Mound Musings: AL East Draft Day Targets

Last week we looked at the NL East, and for the next five weeks, I'll continue to throw out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. Let's get to it and look at the:

American League East

Baltimore Orioles – The O's are a team who many would classify as "rebuilding," but looking at their mound corps, I'd say they need some shiny new Legos if they want to move in the right direction. I'll admit, I am struggling to find positives to mention. Most owners will list Dylan Bundy as the top pitcher on the staff, and he does have the ability to pitch effectively at times, but I expect him to again be somewhat overvalued on draft day, and to again frustrate owners with wild inconsistency. If I was forced to own a Baltimore starter, it would probably be Alex Cobb. Returning to full health last year, he did improve as the season progressed. Last year, they signed Andrew Cashner, and the scary thing is, he is pretty solidly entrenched as their No. 3. It's possible he'll provide some decent innings, but I'm not very optimistic. The O's also probably hope Nathan Karns will contribute after missing most of the last two seasons. Don't count on it. Beyond that, David Hess, Luis Ortiz, Josh Rogers, Jimmy Yacabonis and Yefry Ramirez all have two things in common. First, they each will likely see time in the rotation this year, and second, none of them should be pitching for a fantasy team. The O's do have one blue-chip pitching prospect in DL Hall, but he's probably at least a couple years away, so there's no hurry on him.

With that rotation, the bullpen figures to get a lot of work, and I suppose that's a positive. They aren't horrible on the whole. They won't lose 162 games, so there could be an occasional save chance. Mychal Givens will likely see the lion's share, and he's reasonably competent, albeit with inconsistent command and some vulnerability to lefties. I also like southpaw Paul Fry a little bit, so he might be a sleeper if you're desperate. My draft day advice? Refill the coffee cup when an O's pitcher comes up.

Recapping the Orioles:

The arm to own: Alex Cobb
He's not for me: Dylan Bundy, but they all qualify
Best of the bullpen: Mychal Givens or maybe Paul Fry

Boston Red Sox – The Boston staff enjoys a huge advantage while competing in the traditionally hard-hitting AL East. They don't have to face their own lineup, and some of the other teams aren't as scary as they once were. Individually, there are very few pitchers I would prefer owning over Chris Sale. I have loved the guy since he arrived in the majors, and despite shuddering on virtually every pitch because of his violent pitching motion, I readily confess to a serious man-crush. Unfortunately, I have rarely owned him, simply because he always carries a premium price tag, and I'm always shopping for value buys. He typically justifies that price tag, but you'll have to pay to own him. Conversely, I'm not as bullish on David Price. Health issues, most notably recurring elbow soreness, have hampered his performance, but he continues to command near top-tier draft cash in many leagues. I have always liked Rick Porcello, even back in his days with Detroit. There were always reasons to be optimistic. Then he tosses an incredible 2016 season. I didn't think he would experience the disaster that was 2017, but some regression was inevitable. Not surprisingly, 2018 fell in between the two. I expect something similar. Nathan Eovaldi draws the four spot, and I think he's a guy I might pursue. He's had a pair of Tommy John surgeries, but this season is the point on the timeline when many pitchers show their full potential. Eduardo Rodriguez should get the nod for the fifth starter spot, but I typically see him as being somewhat overvalued, while Hector Velazquez functions as a swingman.

I really expect this bullpen to change before Opening Day. Right now, I would likely list Matt Barnes as the lukewarm favorite for saves, with 31-year-old, minor league journeyman Ryan Brasier as the next guy up. Tyler Thornburg could also be a consideration. I actually think Barnes has the tools to be an adequate closer, but "adequate" is probably not the description the Red Sox are looking for. A solid starting rotation, and a lineup loaded with stars likely demands adding a proven, high-profile closer. Stay tuned.

Recapping the Red Sox:

The arm to own: Chris Sale, but for value, Nathan Eovaldi
He's not for me: Eduardo Rodriguez
Best of the bullpen: Matt Barnes today, but stay tuned

New York Yankees – The Yankees enter the season with a potent offense, and a pitching staff ready to take full advantage. Luis Severino has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation starter, but his consistency will come at a price on draft day, and I think there could be better values to be found. James Paxton comes over from Seattle, but he has yet to solidify his position as a top-of-the-rotation starter because of a long list of injuries. That said, I love what I see when he's healthy and in synch, and he's likely a good target, I believe he could potentially push Severino for the top spot. Yankee Stadium is a hitter's heaven, and nobody knows that better than Masahiro Tanaka, He struggles to keep the ball in the yard, and it's frustrating to watch. Great pitch after great pitch, then he misses over the plate and bang. That makes him a mid-rotation option, but don't over pay. Lefties typically fare better here, so J.A. Happ is probably a better choice. I especially like his ability to pitch competitively and would like him even better if he kept the pitch counts down. The ageless CC Sabathia will take the final spot, but I'm not expecting much fantasy production. I really think we'll see more five-inning stints and skips when the schedule allows. He's a placeholder until Jordan Montgomery returns around mid-season, but even then, the team will closely monitor his workload. The candidates for spot starts include Jonathan Loaisiga and possibly Luis Cessa, but they need a clear path to innings and are of limited fantasy value.

The Yankees have one of the most talented and deepest bullpens in baseball. Smoke-thrower, Aroldis Chapman will garner the majority of the saves, but his health is an ongoing concern these days. If he can't answer the bell, set-up men Dellin Betances and/or lefty Zach Britton would likely share endgame duties. But, there is so much depth. They also have Adam Ottavino with at least some closing experience, plus the very capable and effective Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle and a guy who caught my eye a couple years ago, Jonathan Holder, but there is only so much fantasy-relevant work to go around. I think Britton might be a useful insurance policy for Chapman. He was a top-tier closer in Baltimore not all that long ago.

Recapping the Yankees:

The arm to own: James Paxton
He's not for me: CC Sabathia
Best of the bullpen: Aroldis Chapman

Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays have long been an organization known for developing young pitchers, most recently, Blake Snell. Here is last season's Musings' outlook: "He's got all the tools, and I think he's going to realize that soon. His struggles at the MLB level last year might create a value play this spring." Okay, I expected a breakout, but wow! Don't look now, but Tyler Glasnow could be following a similar path. They also have comparable ceilings, so he's a very attractive target for draft day 2019. The Rays also added veteran Charlie Morton, who didn't realize his best stuff until a couple years ago, but has been outstanding of late. That's a very competent top three. Unfortunately, things drop off from there. Brent Honeywell offers some fantasy upside and will eventually claim a spot, but it might be June or July at best following Tommy John surgery last spring. I like Anthony Banda, but he had TJ surgery last June and won't be back until 2020. Jacob Faria is next up but he isn't really a fantasy asset in my eyes. Others under consideration for a starting job – actually probably more of an "openers" spot – include Ryan Yarbrough, Jalen Beeks and Yonny Chirinos, but there's no one in that group I would recommend pursuing. Dynasty owners will want to monitor the progress of P/DH Brendan McKay, but he's at least a year or two away.

This bullpen is a "best guess" scenario with regard to their their closer. Jose Alvarado, the only viable lefty, is probably the lukewarm favorite to lead the team in saves, but I see a mix of ninth-inning pitchers not unlike the mix of potential first-inning alternatives following the top three in the rotation. Matchups could dictate usage with top set-up guy Chaz Roe, Emilio Pagan and Diego Castillo leading contenders to end games. Any of these could claim the gig on a full time basis, but I'm doubtful.

Recapping the Rays:

The arm to own: Tyler Glasnow
He's not for me: Jacob Faria
Best of the bullpen: None of the above

Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays' starting staff is like a game show along the lines of Jeopardy. Please remember to give your answer in the form of a question. These pitchers are considerable health risks. These veterans are fringy talents hoping a change of scenery will boost their careers. And, here we have some kids with somewhat undefined ceilings. I'll start with, who are Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez? Stroman is a competitor who always makes me nervous (like all extreme groundball pitchers). He needs tight defense behind him, and there will be occasional big innings, but when healthy (there's the trouble), the double plays he generates help a lot in curtailing opponent's scoring. Sanchez suffers with blister problems and various hand ailments they haven't been able to fix. Too risky for me. Next on the board, who are Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard? I've never been a Shoemaker fan, and I don't see this helping. I'm still passing on him. And, Richard, with his rather ordinary stuff, moves from a pitcher's paradise, to a hitter's heaven. Maybe in very deep leagues, but I'd like to do better. Finally, who are Ryan Borucki and Sean Reid-Foley? They are a pair of good, but probably not great, prospects who will likely see starting assignments this season. Borucki caught my eye last year, and he could be a useful piece at the back of your rotation, or as a streamer. Give him a shot if he's around late. Reid-Foley was a solid prospect, then stumbled, before seemingly getting it back together. I still see him as a wildcard. I'll toss one more name into the mix for dynasty players. Nate Pearson is unlikely to land in Toronto this year, but when he does, you want to own him.

Things appear fairly settled in the Toronto bullpen heading into the season. Despite some shaky outings that cost him the closer's job in Houston, Ken Giles moved north of the border and eventually found his way back to the ninth inning, Most of his flameouts came in nonsave situations – he was actually a perfect 26-for-26 in save opportunities – and there isn't much competition for the gig this season. Just be prepared for a wild ride. Ryan Tepera didn't fare well when tried as the closer, but he was a solid set-up guy and he'll again fill that role. If Giles does struggle too much, my guess would be they might ask John Axford to step up. At least he has some closing experience.

Recapping the Blue Jays:

The arm to own: Ryan Borucki, but only at a price
He's not for me: Matt Shoemaker
Best of the bullpen: Ken Giles

Next week we'll look at the NL Central.