Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – American League

Earlier this season, we took a look at a few teams struggling to find answers in the bullpen. As the year has progressed, it has become painfully obvious to MLB and fantasy teams that a reliable bullpen, front to back, is critical to success. As many starting pitchers were kept at the trade deadline, the scramble was on for help in the endgame – an "endgame" that has been happening earlier and earlier.

Bullpen role shifts result from both additions and subtractions

There were more additions in the National League, but a few subtractions in the American League are also contributing to role shifts with fantasy implications. Part of it is likely the apparent security felt by Houston and the Yankees. Only the AL Central title looks like it could come down to the wire. The Twins made minor adjustments, while the surging Indians held onto their ace closer, Brad Hand. This has been a wild year in both rotations and bullpens, but it's probably not settled yet. There are still shaky situations with more potential adjustments to come. Let's take a look at some bullpen assignments in the AL and see how they stack up for a postseason push:

Here are some AL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Tampa Bay Rays – No one accuses the Rays of being too traditional. They do things differently, and it usually works. Despite extended absences from aces Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, they remain playoff contenders, and much of the credit goes to a mix and match bullpen. Openers, primary pitchers and multiple roles are all part of their game, but I think the endgame could eventually be the domain of a newcomer. Jose Alvarado was the primary closer before hitting the injured list (he just returned). He shared the gig with Diego Castillo, but he has been deployed in various situations of late. Emilio Pagan has stepped in and done an admirable job, but I have a hunch we haven't read the last chapter of this book. The Rays quietly acquired a couple arms from Miami at the deadline, and both could very possibly flourish in their new organization. Don't be surprised if righty Nick Anderson sees increasingly more high-leverage innings with an eye toward collecting save chances before too long. Pagan has never really profiled as a closer, but Anderson does.
• Detroit Tigers – Being the heir apparent to the closer's gig might be an actual bullpen role in Detroit. Remember Bruce Rondon? He wore the label for years, but things never panned out, and he's currently looking for work. Shane Greene was locked in as their closer for a couple years, but he's in Atlanta now, opening the door for the most recent heir apparent, Joe Jimenez. He has logged two saves since Greene was dealt; the jury is still out regarding his potential for long-term success. Jimenez has reasonably good stuff, so he accumulates a fair amount of strikeouts, but he is a flyball pitcher with inconsistent command which has led to very high homerun rate. And, when presented with occasional save chances in the past, he hasn't always risen to the occasion. Time will tell, but he should get the opportunity to prove himself, as there really is no heir apparent today. If Jimenez falters, Buck Farmer could get a look, but no one on the Tigers' roster fits the profile, so open auditions would likely be the result.
• Minnesota Twins– The Twins are embroiled in one of the best divisional races in baseball this season as the they battle the Indians for the top spot in the AL Central. They didn't make what would be considered major moves at the deadline, but they did add a couple experienced relievers that should give them more depth and flexibility. Their best reliever, southpaw Taylor Rogers, serves as their primary closer, and he's reasonably solid in filling that role, but they also now have veterans Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Romo is serving as Rogers' main backup and offers a right-handed option to close if Rogers needs a day off or the matchups dictate an alternative approach, and he provides consistently solid innings as a set-up guy. Dyson also has late-inning experience, even serving as a fill-in closer at times during his career, but his true value is as a seventh- or eighth-inning rally killer. An extreme groundball pitcher, he excels at coaxing a double play grounder when the opposition threatens with men on base. Well played by the Twins. They bolstered their bullpen with pitchers well-suited to the roles they needed most. Trevor May, and perhaps Ryne Harper, could also figure into the higher-leverage innings mix, but I expect the team to stick to their current plan as long as everyone stays healthy.
• Boston Red Sox – What a mess. This is like an 80-piece orchestra with every instrument badly out of tune. They tried Ryan Brasier. He has been banished to the minors. They tried Matt Barnes. He pitches any inning from the first to the last, but I think the undefined role hurts him. They named Nathan Eovaldi their primary closer. That was short-lived. Marcus Walden, Brandon Workman and, most recently, Andrew Cashner, who just lost his rotation spot, have all taken a turn as the team's ninth-inning answer. Unfortunately, to this point, all the answers have been wrong. Workman is the closer-of-the-week this week, but his tenure in the role is iffy at best. The Red Sox' explosive offense does provide chances for vultured wins (Workman has nine) and save opportunities, but owning any of these guys is a drain on your peripherals. Maybe Workman holds onto the job, maybe they give Cashner a shot, or maybe they find a couple guys to get the game to the ninth inning, allowing them to re-install Barnes to that gig full time. My guess is the assignments will continue to be perpetually in flux, making this a bullpen to avoid unless you are desperate for saves.
• Seattle Mariners – I saved the best (worst?) for last. The Mariners shipped primary endgamers Roenis Elias and Hunter Strickland to the Nationals at the deadline leaving their bullpen with literally no one who profiles as a closer. Not surprisingly, Anthony Bass, a journeyman reliever with at least modest skills appears to be the guy, but he's not the long-term answer. They actually have a pitcher with closing experience, Arodys Vizcaino, but he had shoulder surgery earlier this season and is out until 2020. So is there anybody out there to give Bass some competition? Probably not right now, unless Bass experiences a complete meltdown. Cory Gearrin gets an occasional mention, but he lacks consistency, and another journeyman, Matt Magill, appears to be surfacing as the primary set-up man, but my sleeper – a very deep sleeper – is Dan Altavilla. He has been in and out with injuries, and often has trouble finding the strikezone, but if he could develop a rhythm, he has some pretty dynamic stuff. Currently on a rehab assignment, working his way back from a forearm strain, he would need an extended stretch of effectiveness to work his way into a late-inning role, but I'm keeping a casual eye on him.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Jake Arrieta has been trying to pitch through elbow issues in Philadelphia, but he hasn't had a quality start since mid-June, and I have to think they may be questioning the decision to let him pitch. It now looks like it's time to call it a season and undergo surgery to remove the troublesome bone spurs.
• The Boston experiment of having Nathan Eovaldi serve as their closer appears to be ending. He struggled pitching in relief, and with the rotation banged up and underperforming, he may return to a starting role. He will be more of an "opener" as he builds up his arm strength. This could eventually increase his value.
• Cincinnati's Alex Wood might be gradually rounding into game shape. After missing the first four months of the season with back woes, he did display improving command of his repertoire in his most recent start. He probably won't be asked to pitch deep into games, but he is pretty competent when healthy.
• Matthew Boyd has served up seven home runs over his last two starts (eight innings). Homers have been an ongoing problem for him, but he is really struggling with his command right now. His release point still comes and goes, making him a very risky play until he can lock it back in long term.
• I tried and tried to acquire Jack Flaherty when things weren't going so well earlier this year, but I couldn't find anyone ready to give up on him. He locked in with his normal excellent command and now has allowed a total of just four earned runs over his last seven starts (45 innings). He's the real deal.
• In the category of smoke and mirrors – more mirrors than smoke – Ivan Nova has also been dealing for the White Sox of late. He too has enjoyed a stretch of consistent command of the strike zone, but he doesn't miss enough bats to make me confident in him providing long term fantasy value. Sell high if you can.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Blue Jays didn't trade Ken Giles, mostly because some elbow inflammation probably scared teams away, so he is still the closer in Toronto. However, the balky elbow is still giving him problems, making Derek Law potentially fantasy relevant if Giles can't go on any given day. Kenley Jansen has long been one of the best closers in baseball, but his once unhittable cutter isn't quite what it once was. I don't think his job is in jeopardy, but the Dodgers may cut back on his workload to keep him fresh for the playoffs meaning Joe Kelly could see an occasional save chance. As much as the Mets need Edwin Diaz to close games, I think he is feeling the ever-present heat in New York City. Seth Lugo is the likely alternative, but that move could hurt as much as help. The Braves continued to suffer bullpen struggles despite the deadline acquisitions, but I really do expect things to calm down. Mark Melancon looked exceptionally sharp converting his first save for the team. Shawn Kelley is back from the injured list in Texas, but he was roughed up in his most recent outing. That likely solidifies Jose Leclerc's standing as their closer as long as he remains effective.