This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we looked at the AL Central, and for the next three weeks, I'll continue to toss out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2024 season. We're passing halfway home, as we look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will enter 2024 with a deeper pitching staff than they fielded in 2023, and they benefit from pitching in front of one of the better defenses in baseball. I liked Justin Steele, and he really broke out last year. Look for more in '24. They added Shota Imanaga, who could end up being a co-No. 1 although I am not as familiar with him as I am with other imports. I think Jameson Taillon as their No. 3 should be a solid performer, but Kyle Hendricks, a true groundball specialist, should love the Cubs' "up the middle" defense made up of Nico Hoerner at 2B, and Dansby Swanson at SS, but soft-tossers like him can be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. The first four aren't bad, but I think my biggest concern would again be the last couple rotation slots. I think Jordan Wicks is the likely fifth starter (not horrible, but he needs to be more consistent), while the alternatives will be Drew Smyly, Javier Assad,
Last week we looked at the AL Central, and for the next three weeks, I'll continue to toss out some names for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2024 season. We're passing halfway home, as we look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – The Cubs will enter 2024 with a deeper pitching staff than they fielded in 2023, and they benefit from pitching in front of one of the better defenses in baseball. I liked Justin Steele, and he really broke out last year. Look for more in '24. They added Shota Imanaga, who could end up being a co-No. 1 although I am not as familiar with him as I am with other imports. I think Jameson Taillon as their No. 3 should be a solid performer, but Kyle Hendricks, a true groundball specialist, should love the Cubs' "up the middle" defense made up of Nico Hoerner at 2B, and Dansby Swanson at SS, but soft-tossers like him can be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes or off days. The first four aren't bad, but I think my biggest concern would again be the last couple rotation slots. I think Jordan Wicks is the likely fifth starter (not horrible, but he needs to be more consistent), while the alternatives will be Drew Smyly, Javier Assad, and/or Hayden Wesneski – none of whom generate much optimism. Their top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, has potential upside, but he has yet to throw a pitch above Double-A ball.
The bullpen is again an area of concern in my eyes. The Cubs have been collecting relievers, presumably looking for both late-inning help, and a closer. They might believe Adbert Alzolay is the answer in the ninth, but I'm not totally convinced. They have a lot of warm bodies, but none jumps out at me as a true end-gamer, After Alzolay Julian Merryweather probably fits best. Trouble is, he didn't really look much like a closer. So, who's in the late-inning competition? Good question. They brought in Hector Neris who could be a possibility, but he has to learn to stay focused. Maybe Mark Leiter, who did some closing for the Cubs, but he's better suited for a set-up role. Maybe they'll roll the dice with a newcomer like Yency Almonte or Keegan Thompson. These guys all have some minor upside but should be better in set-up roles.
Recapping the Cubs:
The arm to own: Taillon could be a top-of-the rotation guy if he stays healthy.
He'll likely be overpriced: I again expect some regression from Hendricks.
Best of the bullpen: Alzolay looks like the guy, but I question his long-term success.
Cincinnati Reds – The Reds would like to believe the future is today, but their best kid pitchers are learning on the job, and the depth just isn't there. Big Hunter Greene deservedly gets a lot of ink. He has one of the biggest arms in baseball and clearly has considerable potential, so while command of his secondary pitches can be spotty and his fastball can be a bit straight, his chances of eventually being a true top of the rotation starter are bright. Interestingly, I actually like Nick Lodolo just about as much. He has a very good arm, too, albeit not like Greene, and he is ahead of Greene in terms of development. He has a leg injury but should be healthy in April. I also like newcomer Frankie Montas. He's my pick to take a step forward. The rest of the rotation is filled with pitchers who display both positives and negatives, but I think the scales tip to the negative side. Cincinnati is going to war with a back of the rotation including Graham Ashcraft who is mediocre, Andrew Abbott who is perhaps in a holding pattern in his development, and one of Nick Martinez, Brandon Williamson, or Connor Phillips, who are all looking for a rotation spot. Pennants (and Roto titles) are made of better.
The Reds' bullpen does have a top-shelf arm in closer Alexis Diaz (Edwin's younger brother) who jumped up a couple tiers last summer. The problem is still a lack of reliable depth in the bullpen, leaving things unsettled behind Diaz entering 2024. They brought in veteran Emilio Pagan who should help. Lucas Sims is probably the guy I like best on this staff after Diaz, and he could be pitching in the eighth inning this year. However, he is volatile at times. They have Buck Farmer, who, like Sims, has good days and bad days. Add to the mix Tony Santillan, Ian Gibaut, Brent Suter and perhaps Tejay Antone. They all occasionally show flashes, but unfortunately it's only occasionally.
Recapping the Reds:
The arm to own: Lodolo could be a nice price on draft day. He's on his way up.
He'll likely be overpriced: Ashcraft got some attention, but I still don't see it.
Best of the bullpen: I like Diaz a lot. He's for real, but throwing more strikes would help.
Milwaukee Brewers – Take an overwhelming rotation led by aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, but subtract those two (Burnes is in Baltimore and Woodruff is hurt) and what's left? Next up is Freddy Peralta. He has pitched fairly well but may be miscast as the "ace" of the staff. He'd fit a lot better as a three in my eyes. Wade Miley and Aaron Ashby look to be next in line, but they profile as fifth starter types. The team does have DL Hall who came over in the Burnes trade, and while he is unproven, he has the most upside on the staff after Peralta. The rotation fillers look like Colin Rea or Joe Ross who are both fringy at best, and they also added Jakob Junis who has flashed a little upside in the past but is really best-suited to be a swingman/spot starter Maybe their top pitching prospect, Jacob Misiorowski, will develop quickly. They need someone to step up or it could be a long year.
Two names come to mind when discussing the Brewers' bullpen. Southpaw Josh Hader was a superman for years, but he is now in Houston, leaving the ninth-inning duties to Devin Williams, who has shown he has all the closer tools. He is a solid end-gamer, but they need to get games to him. Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, Hoby Milner and Trevor Megill will again probably share earlier-inning set-up duties. They are adequate.
Recapping the Brewers:
The arm to own: Peralta is capable, but pretty fragile so include a Plan B.
He'll likely be overpriced: Just about everyone else, including graybeard Miley.
Best of the bullpen: Williams is a front-liner, but a weak rotation hurts his value.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates have to hope young guys like Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller can eventually perform consistently more often if they want to say they have a top-of-the-rotation arm. Keller has No. 1 stuff and impressive minor league credentials, but his performance with the big club has been shaky due to frequent lapses in command. I'm still inclined to give him time to get it all together, but until he does, he's risky. Their No. 2 and No. 3 are likely to be Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. They aren't aces but they can still pitch moderately well at times (when healthy). Now we delve into very fringy guys like Luis Ortiz (slight edge) and Contreras, who likely will be No. 4 and No. 5 on this staff. They offer little value in any but the deepest leagues right now, but both could step it up. And it gets worse. The depth of the rotation comprises guys like Bailey Falter swingman Chase Anderson and eventually JT Brubaker, none of whom excite me. Youngster Quinn Priester is also a possibility. He hints at competence at times, so keep tabs on him. And, don't forget, the Pirates own the best pitching prospect in baseball. You want to own Paul Skenes, too.
The Pirates' bullpen resembles the starting rotation in many ways – nobody really stands out except closer David Bednar. I'm a little surprised he is still there, and he will again be first in line for saves. They also have a so-so but certainly unspectacular support group including old timer lefty Aroldis Chapman, who is a shadow of his former self but will be counted on to set-up Bednar. Colin Holderman (appropriate name), another lefty, Ryan Borucki, Dauri Moreta (if his elbow is okay) and a possible sleeper in Brent Honeywell should see plenty of work behind that rotation. A final consideration would be a serious dark horse. Tahnaj Thomas caught my eye a couple years ago. He has a lively high 90s fastball and a good slider. The team was trying to develop him as a starter, but he never found a reliable off-speed pitch so he's in the pen now.
Recapping the Pirates:
The arm to own: Keller has some upside, but the guy I have to roster is Skenes.
He'll likely be overpriced: Brubaker has a following, but he's just too risky for me.
Best of the bullpen: Bednar is a good one when healthy, assuming he isn't dealt.
St. Louis Cardinals – We'll wrap up our analysis of the NL Central with a look at my narrow pick to win the division. It seems strange talking St. Louis pitching without the now retired Adam Wainright leading the way. Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery are also gone. That is a lot to lose. New staff leader Sonny Gray has raw stuff that is already dominating, and I look for a big year from him. I think most likely No. 2 will be Miles Mikolas. A very big bounce-back from him is critical to solidify the rotation, and I think we'll see that. Next, let's check in on two capable, albeit graybeard, arms that were added to the staff. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are both 36 years old. They no longer have their raw tools, but they might be considered masters of the art – in both pitching and winning – and that is what the Cardinals are hoping for. The five spot should be the property of either Steven Matz, the versatile Zack Thompson or eventually the young Matthew Liberatore. I actually like Liberatore best long term, as Matz struggles to stay healthy, and Thompson is better suited to long relief.
I don't think the question is who will close for the Cardinals long term. I'm reasonably certain the gig belongs to Ryan Helsley, but if anything happens to him, who takes the reins? The list of options is pretty long, and I think pretty capable. Top of the list are newcomer Andrew Kittredge and holdover Giovanny Gallegos. They will share primary set-up duties, and there's also a competent array of support arms including JoJo Romero, Andre Pallante, Wilking Rodriguez, Keynan Middleton, along with swingman Zach Thompson. This is a very deep and potentially talented bullpen.
Recapping the Cardinals:
The arm to own: I'm betting on a big come-back year from Mikolas.
He'll likely be overpriced: I'm avoiding Lynn, who may be past his prime.
Best of the bullpen: Helsley looks like he'll be the closer long term.
Next week we'll look at the AL East.
