46 everywhere else; in 2014, those rates were 0.62 and 0.92, less extreme but still skewed in his favor at home. Dodger Stadium is a solid environment for pitchers in its own right, but it plays neutral for home runs, so it seems likely that Kazmir is going to see some erosion in his ability to keep the ball in the park. He also faded down the stretch in each of the last two years, recording post-All-Star ERAs of 5.42 in 2014 and 3.86 in 2015 (compared to first half ERAs of 2.38 and 2.49 in those seasons). He's been able to stay off the DL since returning to the majors in 2013, and that recent track record of good health is a big reason why the Dodgers brought him aboard, but even in moving away from the DH league, Kazmir may not be able to match his performance with Oakland.

Sleeper

Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF – Hernandez had a surprisingly useful season for the Dodgers in 2015, seeing time at six different positions and posting a strong .307/.346/.490 slash line. That offensive performance was fueled by a .369 BABIP and is almost certain to regress, but there's still reason to think that Hernandez might be a sneaky fantasy play. He might not hit above .300 again, but his power seems fairly legit, as his .183 ISO is right in line with 2014's .173, and at just 24 years old he still has room to improve at the plate. More importantly, he's got plenty of routes to playing time as the Dodgers' primary utility man. He finished last season in a platoon with Joc Pederson in center field, and Corey Seager's bat remains far ahead of his glove at shortstop. If either of those two players stumble or regress, Hernandez could fall into a large pile of plate appearances, giving him a real shot at double-digit home run production and real value for a player with middle-infield eligibility.

Supersleeper

Trayce Thompson, OF – Snagged from the White Sox after the Dodgers inserted themselves into the Todd Frazier deal, Thompson had a surprisingly strong major league debut in 2015, slashing .295/.363/.533 in 122 at-bats with a 19.3% strikeout rate that was significantly below his minor league rates. As a prospect in the lower minors he was considered an athletic, toolsy specimen with a good glove who couldn't control the strike zone well enough to take full advantage of his physical gifts, but last year's improvement in his K-rate gives some hope that he could just be a late bloomer. He'll turn 25 before Opening Day, so the future is pretty much now for him, but on a depth chart littered with outfielders who are either fragile or left-handed, there could be plenty of playing time available for Thompson if he demonstrates that last season's numbers represent genuine progress rather than a small-sample mirage.

Arizona Diamondbacks

State of the Franchise

We've now reached the 15th anniversary of the Diamondbacks' lone World Series victory, and the franchise has settled into a pattern of producing one good season every four or five years before receding back into mediocrity, a fate that (depending on which team you're a fan of) sounds either dreadful or delightful. General manager Dave Stewart must have felt the pressure of breaking that pattern this winter, because he made a series of moves that were almost reminiscent of the go-for-broke transactions Omar Minaya inflicted on the Expos in their dying days. Gone is their 2015 first-round pick (Dansby Swanson), their 2014 first-round pick (Touki Toussaint), their 2014 supplemental second-round pick (Isan Diaz), their 2013 supplemental first-round pick (Aaron Blair) and the rights to their 2016 first round pick, plus promising young outfielder Ender Inciarte. In their place, the D'backs have a new starting shortstop (Jean Segura), a new No. 2 starter (Shelby Miller) and a new No. 1 starter in Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke, whom they lured away from the Dodgers with a contract worth over $200 million.

The reinforcements join a roster that already boasted one of the best one-two offensive punches in the majors in A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt, who combined for 53 home runs, 186 RBI, 214 runs, 60 stolen bases and a .318 batting average last year. Second-half surprise Welington Castillo is expected to provide some stability behind the plate, and second-year Cuban import Yasmany Tomas could also take a step forward. Playing their home games in Chase Field ensures that Arizona will produce big offensive numbers, and the team was second to the Rockies among National League teams in runs per game in 2015, but unlike Colorado that offensive success continued on the road as they were fifth in the league in runs per game away from the friendly confines.

Stewart's offseason shopping spree, spurred by the club's huge $1.5 billion TV deal which kicks in beginning in 2016, undoubtedly made the team better in the short term, but the question is did they make the team good enough to win a playoff spot? The NL West remains extremely competitive, with Los Angeles still at the top of the heap and San Francisco also having bulked up their rotation in the offseason by bringing in Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, and wild card spots could be at a premium with multiple strong contenders in the other two divisions as well. If the win-now Diamondbacks don't actually win, or even play in, any October games, that exodus of young talent could come back to haunt them.

Pitcher To Watch

Shelby Miller – Acquired from the Braves in a shocking offseason deal that saw the first overall pick in the 2015 draft, Dansby Swanson, head the other way, Miller enjoyed a strong campaign in Atlanta last year, setting career highs in ERA and strikeouts and only coming up short in the win column as a result of a league-low 2.64 runs per game of support. The move to the Diamondbacks should more than alleviate that problem, but that's not a guarantee Miller will necessarily match or top his 15 wins as a Cardinal rookie in 2013. A large part of his improvement came via an improved home run rate, including a 0.42 HR/9 rate at home, but Chase Field is a much less forgiving environment than Turner Field. If he has trouble keeping the ball in the park, his ERA could creep back into the high threes or worse given his less-than-stellar walk rate. He's still young enough to take a step forward in his development, but regression seems more likely than progression in this case.

Hitter To Watch

A.J. Pollock, OF – Pollock stayed healthy last year and proved that his 2014 production was no fluke, coming within one steal of a 20-40 season and establishing himself as a potential first-round fantasy talent. The knee-jerk reaction to a breakout season is to assume regression, but there actually aren't a lot of signs in Pollock's numbers that suggest he was playing over his head. His power numbers could take a step back given his relatively high groundball percentage, but at 28 years old he's at an age where players often add more power to their arsenal. His K-rate and BB-rate both showed improvement, and his overall batted ball profile can certainly sustain a batting average of .300 or better. In fact, power spike aside, his 2015 line looks very much like his 2011 line at Double-A. Given his home park and the lineup around him, continued good health would appear to be the only thing standing between Pollock and a repeat performance.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

1. A.J. Pollock, CF
2. Jake Lamb, 3B
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4. David Peralta, LF
5. Welington Castillo, C
6. Yasmany Tomas, RF
7. Chris Owings, 2B
8. Jean Segura, SS

vs. LHP

1. Jean Segura, SS
2. A.J. Pollock, CF
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4. Yasmany Tomas, RF
5. Welington Castillo, C
6. Phil Gosselin, 3B
7. Peter O'Brien, LF
8. Nick Ahmed, 2B

The D'backs have a number of potential platoons, with left fielder David Peralta and third baseman Jake Lamb the most likely candidates to sit against same-side pitching. Chris Owings has also struggled against left-handers in his brief career, possibly opening the door for Gosselin or the slick-fielding Ahmed to get at-bats at the keystone. The heart of the order is arguably as good as any team in the majors with Pollock and Goldschmidt, but their supporting cast still has questions to answer. If he's on the 25-man roster, slugging prospect O'Brien would be first in line for DH at-bats during interleague play.

Projected Rotation

Zack Greinke
Shelby Miller
Patrick Corbin
Robbie Ray
Rubby De La Rosa

GM Dave Stewart spared no expense to beef up the rotation, signing Greinke away from the Dodgers to give the team its first true ace since the Randy Johnson days, then paying a steep price in young talent to acquire Miller from the Braves to be the club's No. 2. Corbin was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, while Ray surprised as a rookie. De La Rosa has a big arm but big-time control and command issues, and he could be pushed in spring training by prospect Archie Bradley, who has had control issues of his own, or another 2015 surprise, Zack Godley.

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Brad Ziegler

Daniel Hudson
Randall Delgado
Josh Collmenter
Andrew Chafin
Silvino Bracho
Enrique Burgos

Ziegler nearly doubled his career save total last season, but he still appears to be one of the more tenuous closing options heading into 2016, a by-product of the fact that his success comes through deception rather than overpowering stuff. The sidearmer still has the incumbent's advantage, however, despite the younger arms with bigger fastballs in the bullpen behind him. If he falters, Hudson would likely be first in line to replace him.

Riser

Yasmany Tomas, OF – The 25-year-old Cuban had a lot of hype behind him heading into last season after signing a big six-year deal with Arizona, but he failed to beat out Jake Lamb for the third base job in spring training and then failed to make much of an impression with his bat after he joined the major league roster in mid-April. His plate discipline is poor, but scouts still see a potential power hitter in him and he did hit .314 with a .447 SLG in May and June before fading in the second half, so there are reasons to expect better results from him now that he's had a chance to acclimate himself. With Ender Inciarte now in Atlanta, Tomas will get another shot at holding down a regular spot in the lineup, this time as a corner outfielder. A full season of at-bats should at the very least produce decent power numbers, and he could pop for 20-plus homers if the scouting reports prove to have been ultimately accurate.

Faller

Welington Castillo, C – Castillo's journey from complete irrelevance to fantasy prominence makes you wonder just how much of his success is due to simple opportunity. Buried on the depth chart with the Cubs to begin 2015, he was eventually dealt to the Mariners, who barely gave him a chance before flipping him to the Diamondbacks. All of a sudden, the guy who couldn't come within spitting distance of the Mendoza Line caught fire in the desert, and Castillo quickly seized the starting job and finished the year with 17 home runs in 80 games with Arizona, an incredible pace for a player whose previous career best was 13 home runs in 110 games in 2014. His 18.8% HR/FB rate jumped better than seven points from the year before, and while his flyball distance also improved, any regression at all is going to have a big impact on a player whose value is almost entirely tied to their home run total and position scarcity. Given the potential for a decline and the increased cost in rostering him, Castillo could have a hard time earning his salary at the auction table.

Sleeper

Daniel Hudson, P – Making his return from a second Tommy John surgery, Hudson established himself as a key part of the Diamondbacks' bullpen last season, flashing a fastball that averaged 96 mph and complementing it with an effective changeup and occasional slider, and his K/9 and BB/9 rates both showed improvement in the second half. Of all of Arizona's relievers, Hudson is the one with the classic closer profile, which should make him the next man up if Brad Ziegler falters. Of course, Hudson himself says he wants to return to the rotation, but given his injury history and the team's offseason additions, that seems like something the club would only consider as a last resort.

Supersleeper

Peter O'Brien, OF – After popping 26 home runs in Triple-A last season, O'Brien's bat seems more than ready for a real shot at a major league job. The only question is what position he'll play. He's nominally a catcher, but his defense behind the plate leaves a lot to be desired and the D'backs tried him in the outfield last season with fairly poor results. Arizona says its committed to keeping O'Brien behind the plate, but David Peralta still needs a platoon partner in left field and there aren't many other options on the 25-man roster for that job. If O'Brien has a big spring, don't be surprised if the club finds an excuse to keep him around and get him into the lineup.

San Francisco Giants

State of the Franchise

It's an even-numbered year, so that must mean the Giants are due to win the World Series. The organization's recent semi-dynasty is very impressive in the modern era, and is a testament to the front office's commitment to building from within. The entire starting infield, plus catcher Buster Posey, are all homegrown, as are staff ace Madison Bumgarner and closer-of-the-future Hunter Strickland. That approach has generated a tremendous amount of loyalty both among fans and players, as evidenced by the no-trade clause included in the contract extension signed by Brandon Crawford this offseason, a below-market deal despite his 2015 offensive breakout. The farm system may not have produced any true superstars aside from Posey and Bumgarner, but having cost-controlled players all across the diamond who produce at average or above-average rates gives the organization plenty of flexibility when it has the opportunity to make a bigger move or two.

This offseason, it seems, presented the team with exactly such an opportunity. With Tim Lincecum's collapse and Matt Cain's continued skills erosion, the rotation needed a big infusion of talent to allow the club to keep pace in the NL West, and got it when free agents Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija were handed $220 million between them. Cueto struggled after being acquired by the Royals at the trade deadline last season, but the former Reds ace should be more comfortable back in the National League. Samardzija is more of a wild card, having flopped badly with the White Sox in 2015, but he could also turn his fortunes around pitching in a more forgiving home ballpark. Center fielder Denard Span also came aboard after spending the last few years with the Nationals, allowing the Giants to move Angel Pagan to left field in an effort to keep him healthier.

The Dodgers are still the team to beat in the division, and the Diamondbacks made a lot of noise of their own over the winter, but the Giants loom as a serious threat once again after an offseason that addressed all of their critical needs. A fourth October parade in seven years could be on the horizon.

Pitcher To Watch

Jeff Samardzija, P – The idea that some players try harder in their contract year still has some proponents, but for every data point in the theory's favor you have a counter example like Samardzija's 2015. By almost any measure it was the worst season of his career, but Shark still pulled in a hefty five-year, $90 million contract by virtue of being a starting pitcher with a past history of success and three straight seasons without a DL stint. A move away from US Cellular Field to AT&T Park can only help his numbers, but it's not like Samardzija's 4.61 road ERA last year was any kind of acceptable. The main culprit in his decline appears to be a sudden loss of faith in his fastball. His velocity remained strong, but he threw the pitch a career-low 39.6% of the time, a more than 15 percent drop from 2014, and instead tried to lean harder on his cut fastball. If pitching coach Dave Righetti, who's worked bigger miracles, can finally unlock Samardzija's talent he could do far more than just rebound, but at 31 years old it's also possible that he just never becomes the pitcher his plus arsenal suggests he could be.

Hitter To Watch

Brandon Crawford, SS – Crawford came into 2015 with just 26 career home runs, but he nearly matched that total with an outstanding campaign that saw him lead all major league shortstops in homers and RBI while making his first All-Star appearance. His glove is going to keep him in the lineup regardless of how well he hits, but Crawford's ability to keep the gains he made last year with his bat will be one of the more interesting subplots of the 2016 season. While there's nothing in his minor league profile to suggest a power spike was coming, he wouldn't be the first athletic middle infielder to develop into a home run hitter in his late 20s, with Ben Zobrist being only the most recent example prior to Crawford. His home park, as well as the regression boogeyman dragging down his 16.2% HR/FB rate, could conspire to prevent another 20-plus homer season, but there's little in his batting profile to indicate last year's outburst was a total fluke.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Matt Duffy, 3B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Brandon Belt, 1B
5. Hunter Pence, RF
6. Brandon Crawford, SS
7. Joe Panik, 2B
8. Angel Pagan, LF

vs. LHP

1. Angel Pagan, LF
2. Matt Duffy, 3B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Brandon Belt, 1B
5. Hunter Pence, RF
6. Brandon Crawford, SS
7. Kelby Tomlinson, 2B
8. Denard Span, CF

Span is the only major addition to last year's lineup, and if he can remain healthy (something he struggled with in 2015) he should give the Giants a strong leadoff presence. The platoon at second base isn't so much a result of Panik's issues against lefties as it is due to the fact that Tomlinson crushed them last season to the tune of a .371/.381/.532 slash line. If that proves to be a small-sample fluke, Panik could seize the job on a full-time basis. Interleague DH at-bats could become a platoon between Tomlinson and September sensation Jarrett Parker.

Projected Rotation

Madison Bumgarner
Johnny Cueto
Jeff Samardzija
Matt Cain
Jake Peavy

The offseason acquisitions of Cueto and Samardzija push last year's surprise, Chris Heston, back to the bullpen or to Triple-A to begin the season, but neither Cain nor Peavy are sure things at this point in their careers, so there could be plenty of work for Heston once again in 2016. Prospect Clayton Blackburn could also push his way into the conversation if he has another strong season at Sacramento.

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Santiago Casilla

Hunter Strickland
Sergio Romo
Javier Lopez
George Kontos
Josh Osich
Mike Broadway

Casilla fell into the closer role almost by default last season but he put together a strong performance, setting a new career high in saves and posting a K/9 above 9.0 for the first time since 2010. His raw stuff isn't terribly exciting, though, and the Giants have a history of yanking closers quickly when they stumble (see: Romo, Sergio). If that were to happen, Romo could get another look, but the most likely candidate to take over the role is Strickland given his ability to touch triple digits with his fastball.

Riser

Hunter Pence, OF – After eight seasons of rock-solid consistency, Pence was brought low last year by a spring training fastball that broke his forearm and held him out of action until mid-May. Additional arm issues and an oblique strain ended up restricting him to 52 games, but when he was on the field he still produced nine home runs and an .805 OPS, right in line with his usual production. He'll turn 33 just after Opening Day, and his age combined with last season's injuries could create doubt in the minds of some as to whether he'll be able to return to form. There's really no reason to think his 2015 was the beginning of a downward trend, but if that perception lowers his price tag at the draft table, all the better.

Faller

Matt Duffy, 3B – The Giants have an uncanny knack for producing players who seem to produce better numbers in the majors than they do in the minors, but even so it's hard to imagine Duffy joining those ranks over the long haul. A slap hitter with solid strike zone control and a bit of speed who didn't show much during his 2014 cup of coffee, Duffy wasn't expected to make an immediate impact when he inherited the third base job from Pablo Sandoval, but he instead finished second to Kris Bryant in NL Rookie of the Year voting after hitting .295 with 12 home runs. His batted ball profile is groundball heavy, however, and while his 9.4% HR/FB rate was about league average, it wouldn't take much for him to fall back into single digits in that category. He also wasn't able to maintain the batting eye he'd shown in the minors, seeing his walk rate tumble to just 4.9%, which leaves his overall offensive production highly dependent on his BABIP. Duffy should still be a safe bet for double-digit steals with a full season of playing time, giving him a safety net in terms of his fantasy value, but the rest of his numbers suggest a decline could well be on the way.

Sleeper

Hunter Strickland, P – Strickland's cache as a sleeper isn't so much based on what he might do as it is on what Santiago Casilla won't do, namely stay effective. Casilla is now 35, and while his arsenal is solid it isn't anything close to elite, as his 3.6 BB/9 and 0.93 HR/9 rates attest. If he struggles at all in the closer role, manager Bruce Bochy has shown in the past that he won't hesitate to make a switch, and while former closer Sergio Romo is also an option, Romo's issues against left-handed hitters likely prevents him from getting another shot. Strickland, on the other hand, is the bullpen's young hotness, averaging 97 mph with his fastball with strong control and an improving slider. If Bochy feels the need to give ninth-inning duties to someone else, Strickland should get his chance to shine.

Supersleeper

Jarrett Parker, OF – A second-round pick back in 2010, the 27-year-old Parker finally made his major league debut last year after a strong campaign at Triple-A and exploded for a .347/.407/.755 slash line that included six home runs in just 49 at-bats. He strikes out too much for that batting average to be sustainable, but the power is legit and he also stole 21 bases between the two levels. As a low-average power-speed threat hitting towards the bottom of a solid lineup, Parker might well put up some very interesting numbers, but at present he doesn't have a clear path to regular playing time with Denard Span now in town and both Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence healthy and manning the corner outfield spots. All three veterans battled injuries last season, however, and if Parker breaks camp on the Giants' bench, he'll be just one DL stint away from getting his shot.

Colorado Rockies

State of the Franchise

The mediocrity train kept rolling for the Rockies in 2015, as for the fifth straight season they finished below .500 and either fourth or fifth in the NL West. Despite the lack of recent success, the front office doesn't seem inclined to blow up the roster and attempt a full rebuild, instead continuing to tinker around the edges of a core that no longer features Troy Tulowitzki or Justin Morneau, but does still contain Carlos Gonzalez and younger stars Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. The problems presented by the extreme altitude of their home park remain a puzzle that the organization has yet to solve, however. The Rockies led the NL in run scoring at 4.55 per game, but were nearly two runs worse on the road (5.54 per game at home, 3.56 per game away), and the pitching staff continues to suffer under both the physical and mental hurdles presented by their home ballpark.

That's not to say GM Jeff Bridich won't keep trying. After signing Gerardo Parra as a free agent, he eliminated an outfield logjam by sending Corey Dickerson to the Rays for Jake McGee, giving the club potentially its best closer since Brian Fuentes' heyday. McGee's fastball-heavy approach gives him a chance to succeed where others have failed, and the addition of Jason Motte to his setup crew adds another bullpen arm that doesn't have much of a breaking pitch to be squelched by the thin air. Beyond that, however, reinforcements will have to come from within, as no extra arms were brought in to bolster the patchwork rotation, and aside from the emergence of Nolan Arenado in 2015, the offense is still too dependent on the continued health of Carlos Gonzalez and availability of Jose Reyes to truly thrive.

With both the Giants and Diamondbacks making major upgrades in the offseason, and the Dodgers continuing to cruise as the three-time reigning division champs, the Rockies appear headed for another season as an also-ran where even a .500 record could be out of reach.

Pitcher To Watch

Jake McGee – Picked up from the Rays for outfielder Corey Dickerson, McGee might be one of the few pitchers with the stuff to hold his own in Coors Field, as the lefty relies almost exclusively on his fastball and doesn't have to worry about his crooked pitches being less crooked at altitude. That doesn't mean he will put up great numbers at home, of course, but it does give him a chance of having a less egregious home/road split than your typical Colorado hurler. There are other concerns with McGee aside from his new address, however. After a late start to last season due to elbow surgery, his velocity was down nearly two mph to 94.5, and if an offseason of rest doesn't restore his heat to full blast, his flyball tendencies could be a big liability at Coors. Given what they gave up to acquire him, he should be a safe bet to hold onto the Rockies' closer role unless he completely falls on his face, but whether McGee becomes a low-end source of saves with ugly ratios, as most Rockies closers tend to be, or something more valuable remains to be seen.

Hitter To Watch

DJ LeMahieu, 2B – A pop gun amid the Rockies' heavy artillery, LeMahieu had a strong year as the starting second baseman, hitting .301 with 23 steals. As a player without much power but excellent contact skills, his production is heavily BABIP-dependent, and under normal circumstances his .364 BABIP would be a prime candidate for regression. Playing your home games in Coors Field is not a normal circumstance, however. LeMahieu traded flyballs for line drives last season, and if he can resist the temptation to swing for the fences, it's entirely possible that he'll be able to maintain a high BABIP and the high batting average that comes along with it. His ability to draw a walk and reach base at a solid clip could also see him sneak up to the top of the batting order, especially if Jose Reyes misses time to his usual injuries and/or a league suspension for his offseason arrest, resulting in more run-scoring opportunities.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

1. Charlie Blackmon, CF
2. Jose Reyes, SS
3. Carlos Gonzalez, RF
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Gerardo Parra, LF
6. Ben Paulsen, 1B
7. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
8. Nick Hundley, C

vs. LHP

1. Charlie Blackmon, CF
2. Jose Reyes, SS
3. Carlos Gonzalez, RF
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Gerardo Parra, LF
6. Mark Reynolds, 1B
7. DJ LeMahieu, 2B
8. Nick Hundley, C

When healthy this is a lineup that can score some runs, although there's really no way to predict how healthy Gonzalez and Reyes will stay. There has been some talk of moving CarGo to first base to save wear and tear on him, but Paulsen showed enough last season to get a chance at regular at-bats and the Rockies don't have an obvious candidate to replace Gonzalez in right field. Reynolds will likely get the first crack at DH at-bats during interleague play.

Projected Rotation

Jorge De La Rosa
Chad Bettis
Jon Gray
Jordan Lyles
Tyler Chatwood

De La Rosa has had an ERA of 4.17 or less in each of the last three season, which by Rockies standards makes him a bona fide ace. Bettis emerged as a fantasy streaming option last season with some decent road numbers, but after that it's the usual mixed bag of prospects who haven't been able to make the leap in the thin air (Gray) and reclamation projects (Lyles and Chatwood). If any of them falter, and it's almost certain some of them will, Chris Rusin, Eddie Butler and Tyler Matzek are the next sacrificial lambs, err, pitchers in line.

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Jake McGee

Jason Motte
Chad Qualls
Jairo Diaz
Justin Miller
Boone Logan
Chris Rusin

The latest strategy in the Colorado front office appears to be collecting relievers who don't throw many breaking pitches, in the hopes that they can get by on their fastball alone. If McGee and Motte manage to form an effective late-inning duo purely on velocity and location, expect them to be joined in that approach by Diaz, who averages 97 mph with his fastball last season but hasn't been able to match it with an effective slider.

Riser

Gerardo Parra, OF – The Corey Dickerson trade opened up a starting job for Parra, who was already coming off a season in which he hit a career-high 14 home runs and was two off his career-best XBH pace with 55. He's enjoyed playing in hitter's parks throughout his time in the majors, moving from Arizona to Milwaukee to Baltimore, but none of those ballparks can match the offensive boost provided by Coors Field. He had a career-low 47 percent groundball rate in 2015, and if he keeps putting the ball in the air, good things will happen. Parra's not a true power hitter, but don't be surprised if he threatens the 20-homer mark for the first time this year.

Faller

Jose Reyes, SS – Reyes' arrest in November will be the first high-profile case the league will handle under its new domestic violence policy, and commissioner Rob Manfred doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will make the same mistakes NFL commissioner Roger Goodell did. Reyes' trial is scheduled to start right as the season begins, which figures to distract him even when he does play, but the specter of a harsh, example-setting suspension from the commissioner's office also looms large. Even if Reyes stays relatively healthy, something he's managed to do just twice in the last seven seasons, there's a very good chance he'll miss a portion of the season due to suspension. Given the cost inflation that comes with a Rockies' uniform, you're probably better off letting someone else make that investment.

Sleeper

Trevor Story, SS – If Reyes does miss a significant portion of the season, someone will need to play shortstop, and that's where Story comes in. Added to the 40-man roster in the offseason, the 23-year-old is coming off a season in which he hit a combined .279/.350/.514 between Double-A and Triple-A, launching 20 home runs, stealing 22 bases and restoring the prospect status he'd seemingly lost after shaky 2013 and 2014 campaigns. Christian Adames had a good season at Triple-A as well in 2015 and could, in theory, get the first crack at replacing Reyes as his service time clock has already started, but Story is the better long-term option. If he continues his development and seizes whatever opportunity he gets this year, Reyes may not get his job back when he returns.

Supersleeper

Tom Murphy, C – Nick Hundley began his tenure with the Rockies looking like he was going to have a breakout season as so many hitters before him had, but by the end of the year his power numbers were decidedly ordinary, and only a .357 BABIP saved his final line from looking exactly the way it always did at sea level. His defense also left something to be desired, and as he heads into the final year of his contract, Colorado could easily decide to move him or start breaking in his replacement. That replacement would be Murphy, fresh off a .271/.301/.535 line in 33 Triple-A games before a .257/.333/.543 cup of coffee in the majors. He strikes out too much and doesn't draw enough walks, which puts a definite ceiling on his fantasy upside, but a catcher who hit 23 home runs across three levels last season still has a lot of potential value in Coors. Especially in deep two-catcher formats where quality options drop off quickly, stashing Murphy could pay big dividends.

San Diego Padres

State of the Franchise

It's fair to wonder if Padres GM A.J. Preller actually has any sort of plan in place. Just one offseason after a frenetic shopping spree that didn't exactly pan out but seemed aimed at getting San Diego to the top of the division in a hurry, he completely reversed course, making no effort to retain or adequately replace Justin Upton and trading away closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joaquin Benoit. The radical swings leave the club saddled with big contracts attached to aging assets like James Shields and Matt Kemp but not much of a supporting cast for them and a thin farm system that lacks many immediate solutions, essentially the worst of both worlds. Adding insult to injury, Preller also mis-managed his 40-man roster to the point that he was forced to deal former organizational top-10 prospect Rymer Liriano away for peanuts, which doesn't create much faith in his ability to turn the franchise around.

The roster isn't completely bereft of upside, however. Talented but volatile pitchers Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner are both eligible for free agency next season and could be spurred to better results. Former Royals and Rays uber-prospect Wil Myers has had trouble staying healthy, but could have a breakout season if he can avoid the DL. And the organization's one remaining homegrown top prospect, Hunter Renfroe, got his first taste of Triple-A last year. The Padres haven't won more than 77 games in any of the last five seasons, but there are enough pieces here to make a push above .500 if everything falls into place for them.

That push seems more like a prayer than a concrete plan, however. In a division that features the well-funded and perennially-dangerous Dodgers and two teams in the Giants and Diamondbacks that made big offseason moves to buttress a strong core, the Padres seem more likely to bring up the rear than lead the pack.

Pitcher To Watch

Tyson Ross – Ross' performance seemed to take a step back after his 2014 campaign, and it's easy to see why. His BB/9 rate has increased for three straight seasons, from 3.2 to 3.3 to 3.9, but the loss of control doesn't tell the whole story with him. According to FIP, it was the best year of his career, as his K/9 rate, GB/FB rate and HR/9 rate all improved, and the bullpen did him no favors with a below-average 74.9% strand rate. Ross' fastball continued to lose some oomph, averaging just 92.8 mph in 2015, but he's compensated with increased usage of his slider. Heading into his final year before free agency, he's become one of the biggest fantasy wild cards in the league. If his velocity keeps dropping and his control keeps slipping, his numbers could collapse entirely. On the other hand, if he continues getting grounders and K's with his slider and simply gets more support from his defense and bullpen, he could match or even top his 2014. His home ballpark gives him a bit of a safety net, but as Ian Kennedy showed last season, simply being in the Padres' rotation doesn't guarantee you useful numbers from a fantasy perspective.

Hitter To Watch

Wil Myers, OF – For the second straight season injuries cost Myers significant playing time, and it's getting harder and harder to remember the can't-miss prospect he seemed to be coming up through the Royals' system just a few years ago. There were, however, some small signs of hope in his 2015 performance. While he struggled in Petco Park, his .272/.359/.495 slash line in 103 road at-bats was downright impressive, and his numbers in the first two-plus months before undergoing June wrist surgery were nearly as good (.277/.327/.459). It should be noted, however, that he did most of that damage in 56 at-bats in Coors Field and Chase Field, and while he'll still make trips to Colorado and Arizona as long as he remains in the NL West, they represent just a small percentage of the Padres' schedule. Myers has a lot of questions to answer in 2015. Is his wrist fully recovered, and can he stay generally healthy? Can he hit in the division's pitcher's parks, especially the one he calls home? His 64 home runs across three levels between 2012 and 2013 illustrates his potential as a power hitter, but the ink is fading fast.

Projected Lineup

vs. RHP

1. Yangervis Solarte, 3B
2. Jon Jay, LF
3. Wil Myers, 1B
4. Matt Kemp, RF
5. Derek Norris, C
6. Cory Spangenberg, 2B
7. Alexei Ramirez, SS
8. Travis Jankowski, CF

vs. LHP

1. Yangervis Solarte, 3B
2. Wil Myers, 1B
3. Matt Kemp, RF
4. Derek Norris, C
5. Jon Jay, LF
6. Melvin Upton Jr., CF
7. Alexei Ramirez, SS
8. Cory Spangenberg, 2B

When Jon Jay and Alexei Ramirez are your big offseason acquisitions, it's best not to expect too much from your offense. There's a little upside here if Kemp can carry his 2015 second half into 2016 and Myers can finally stay healthy and find his power stroke, but the bottom half of the batting order looks like it will struggle to generate runs. There's no obvious candidate for interleague DH at-bats, but bench options Brett Wallace and Rule 5 pick Jabari Blash could pick up some playing time.

Projected Rotation

James Shields
Tyson Ross
Andrew Cashner
Drew Pomeranz
Colin Rea

Like the offense, there's a lot of wishful thinking happening in the rotation, but that doesn't mean it lacks talent. A return to form for Shields and improvement from Ross and/or Cashner could go a long way in Petco. On the other hand, it could also just turn into a fire sale with Ross and Cashner both eligible for free agency next winter. Brandon Maurer will also get another look as a starter this spring, and Robbie Erlin could also get another look if he starts to put things together at Triple-A.

Bullpen Hierarchy

Closer: Fernando Rodney

Kevin Quackenbush
Nick Vincent
Jon Edwards
Ryan Buchter
Leonel Campos
Tayron Guerrero
Brandon Maurer

With Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit both dealt away in the offseason, the closer job seemed to fall into Quackenbush's lap, but then the Padres signed Rodney to muddy things up. Rodney's 2015 numbers in Seattle were dreadful, but after the Mariners cut him loose he found new life with the Cubs.

Riser

Yangervis Solarte, 3B/1B – Solarte was a nice surprise for the Padres in 2015, playing nearly every day and providing solid offense, but there's reason to think he might still have some untapped potential. He began the year in a utility role but eventually won the starting third base job, and his offense improved in the second half once he had a stable role as he slashed .292/.336/.470 in 264 at-bats with nine of his 14 home runs. With Jedd Gyorko now a Cardinal, Solarte has a clear path to a starting job to begin the season, and while he won't have a sudden breakout, steady improvement in his offensive numbers seems reasonable.

Faller

James Shields, P – "Big Game James" didn't have a lot of big games to pitch in last season, but he didn't do so well in the little games either. Signed to be the Padres' staff ace, he instead posted his worst numbers since 2010, although he did top 200 strikeouts for the third time in his career and racked up double-digit wins for the ninth straight year. There were plenty of warning signs that last year's stumble might instead be the beginning of a decline, however. His average fastball velocity dropped nearly a mph and a half, not something you want to see in a 34-year-old pitcher with a lot of mileage on his arm. His BB/9 rate was a career-worst 3.60, and despite having Petco Park as is home stomping grounds his HR/9 rate spiked to 1.47. Back in 2010, his awful ratios were principally due to an elevated BABIP. This time around, he has no such excuse. A rebound is always possible, but it's hard to see much upside in Shields through all the red flags that are piling up.

Sleeper

Travis Jankowski, OF – Jankowski seemed to appear out of nowhere last season, as following an injury-plagued 2014 he raced through the upper minors before landing in a center field platoon with the Padres and, well, to be honest, not doing much with his bat. Even if you dismiss both his ugly .211/.245/.344 major league slash line and .392/.464/.496 Triple-A slash line equally as small sample flukes, however, there's still some value to be found in the middle. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Jankowski doesn't have any power to speak of, but he's capable of a solid batting average and OBP thanks to a good batting eye and his wheels are true 70-grade, as his 33 steals across three levels last season are dwarfed by the 71 he stole at High-A in 2013. If he's stuck hitting eighth in front of pitcher it will put a definite damper on his opportunities to run, but a move up to the top of the batting order could do wonders for him. If you're looking for the next Billy Burns, Jankowski should be at the top of your list.

Supersleeper

Brandon Maurer, P – Maurer was shifted to the bullpen over the last two seasons and excelled before running into some shoulder inflammation towards the end of 2015, gaining more than two mph on his fastball and ditching his mediocre curve in favor of a cut fastball and changeup, so naturally the Padres are thinking of converting him back into a starter because of reasons. His stuff is good enough that he could in theory win a spot in the rotation and do relatively well if he stays healthy, but his spot as a sleeper is based on the idea that the conversion won't take and he'll remain in a relief role, where only the wildly erratic Fernando Rodney and the solid but unspectacular Kevin Quackenbush would stand between his 95 mph heat and the closing gig. As deep league stashes go, you can't do much better than a talented arm with multiple paths to value.