Regan's Rumbings: Play Ball...I Think

Regan's Rumblings: Play Ball….I Think

My response to the question "On a scale of 1-100, how confident are you that we will have baseball this year?" has wavered wildly the past couple of months. When I wrote this column last week, I was fairly positive. A day later, probably more in the 30 to 40 percent confident range. I'm more at 95 percent now, as it sounds very official that spring training 2.0 will kick off July 1 with Opening Day around July 23. Of course, there is one massive X-factor:

COVID-19

We've already seen the virus hit multiple camps in infect players such as Charlie Blackmon. There's no doubt we will see other players with the IL designation during the year for COVID-19, leaving pennant races very much up in the air. Sure, the Dodgers are a huge playoff favorite, but what if Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and other Dodgers become infected in September with the team one game up on the Diamondbacks? So many unknowns right now.

Since everyone else is publishing their "things to watch for in 2020," here are a few of mine:

Where does Yasiel Puig land?

I really have no idea, but guessing the Giants for a couple reasons:

1.      Their as-is outfield doesn't exactly have a Willie Mays or Barry Bonds in it.

2.      President Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Puig. (Is that a good thing though?)

As constructed, the Giants' outfield would consist of starters Alex Dickerson, Billy Hamilton and Mike Yastrzemski. Dickerson isn't a bad player, having hit .276/.322/.489 in 68 games, but Dickerson is always hurt. Hamilton is fun to watch when he is on base and in the field, but as they say, you can't steal first. As a side note, the new extra innings rule should result in the Giants winning a fairly large percentage of their extra-innings games. Yaz was a nice story as a 28-year-old rookie, but can he come close to what he did last year? Puig should slide right into the right field slot, with Yaz moving to center and Hunter Pence handling DH duties.

How aggressively do teams promote top prospects?

Probably pretty aggressively. There doesn't seem likely to be any minor league season, so if a guy is deemed at least semiready and the team is trying to compete, I would imagine we'd see them up at some point in August. In past years, a team had to wait a couple weeks before promoting prospects to secure that valuable extra year of control. I believe that will be prorated this year, meaning a team would only have to wait a handful of games before bringing up their top guys. Here are some of the top guys to watch:

Should be on the Opening Day roster: Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, Dylan Carlson, Jesus Luzardo, Michael Kopech, A.J. Puk, Dustin May, Carter Kieboom, Spencer Howard

Should see these guys in early August at the latest: Jo Adell, MacKenzie Gore, Nate Pearson, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Luis Patino

Could get a look in the "second half": Forrest Whitley, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Alec Bohm, Drew Waters, Cristian Pache, Joey Bart

Look for them late in September: Julio Rodriguez, Alex Kirilloff, Andrew Vaughn, Sixto Sanchez, Clarke Schmidt

Are top starting pitchers going to be overvalued?

The big questions surrounding top starters are going to be:

1.      How sharp will they be early.

2.      How deep into games will they go.

3.      How many teams will go with a six-man (seven?) rotation, thus limiting starts.

If we assume top starters start 12 to 13 games, that's not a lot of time to ramp up and be top starters. I would imagine they would go five innings for the first couple starts and then ramp up from there. It's weird to think that no one is going to top 100 innings this year. The Yankees, for example, aren't going to want to baby their $324 million investment, Gerrit Cole, too much, but they also need to protect said investment. I can't imagine investing a first-round pick in a starter this year, though if I'm sitting at 12 in a 12-team mixed league and no starters have been taken, I'd be pretty tempted to go Cole/Jacob deGrom.

Will the 8/31 trade deadline be active?

I believe that's the deadline, and I think it probably will be disappointing for fans. It will be tough, for example, for the Rockies to move a guy like Nolan Arenado and the $234 million left on his deal with so much economic uncertainty. I also can't imagine they would want to include a load of cash in a deal to offload one of the best players in franchise history. Also, I think prospect hoarding will be taken to another level this year, as teams can slot those guys in at a minimum salary for 2021.

How will Astros' hitters fare?

Maybe guys like George Springer and Alex Bregman drop off a bit, but they aren't dropping off all that much. Maybe they are even a big undervalued. I can't really predict much of anything this year, but if Bregman is sitting there in the middle of the second round in a 12-team mixed snake draft, I'd pull the trigger quickly.

How will the lesser-known players who were good between July 23 and September 30 last year fare in 2020?

Jon Berti, MIA (.343 OBP, 4 HR, 40 runs, 16 SB) – With that line, Berti should have a starting slot, but that's not currently the case. Beating out Miguel Rojas or Isan Diaz could easily happen next month, however.

Garrett Hampson, COL (.335 OBP, 7 HR, 10 SB) – If Hampson can win the second base job, his value skyrockets.

Kyle Seager, SEA (.280/.364/.564, 16 HR) – Seager showed more power and with a 9.9 BB percentage, his plate discipline also showed improvement.

Willie Calhoun, TEX (.868 OPS, 16 HR) – Could have a huge year.

Jeff Samardzija, SF (2.66 ERA) – The peripherals don't support the ERA, but this impending free agent could surprise a little.

Will any stars opt-out of playing?

I jokingly told a fellow analyst last week that we needed a pair of additional columns in our spreadsheets: "Married? Y/N," and "No. of small children at home."

Is this really something to joke about or should we actually consider it for 2020 rankings? Let's look at Mike Trout for example. He and his wife married in 2017 and are expecting child No. 1 in August. There's zero reason to think Trout won't play this year, but what if his wife gets sick or something happens with the baby? 

Will impending free agents sign below-market extensions during the season to lock in cost certainty?

All eyes will be on Mookie Betts, who reportedly was seeking a $400 million extension from the Red Sox at one point. He won't get that now either with the Dodgers or on the open market, but baseball's financial situation may very well mean that teams could lock in guys on one-year pillow contracts or on long-term deals that wouldn't have been possible in winter 2019. If Betts is seeking to better Bryce Harper's 13-year $300 million deal, does he take a one-year $40 million deal from the Dodgers and hope teams' finances are better in 2021? Does he "settle" for $300 million as an extension with the Dodgers? We have no idea, but at this point, is anything off the table? My other top-five free agents include:

2. J.T. Realmuto, C, PHI – You'd have to think he'd easily top Yasmani Grandal's $73 million deal, perhaps approaching $100M-plus. Now though, who knows. Maybe he'll take an $80 million extension from the Phillies.

3. George Springer, OF, HOU – The Astros probably aren't going to be able to maintain a $210 million payroll next year, so Springer's departure could be a foregone conclusion unless he takes less money in an extension. Of course, there's always the sign-stealing scandal that could impact his interest on the open market, so perhaps a below-market extension happens.

4. Marcus Semien, SS, OAK – Either way, Semien is probably gone from the budget-strapped A's, but if he feels teams will be skeptical that 2019 was the outlier, he could settle for a smaller extension in Oakland.

5. Trevor Bauer, SP, CIN – Bauer probably gets more attention for his interesting Twitter account than he does for his pitching at this point. That said, the starting pitching market is barren this winter, and despite being 29 with one really good year under his belt, Bauer should fare well in free agency, whether it be continuing to go with one-year deals as he's been said to prefer, or over a four- to five-year deal with an average annual salary around $18 million.

Do injury-prone starting pitchers have more value in a 60-game season?

Quite possibly. In theory, pitchers with a spotty medical history would seem more likely to maintain their health over a 60-game season than one of 162 games. Take a guy like James Paxton. Playing for a team with a great offense, Paxton should get plenty of run support, but he's also a guy who has averaged just 23 starts over his last five full seasons. Take the period July 23 to September 30 last year, and Paxton led the majors with 10 wins, going 10-1 with a 3.32 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9. He could even contend for the AL Cy Young this year, if they're even giving out those awards. Others worth a look:

Corey Kluber, TEX – If Lance Lynn and Mike Minor can pitch well there, so can he, though where will he be pitching most of his games again?

Alex Wood, LAD – I feel like Wood can be really good for the Dodgers (see 2017), though as the No. 5 starter, he's on the verge of being passed up by the likes of Dustin May and others.

Rich Hill, MIN – The pandemic came at a good time for Hill (elbow). He should make a "full" slate of starts and be typically excellent.

Lance McCullers, HOU – Now post-Tommy John surgery, McCullers should be the No. 2 starter for a team that wants to prove the doubters wrong. He still has swing-and-miss stuff and actually could be healthy for a whole season in 2020.

Garrett Richards, SD – I wrote about him recently, but he belongs here, too. Richards looked good this spring and could be a huge fantasy asset this year.

Do teams push their 2020 draftees to the big leagues this year?

If they are competitive at some point in mid-August? Perhaps we see it. It's tough to see the Tigers, for example, giving Spencer Torkelson a look this year, but here are a few I could see rising up quickly. It's tough to see many hitters debuting this year, as it's obviously a huge leap, while a 95-mph fastball and plus slider can play at any level.

Garrett Crochet, SP, CHW – The 21-year-old southpaw stands 6'6" and was the 11th overall pick out of college. While he spent a lot of time as a reliever for Tennessee, the organization views him as a potential #3 starter, if not more, due to a solid three-pitch mix, including a 100-mph fastball (though that came out of the bullpen). The White Sox are clearly making a push having signed the likes of Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, and Dallas Keuchel this winter.

Clayton Beeter, RP, LAD – The No. 66 pick is 21 and clearly on the fast track. He can hit the upper-90s with his fastball with excellent breaking stuff. For Texas Tech in 21 innings, Beeter acted as a starter, recording a 2.14 ERA and elite 33:4 K:BB. Maybe long-term he's a starter, but the Dodgers have plenty of those now as well as plenty of questions in the bullpen.

Reid Detmers, SP, LAA – The lefty isn't a hard thrower by any means, but he's as polished as any pitcher in his class, and the Angels are a team that is both looking to win now and looking for quality rotation options, of which they have very few "sure" things. Detmers had a 48:6 K:BB in 22 innings for Louisville before the cancellations and could be a poor man's Tom Glavine.

Cade Cavalli, SP, WAS – He could either be the best pitcher in this draft despite dropping to the 22nd pick or he could see prior back and arm issues catch up to him. He's only been a full-time pitcher for two years, but the upside is quite high, and he posted a 37:5 K:BB in 23.2 innings for Oklahoma. The competing Nationals could use him in some role this year, even as a No. 5 starter later in the year if the Joe Ross/Austin Voth combination doesn't work out.

Garrett Mitchell, OF, MIL – Position players debuting in their draft years is exceedingly rare, but Mitchell could get there quickly. The No. 20 pick, Mitchell possesses grade 70 speed and has plus defense and a plus arm in center. Those tools alone should ensure an MLB debut at some point, and though he's yet to exhibit a lot of power, he puts the bat on that ball consistently, and at 6'3", the tools are there for plus power. As at least a speed/defense guy, he could get a look with the expanded rosters and push for outfield at-bats with the expanded DH going to someone like Ryan Braun and/or Avisail Garcia.