Mound Musings: Checking the NL Bullpens

Last week we took a look at some potential end game shake-ups in the American League, and this week we'll do the same for the National League. I've always enjoyed looking at bullpens and the pitchers who toil there throughout the season. For one thing, if you can stay one step ahead of the other owners in your league, bullpen analysis can return a very nice dividend for your research, if you can predict the new roles in those bullpens as they evolve – and perhaps more than ever before, they are evolving.

Bullpens in the age of specialization

Probably the biggest challenge is identifying roles within a bullpen. In many cases different pitchers are asked to fill fairly specific roles based on their skillsets. This helps identify the most likely candidates to gather saves should an opportunity arise. The most recognizable are lefty or righty specialists, often facing just a batter or two of the same hand. In many cases, these won't be top candidates to close since the ninth inning could include hitters of the opposite hand, therefore creating a volatile scenario. Closers typically prefer to start an inning with no baserunners to deal with, while some relievers are groundball specialists and frequently enter games in the middle of an inning with the opposing team threatening. Sinkerballers, by trade, are less likely to have dominating stuff, and while a double play could be huge in the mid to late innings, they are also unlikely to fill the closer's role long term. Closers almost always (wherever possible) have high strikeout rates, relatively good command, and they normally have two other characteristics that can be more difficult to define. They need to be comfortable pitching at least two or three days in a row (whenever a save chance arises), and a huge factor, they must be able to, overnight, forget a bad outing. Every pitcher, even the best, have bad days, and to succeed, a closer has to be ready mentally to compete tomorrow. That's just a brief overview of identifying future closers, but let's take a look at some closer assignments in the NL and see where they may be headed:

Here are some NL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Atlanta Braves – This pen is intriguing to say the least, and the final plan is probably not in place just yet. Incumbent closer Arodys Vizcaino underwent shoulder surgery and is out for the year. His presumed replacement, lefty A.J. Minter, was an immediate disaster, and has since been dispatched to Triple-A Gwinnett to find himself (and hopefully the strike zone). Next in line has been Luke Jackson who has fared reasonably well, but he doesn't really profile as a closer. So, Jackson is the guy until further notice, unless the team goes shopping (certainly a very real possibility with the Braves being competitive for a playoff spot) or they decide to try another internal option. Atlanta is a pitching-rich organization. Most of that young talent is being groomed to start, but a couple of their young arms, Touki Toussaint and in some respects Max Fried, have the stuff that closers are made of. Fried has enjoyed success in the rotation, but I still believe his future could be in the bullpen. Toussaint has had mixed results with the big team and is currently still seen as a possible starter, but many (including myself) think he could be a monster as a late-inning reliever. There have been no indications that the Braves will go that direction, but stay tuned.
• San Francisco Giants – This bullpen actually looks fairly set right now, but things may change dramatically as the trade deadline approaches. Will Smith has performed very well in the ninth inning – so well that he is very likely to be the target in trade talks as the Giants continue their rebuild. They have other quality relievers in Tony Watson, Reyes Moronta and Sam Dyson to handle the set-up innings. Any of them could go. The only question mark is what role former closer and current primary set-up man Mark Melancon will fill when the dust settles. Melancon has a history of success in the closer's gig, but he has an equally prominent history of injuries, and perhaps more importantly, he has a contract that could make it more difficult to trade him. Assuming Smith is dealt and Melancon stays, he could be the closer, which would increase his value. If both go, Moronta could be next in line, although Dyson has some closing experience and might be the choice for saves even though the groundball specialist is not an ideal endgamer. I will mention one other guy to watch. Rule 5 pick Travis Bergen has a lot of upside. I love a lot of what I've seen. I don't think he's a closer candidate, at least not yet, but he could work his way up.
• Philadelphia Phillies – It's rare that I throw my hands up and admit I can't even attempt to predict what will happen next in any given bullpen, but I'm close with this one. Today — emphasis on today — Hector Neris is probably the Phillies' primary closer, but that doesn't mean he will get all or even most of the save chances. The Phillies are currently working with what certainly appears to be a committee. Several different relievers have recorded saves recently. And, in my mind, one of those guys stands out. Seranthony Dominguez still has closer written all over him, but he has struggled with the undefined bullpen roles. That's tough for many seasoned veterans to deal with. Initially, it was presumed that David Robertson could step into the closer's role, but elbow issues have sidelined him until probably late June or even later. Pat Neshek also gets an occasional save opportunity, but he's really a righty specialist, meaning the expected ninth-inning hitters impact his deployment. Victor Arano, currently out with a sore elbow, could eventually get into the mix, too. For the present, Neris will probably log a few more saves than the others, but don't take that to the bank. If consistency and predictability are your thing, I'd look elsewhere.
• Milwaukee Brewers – Bullpens are a lot like dominoes. If you knock one over, especially a key domino, the whole pile can end up in disarray. Such is the case in Milwaukee since Corey Knebel underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2019 season. The Brewers actually still have one of the best closers in the game in Josh Hader, but his role was meant to be as a "super" reliever who could enter the game at any time in a critical situation. Last year, he was deployed in a combination of both roles for a while, and he wore down later in the season. The Brewers can't afford that to happen, but it understandably has proven difficult to restrict his usage to the ninth inning. The decision will probably need to be made fairly soon. The Brewers are serious playoff contenders. They have been linked to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel several times, but nothing has transpired as of yet. Internal options include Jeremy Jeffress who is still working his way into shape following a spring shoulder injury. He's the best bet to take over as the primary closer once he is deemed full strength (he's probably close now). They could potentially look at Corbin Burnes, but his future is still in the rotation, or Junior Guerra, although he would be a huge step backward.
• Miami Marlins – The Marlins bullpen, much like the rest of the team, is in full blown rebuild mode. That said, they currently employ a 36-year-old closer in Sergio Romo, but if they can find a taker, he will likely depart before the season ends. He does have 115 career saves, but a contender is unlikely to look at him as a primary ninth-inning guy. Drew Steckenrider was expected to be the heir apparent, and given the lack of viable alternatives he may still be, but it will be at least a couple of months before we know, since he's currently on the injured list with an elbow injury. And, while he has shown brief flashes of ability, he has provided even longer stretches of wild inconsistency. The question is, who else is in the organization to fill the bill. Lefty Adam Conley has been discussed, but even the Marlins can do better. Nick Anderson, surprisingly, turned some heads earlier this season and he could receive some consideration, but I have my doubts about his prospects for long-term success. So, the one arm I really like is Tayron Guerrero, but while he can be nearly unhittable at times, the safest place to stand when facing him is usually on home plate. Maybe Steckenrider will come back strong, or maybe Guerrero will discover the fountain of control, but it may not matter too much as ninth-inning leads to protect could be rare.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Carlos Rodon underwent Tommy John surgery this week, taking him off the menu until late next season. But, the future is on the horizon, as he could return to a very exciting White Sox team with talented position players and a potentially dominant rotation featuring Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease.
• Not an elite pitching prospect but certainly worth a look, Shaun Anderson was promoted by the Giants earlier this week. He gave a reasonably good accounting of himself for his first MLB outing, and the Giants, who figure to be sellers at the trade deadline, need to assess their top young arm's readiness.
• Keeping with the theme of new faces arriving to the big leagues, one of the better pitching prospects to make his debut so far is the Astros' Corbin Martin. He pitched effectively into the sixth inning, logging nine strikeouts as Houston works to refine their rotation. With that team, he could be a nice add in many leagues.
• The Phillies got a good start out of Cole Irvin, and he'll get another turn later this week but he's unlikely to be a fantasy asset. Irvin has just average stuff at best and may head back to Triple-A when Vince Velasquez returns from the injured list. He looks like a candidate to bounce back and forth as a fill-in starter.
• I watched a couple innings of the Boston game against the Rockies the other night, just checking in on Chris Sale. Colorado is a pretty good hitting team (that is making more and more of a difference when evaluating a pitcher) and they didn't have an answer for Sale. Seven innings and 17 strikeouts. Mismatch.
• Yes, it's refreshing to see some of the better pitchers in baseball apparently shaking off the early season funk. Not the least of which is Noah Syndergaard, who was beginning to worry me. Thor still has issues with men on base, but, when he's on his game, he typically just keeps the sacks empty.

Endgame Odyssey:

The teams in the AL that are falling out of playoff contention will also likely be fielding calls regarding their more experienced relievers. The White Sox have both Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera who could change uniforms. If that happens, you might want to keep an eye on Aaron Bummer, who is quietly earning a more prominent role in their bullpen. I'd be very surprised if Shane Greene is still in Detroit when the dust settles. That should finally open the door for Joe Jimenez, but I'm just not totally convinced he will be up to the job. Baltimore doesn't have much pitching that would appeal to playoff contenders, but Mychal Givens has a big arm that could add depth to another team's bullpen. Whether he would close is another question and would depend heavily on where he landed. The Twins have impressed, so they may be buyers rather than sellers. They are currently employing a true committee approach, and its working with Blake Parker and Taylor Rogers sharing the save chances. I'm still not convinced Parker is well suited to a traditional closer's gig, but the usage with Rogers limits his exposure.