Regan's Rumblings: 10 Position Decisions

Seeing fans in the stands during Spring Training action was a beautiful sight, and with COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations down significantly, hopefully baseball gets back to some sense of normalcy sooner rather than later. As we kick this weekly feature back up, I wanted to look at 10 key position battles I'll be monitoring this spring. Obviously in addition to talent, a player's fantasy value is driven off of opportunity. The more at-bats and innings, the more opportunity the player has to be a fantasy asset. Here are a few:

Dodgers – Who's on second?

The Dodgers have given every indication that the job is Gavin Lux' for the taking. They did not sign a veteran second baseman to compete with Lux, though they still have their usual amount of depth still on the roster. Chris Taylor, Max Muncy and Zach McKinstry could all see time at the position should Lux struggle. Moving Muncy to second would open up a spot for Edwin Rios, so as usual, the Dodgers have options. Lux is still 23, but, coming off a disappointing 2020 that saw him log just 69 plate appearances while batting .175/.246/.349, he has a little something to prove. Lux reportedly had a productive winter, and it showed in his first spring action when he went 2-for-3. Lux hit .392 in Triple-A back in 2019 and still ranks as one of baseball's top prospects, so he's the favorite to open as the team's second baseman.

Prediction: Lux gets the job and hits .290/.370/.490 with 23 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

Pirates – Outfield spots up for grabs?

Manager Derek Shelton has already named Gregory Polanco and Bryan Reynolds as starters, apparently leaving one spot up for grabs. The candidates are plentiful: Jared Oliva, Anthony Alford, Brian Goodwin and Dustin Fowler among others. Shelton alluded to Fowler being a reserve, but, given the lack of Barry Bonds and Bobby Bonilla types in the mix, I like Fowler in deeper leagues. Even Polanco (.153 in 2020) and Reynolds (.189 with a 27.5 K percentage) could lose playing time if they get off to slow starts. Fowler hasn't done much since missing 2017 with that rough knee injury, though he did hit 25 home runs and steal 12 bases in a so-so 2019 Triple-A campaign (.277/.333/.477). He was a fairly highly regarded prospect at one point and will now look to take advantage of what may be his last opportunity to carve out regular playing time.

Prediction: Fowler gets 450 at-bats and hits .270/.320/.470 with 20 home runs and 10 steals, ending the year as an everyday player.

Astros – Who's in center?

Not George Springer.

There really isn't an obvious candidate. Right now, Myles Straw appears to top the depth chart, but guys like Chas McCormick, Steven Souza and perhaps Robel Garcia could be in the mix. Straw got off to a nice start Sunday with two hits, but he offers zero power, having hit just four minor league home runs in more than 2,100 plate appearances. His fantasy profile is a bit more interesting, particularly in OBP leagues, as Straw batted .269/.378/.343 with eight steals for the Astros in 2019 (128 plate appearances) before posting just a .207/.244/.256 line last year in 86 plate appearances. Straw also swiped 70 bases in the minors in 2018, and with old school Dusty Baker at the helm, he could see plenty of reps at leadoff early on. Whether he hits enough to stay in the lineup remains to be seen, but, even as a reserve, Straw could swipe 25-plus bases.

Prediction: Straw steals 25 bases but sees his playing time drop sharply when the Astros trade for a center fielder.

Cardinals – Your 2021 saves leader is…?

I'll get to that, but for now, Rotowire has six possibilities listed on our Cardinals depth chart, with another, Carlos Martinez, a potential candidate should he not be the No. 5 starter. Jordan Hicks has elite stuff and has looked impressive in camp, though he hasn't pitched since June 2019 (Tommy John surgery/COVID-19 opt-out). When we last saw Hicks, he was averaging 101.2 mph with his fastball, though a career 4.7 BB/9 highlights his main shortcoming. Giovanny Gallegos is another strong option, having posted a 2.53 ERA and 114:20 K:BB in 89 innings since 2018, though he doesn't throw nearly as hard (93.7 mph average fastball in 2020) as Hicks. Andrew Miller could pick up an opportunity here at there, while always-intriguing Alex Reyes is another option should he not grab a rotation spot. Reyes is also off to a nice start this spring and should not be ruled out as a potential closer.

Prediction: No one gets more than 20 saves. Gallegos starts out as the closer in April, with Hicks taking over at some point in the first half.

Cubs – Who closes once Craig Kimbrel flames out?

Carlos Marmol available? Brandon Workman posted an elite year in 2019, saving 16 games with a 1.88 ERA and 104 strikeouts. Then like for many, 2020 wasn't good, as he rode a .443 BABIP to a 5.97 ERA and 2.24 WHIP. One would think Workman would be better this year. Rowan Wick will be another option once he returns from an intercostal injury, though that may not happen prior to Opening Day. Wick has a 3.20 ERA and 9.5 K/9 over 59 innings across parts of three seasons and allowed just one run in his last 8.1 innings in 2020. Kimbrel is in the last year of his contract, making it more likely he's cut loose if he's looking like a sunk cost in the first half of 2021. To be fair, Kimbrel's last eight appearances of 2020 were pretty good: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K.

Prediction: Kimbrel starts strong, racking up 20 saves before either getting hurt or losing the job to Workman.

Mariners – Does Jarred Kelenic make the team?

Seems unlikely, but with the comments made by former President Kevin Mather, he could look to force the issue. Jake Fraley currently projects as the left fielder, but he's yet to prove he can hit above .200 at the big league level, and Kelenic is RotoWire's No. 4 overall prospect. That said, he's still just 21, and his career resume above High-A reads as follows: 21 Double-A games and a slash line of .253/.315/.542. Decent, but with a lack of experience. Beyond Fraley and Kelenic in left, the Mariners could utilize the likes of Jose Marmolejos there, or perhaps Dylan Moore if they want to give Shed Long or Ty France a look at second. Ultimately, I'd expect 500+ MLB PA from Kelenic this year.

Prediction: The Mariners find some excuse to have Kelenic open in the minors. He joins the team sometime in May and hits .300/.375/.500 and ultimately signs with the Dodgers after the 2027 season.

Nationals – Who's on third?

Like Gavin Lux and the Dodgers, the Nationals organization would clearly hope that Carter Kieboom fares well enough this spring to win the job outright. Take this with a grain of salt, but Kieboom had LASIK eye surgery over the offseason and he tweaked his batting stance. We'll have to wait to see whether this yields any sort of results, but Kieboom is still a guy who hit .303/.409/.493 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A in 2019. He's had rather limited success at the MLB level the last two years, but in 165 PA, Kieboom does have a 13.9 K percentage, so he's at least done something right. He somehow managed just one XBH among his 20 hits last year, so hopefully the surgery and new approach help with his power as well. The other third base options include Starlin Castro, should Luis Garcia win the second base job, and Josh Harrison, but the ceiling on Kieboom is considerably higher.

Prediction: Kieboom wins the job, plays in 140 games, and hits .260/.360/.430 with 17 home runs and five steals.

Rangers – Is Nate Lowe the everyday first baseman?

Is it just me or do the Rangers have arguably the worst roster in the American League? Kyle Gibson, Opening Day starter? This looks like a full rebuild waiting to happen, so they may as well roll with Lowe for 150-plus games in 2021. Lowe showed some promise in 2019, batting .289/.421/.508 in Triple-A before joining the Rays and finishing at .263/.325/.454 in 50 games. He stalled a bit last year, but hey, 2020 right? He did post a 1.364 OPS in his final seven games, if you feel that's a sufficient sample size. Lowe could also reportedly play third base if the Rangers want to give Ronald Guzman another shot at first, so they obviously seem to want to get his bat in the lineup.

Prediction: Both Guzman and Lowe start on Opening Day, relegating Rougned Odor to the bench or waiver wire.

Rockies – Can Garrett Hampson carve out regular at-bats?

Hampson is off to a 3-for-4 start this spring, so I guess yes? With Nolan Arenado off to St. Louis, Ryan McMahon projects as the everyday third baseman, leaving second to Hampson or Brendan Rodgers. If it's Rodgers, Hampson could reportedly play center field at the expense of Sam Hilliard or Raimel Tapia. Additionally, it is very possible that Trevor Story will be in a new uniform at some point in 2021, opening shortstop for one of Hampson or Rodgers. Either way, Hampson should have plenty of playing time. 

Prediction: Hampson splits time between second and center, and even sees some time at shortstop once Story is traded. He goes on to get 500-plus PA, and hits .270/.340/.440 with 15 homers and 20 stolen bases.

Twins – Will Alex Kirilloff be the Opening Day left fielder?

Kirilloff has yet to prove himself at the Triple-A level, but he's 23, a top-10 prospect in the game, and he reportedly raked at the team's alternate site last year. On talent alone, he's an easy call to start Opening Day, but will the Twins manipulate his service time and hold him down? Perhaps the news that the Triple-A season will be delayed a month will impact their decision, though the Twins could easily start him at Double-A and bring him up later in April. The other option for the Twins is to go with Jake Cave in left to start the year, though Cave has racked up a nearly 33 percent K percentage in his brief career and doesn't appear to project as a productive regular.

Prediction: Kirilloff makes the Opening Day roster and competes for the AL Rookie of the year award, ultimately losing out to Chicago's Andrew Vaughn.