Regan's Rumblings: Opt Outs and Other News

It's really tough to believe that after all "this," we're less than 10 days from Opening Day. I fully expect the season to start then, but whether we get a full 60 games plus playoffs has to be less than a 100 percent possibility, right? COVID-19 cases continue to rise, seemingly everywhere. David Price and Buster Posey are the big names to have opted out of playing in 2020, but at least for now, it appears Mike Trout will play. Trout, whose wife is expecting their first child sometime in August, was speculated as a potential opt out. Had that happened, would we even have a season? Sure, we've all heard the expression that no player is above the team or the sport, but this is Mike Trout. I'm no Angels fan, but I certainly hope he plays. With that, let's look at some recent news out of camps…

The opt outs and the trickle-down effects

David Price, SP, LAD – Price leaves a pretty significant hole in the Dodgers' rotation, but fortunately they continue to have ridiculous depth. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Alex Wood are locks for four spots, leaving one now up for grabs. Ross Stripling is an early leader for that slot, but he'll face competition from the likes of Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and, perhaps eventually, prospect Josiah Gray. I guess if I had to project games started, it would go something like: Kershaw, Buehler, and Urias – 12 each. Wood – 9, Stripling – 7, May – 4, Gonsolin – 3, Gray – 1.

Buster Posey, C, SF – Posey's opt out leaves the Giants with a projected duo of Tyler Heineman and Rob Brantly. Not exactly ideal. Heineman is 29 with just 12 career MLB plate appearances while Brantly is a 31-year-old journeyman with just one MLB PA since 2017. Enter Joey Bart? Bart is RotoWire's No. 44 overall prospect and is a former No. 2 overall prospect. Bart reached Double-A last year and hit a strong .316/.368/.544 there in 22 games, and Giants fans certainly would prefer him over the other options at the position. Manager Gabe Kapler did say, however, that he didn't think Bart was a candidate to replace Posey at this point. Maybe once he sees Heineman and Brantly play, he'll change his tune.

Nick Markakis, OF, ATL – For now we have Adam Duvall tapped as the Braves' primary left fielder, but this would also seem to open the door for both Austin Riley and Johan Camargo to receive regular playing time. Marcell Ozuna appears set to DH, leaving LF and 3B open for some combination of Riley, Duvall and Camargo. Duvall would seem to be the odd man out at 31, but in just 130 PA last year, Duvall homered 10 times while batting .267/.315/.567. Most of that damage came off lefties, so if Riley and Camargo show enough this "spring," it seems likely Duvall ends up on the wrong side of a platoon, leaving his value limited to DFS formats.

Rather than scratch all of that, I'll leave as is and note the impact of Tuesday's signing by the Braves of Yasiel Puig. Puig will surely start in right field with Ronald Acuna moving to left and Marcell Ozuna being the full-time DH. This would seem to rule out much of a role for Duvall and push out any real impacts from Drew Waters and Cristian Pache until 2021 at the earliest. The Braves are signing Puig quite late in the process, so his availability for the start of the season remains unknown at best, though once he's in there, he should benefit from what is looking like a pretty good lineup.

Mike Leake, SP, ARI – With Luke Weaver now projecting as the No. 4 starter, that leaves Merrill Kelly and Alex Young battling for the No. 5 slot. Young managed a 3.56 ERA last year, but if you dig deeper and factor in a 4.80 FIP, 1.5 HR/9 and so-so ratios (7.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9), Kelly is probably the favorite for now. I'd expect this battle to continue into the season before a winner emerges.

Joe Ross, SP, WAS – Ross's opt out leaves Austin Voth as probably the slight favorite over Erick Fedde for the No. 5 starter role, though as with many teams, the Nationals could employ a six-man rotation, at least initially. Voth probably has a slight leg up coming off a September in which he posted a 2.35 ERA and 24:7 K:BB in 23 innings. He also looked good this spring pre-shutdown. Fedde, meanwhile, has managed just a 5.39 ERA in 143.2 big league innings over three seasons, so his time may be running out.

Ian Desmond, OF, COL – Desmond was probably going to be limited to the wrong side of a platoon anyway, so this impact is minimal. It should result in additional security for Sam Hilliard and Raimel Tapia, though both of those guys are LH hitters as well. The Rockies depth chart currently has LH hitters topping the charts in all three outfield positions, the fourth outfielder (Hilliard or Tapia), DH with Daniel Murphy and first base with Ryan McMahon. The Rockies will take this opportunity to see if Matt Kemp has anything left, and they hope that one of their young guys (Garrett Hampson or Brendan Rodgers) will emerge as a long-term option at second base.

Michael Kopech, SP, CHW – Kopech wasn't guaranteed anything prior to his opt out, but this seems to solidify Gio Gonzalez as the No. 5 starter for what it's worth.

Jordan Hicks, RP, STL – Hicks (Tommy John surgery) probably wouldn't have been ready for the start of the season, but his opt out clears the way for Ryan Helsley or Carlos Martinez to be the Cardinals' closer. Giovanny Gallegos is another option, but he's having trouble getting to the US from Mexico, leaving his availability up in the air. The Cardinals appear to be treating Martinez as a starter, though that remains to be seen, particularly if Gallegos is not available.

Felix Hernandez, SP, ATL – Hernandez appeared set to share time with Sean Newcomb at the back end of the Braves rotation, but now we'll be left wondering if we've seen the last of King Felix. Now the job should be Newcomb's alone, but who really knows how things will work out once this kicks off. Kyle Wright and Josh Tomlin are around to provide innings, and we could see Ian Anderson make his debut at some point, but overall, this is good news for Newcomb owners. His main issue has been control, as the lefty has a 4.5 BB/9 for his career, though he has lowered that in each of his last two seasons. He was better as a reliever last year, posting an 8.5 BB percentage versus 14.3 as a starter, so this could be his last chance to be a full-time starter.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. moving to first base

Not having Vlad Jr. eligible at 3B in 2021 will hurt dynasty owners a little, but maybe the position change will allow him to settle in and further tap his potential at the plate. For a 20-year-old to hit .272/.339/.433 at the big-league level and be termed a disappointment speaks to the enormous expectations put on his shoulders. Further, Vlad did hit .293/.349/.452 in the second half and is a real candidate to improve to .310/.370/.500 as early as this year. The change will result in the Blue Jays going with Travis Shaw at third base and Rowdy Tellez scrambling for 1B/DH at-bats.

Rockies closer Wade Davis already on shaky ground

Davis fared well in limited action (3.1 hitless innings) this spring, but when you're coming off a season in which you posted an 8.65 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, the leash is likely short. That leaves Scott Oberg, Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez as potential early-season FAAB options. With Oberg coming off back-to-back strong seasons (combined 2.35 ERA from 2018-2019), he's probably next man up.

Joc Pederson may run more?

Pederson reportedly is working on his flexibility and movement on the basepaths and in the field this spring. Seems like he would have been doing that all along, but these are the kind of news stories available at this point. Pederson hit a career-high 36 home runs last year en route to a .249/.339/.538 slash line. He's useless against southpaws these days, but between LF and DH, he should be in the lineup fairly regularly. Pederson once stole 31 bases in a minor league season, but that was seven years ago, and, in 297 MLB games since 2017, he's managed just two steals total. Could the work he's been doing this spring push that closer to double digits (prorated of course)? Who knows, but he's reportedly swiped two bases in intrasquad action recently.

Anthony Rizzo to miss time?

Any injuries that pop up at this point put players at serious risk for missing the start of the season, and that certainly would seem to apply to Rizzo and his sore back. Back injuries are tricky, and though Rizzo reportedly lost a bunch of weight over the winter, I guess that didn't help. So, what is Plan B at first base? This would seem to be a way to get Victor Caratini's bat into the lineup with more frequency. Caratini was slated to be Yu Darvish's personal catcher backing up Willson Contreras, but if Rizzo misses time, Caratini could play first with Josh Phegley backing up Contreras. Caratini hit a solid .266/.348/.447 with 11 homers in 279 PA last year, and his overall Triple-A numbers are impressive as well. In 119 games there over parts of three seasons, Caratini has an impressive .332/.393/.527 slash, controlling the strike zone well with a solid 15.4 K percentage.

Edwin Rios an option in deeper leagues?

Rios is doing everything he can to make the initial 30-man roster. He's hit three home runs in intrasquad action while showing improved defense at third base. In the minors, Rios has played 1B, 3B and the corner OF slots, giving him the flexibility manager Dave Roberts covets. He was also impressive in 56 MLB PA late last year, batting .277/.393/.617, albeit with a 37.5 K percentage, a ratio that was also above 30 percent in each of his last two Triple-A stints. He's probably not going to ever be a .300 hitter, but a guy with positional flexibility and his power (35 HR last year) could have some NL-only/deep mixed-league value. With A.J. Pollock (undisclosed) still not in camp (COVID?), Rios could even be the Opening Day DH.