MLB Picks: MLB Wild Card Betting Preview

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Playoffs: MLB Wild Card Best Bets

Last year saw the introduction of MLB's new, 12-team playoff format. The inaugural three-game wild-card round served as a reminder of how short a three-game series is in baseball, as the lower seed won three of the four matchups. Three of the series were decided in just two games, though one of those two-game series lasted 24 innings, with the Guardians beating the Rays 1-0 in the 15th frame to sweep the series and become the only home team to win its pairing.

For those looking to add a bit of extra fun to this year's tournament, I'll be previewing each round of the playoffs, offering my top picks for each series. Below, you'll find my best bets as well as projected starters and a brief statistical overview of each series, showing the overall rank of each team's lineup, rotation and bullpen. We'll use park-adjusted stats for those rankings, going by team wRC+ for hitters and ERA- for pitchers. You can also read my World Series picks article, which looks at three teams to consider backing as postseason play begins.

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MLB Wild Card Round Series Odds

• Rangers +130 at Rays -155 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Blue Jays -105 at Twins -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Diamondbacks +150 at Brewers -180 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Marlins +160 at Phillies -190 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Texas Rangers (90-72) at Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

LHP Jordan Montgomery (3.19 ERA, 4.08 SIERA) vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow (3.53 ERA, 3.08 SIERA)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 4.18 SIERA) vs. RHP Zach Eflin (3.08 ERA, 3.30 SIERA)

LHP Andrew Heaney (4.15 ERA, 4.40 SIERA) vs. RHP Aaron Civale (3.46 ERA, 4.15 SIERA)

Series Preview

This matchup features two teams who rank third and fourth in run differential, meaning it's arguably the sort of higher-quality pairing as you'd expect to find in a typical ALCS, not a wild-card round. The trajectory of both team's seasons hasn't been what either would want, however, and their current iterations look much more like they belong in this round. After two winters full of big spending, Texas burst out of the gate, carrying a 40-20 record (a 108-win pace) through June 6, but they've gone just 50-52 since then. Injuries have hit their rotation hard, as they'll be without Jacob deGrom (Tommy John surgery), Max Scherzer (shoulder) and Jon Gray (forearm) for this series. The remaining collection of starters — which includes the names listed above as well as Dane Dunning (3.70 ERA, 4.52 SIERA) —  isn't awful but certainly isn't as good as the rotation's fourth-place ranking in ERA- suggests. The Texas lineup remains excellent, but this is now more of a one-dimensional team rather than the all-around powerhouse it looked to be in April and May.

The Rays, meanwhile, began season with a 13-game winning streak, and much of the talk was whether that was due to their schedule or whether they were emerging as the best team in the league. Like the Rangers, however, they were hit with several significant injuries to their rotation, with Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all undergoing elbow surgery. Tampa then suffered an additional unforeseen blow when Wander Franco's off-field allegations landed him on administrative leave. There's plenty of talent remaining in Tampa, though, with the lineup slipping merely to fourth in wRC+ since Franco's absence began in mid-August, and manager Kevin Cash has a proven ability to know who to deploy when on both sides of the ball (Game 7 of the 2020 World Series aside).

Rays vs. Rangers Series Pick

•  Rays in three, +250 (FanDuel)

I think the Rays are the better team, but their main advantage is in their bullpen, something which manifests much more over the course of a longer series than over a three-game sprint. That advantage is a significant one, though, so it's hard for me to take the Rangers even at significant plus money given that their only relievers who threw at least 35 innings while posting an ERA under 4.00 were Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc. Given how close these teams are in their respective lineups and rotations, the best-available odds for the Rays to win straight up (-155 at PointsBet) don't seem tempting enough, so trying to pinpoint the exact series score seems more profitable. A 2-0 Rays sweep (+190 at DraftKings) could make sense, but I'll go with the Rangers to slug their way to a win in one of the first two contests before Kevin Cash pushes all the right bullpen buttons to win the series in three games.

Toronto Blue Jays (89-73) at Minnesota Twins (87-75)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Kevin Gausman (3.16 ERA, 3.34 SIERA) vs. RHP Pablo Lopez (3.66 ERA, 3.37 SIERA)

RHP Jose Berrios (3.65 ERA, 4.08 SIERA) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 3.95 SIERA)

RHP Chris Bassitt (3.60 ERA, 4.25 SIERA) vs. RHP Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 3.44 SIERA)

Series Preview

These two teams may have the third- and fourth-worst records among this season's playoff field, but as the Key Stats table above indicates, both are balanced teams with plenty of talent in both the lineup and rotation. In Gausman and Gray, this series features the top two starters in the American league according to fWAR, while Lopez ranks fifth. Both rotations also contain a good amount of depth, though Joe Ryan's second-half swoon (6.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP since the break) adds a major question mark on the Minnesota side. Neither team is blessed with an elite bullpen, but while Twins closer Jhoan Duran (2.45 ERA) may be the most dominant reliever in this series, the Blue Jays have the advantage in depth, with Jordan Romano leading a quartet of relievers who posted an ERA of 3.29 or better in at least 50 innings.

On the offensive side, both teams fared rather similarly overall, which could count as a surprise. The Blue Jays may have expected a bit more from their talented group, but Bo Bichette was the team's only everyday player with a wRC+ north of 120, and his was only 125. Vladimir Guerrero (118), George Springer (104) and Alejandro Kirk (96) took notable steps back in that category. Of course, there's a positive spin on the same set of facts, which is that the Jays still ranked seventh in team wRC+ even despite those down seasons, which indicates the depth in their lineup and also suggests they could play like a top-five unit if the underachievers get hot in October. Minnesota's lineup, on the other hand, featured breakouts from rookies Royce Lewis (155 wRC+) and Edouard Julien (136), helping offset poor seasons from Byron Buxton (98) and Carlos Correa (96). The lineup skews left-handed, which could make Jays relievers Tim Mayza and Genesis Cabrera some of the most important players in this series, as well as southpaws Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu if either is used in a multi-inning bullpen role.

Blue Jays vs. Twins Series Pick

•  Blue Jays, +110 (FanDuel)

These two sides are effectively tied in the strength of their lineups and rotations, while the Blue Jays have the edge in the bullpen, so I struggle to see why the books all have the Twins as the slight favorites. Two advantages push this in Toronto's direction. First is the Twins' relative weakness against lefties, which means that timely deployment particularly of the potential starters-turned-relievers Kikuchi and Ryu could decide the series. The Jays' lineup can't be attacked in the same way. Second is the second-half performance of Ryan, which would seem to give Toronto a meaningful edge should the series go to three games. If you want to bet on the Twins at least ending their 18-game playoff losing streak, you could take Toronto in three (+290 at FanDuel) instead, but the Blue Jays' odds to win in any number of games are friendly enough to make that less interesting than it was for Tampa Bay above.

Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 4.28 SIERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (3.39 ERA, 4.02 SIERA)

RHP Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 3.67 SIERA) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (3.86 ERA, 3.45 SIERA)

RHP Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA) vs. LHP Wade Miley (3.14 ERA, 5.05 SIERA)

Series Preview

This is the only series which features two teams which missed last year's postseason, and judging by the table above, it doesn't exactly feature two of the stronger members of this year's playoff class. Anything can happen in the short series that make up the MLB postseason, however, and both teams possess specific strengths which could enable them to make a run. For Arizona, those strengths are contact and speed. Diamondbacks hitters finished with the league's fourth-best strikeout rate (20.4 percent) and stole the second-most bases (166), with presumptive NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll managing 54. A healthy amount of small-ball may be necessary to make a run, though, as the team was merely tied for 22nd in homers (166), with only four hitters managing more than 11.

Arizona's speed places plenty of pressure on Brewers' catcher William Contreras, who was slightly below-average at preventing steals this season. Contreras will also have plenty of pressure on his bat, as his 125 wRC+ is the highest mark among the team's regulars. Milwaukee's lineup looks out of place in October, with Contreras, Christian Yelich (124 wRC+), Mark Canha (111) and Carlos Santana (101) the team's only above-average bats. That weak lineup is offset by the best pitching staff in the league by some metrics, with Milwaukee's 85 ERA- beating second-place Toronto by five points. Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) will miss this series, but Burnes and Peralta make for a strong one-two punch, and Miley is at least a good fit for this series against the lefty-heavy Arizona lineup, even if his strong ERA isn't backed up by his peripherals. The bullpen is excellent and deep, as well, with Devin Williams (1.53 ERA, 36 saves) leading a group that features four relievers with ERAs of 2.58 or better.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Series Pick

•  Diamondbacks, +150 (BetMGM)

I'd take the Brewers at even odds in this one thanks to their dominant pitching staff (which is deployed by one of the league's better tacticians in Craig Counsell), but a price no better than -154 (FanDuel) overrates their advantage over a brief, three-game series. That leaves us stuck between trying to pick the exact series score of a Milwaukee win or deciding that the price on the underdog is too tempting to ignore. The decision comes down to whether you think the Diamondbacks have any chance at all with Pfaadt on the mound against Burnes in Game 1. If you answered "obviously not, it's Brandon Pfaadt against Corbin Burnes," then taking Milwaukee to sweep at +190 (PointsBet) becomes tempting. But Pfaadt's impressive three-run stretch to end the year — a 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 22:1 K:BB — means an upset in that game seems to at least be possible. On the whole, though, this pick is mostly about the fact that Milwaukee's offense is weak enough that Arizona's pitching weaknesses are unlikely to stand out as much as expected, especially as their bullpen improved to a much better eighth in ERA- since Aug. 1, with Paul Sewald a key addition.

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Miami Marlins (84-77) at Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

LHP Jesus Luzardo (3.63 ERA, 3.69 SIERA) vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.53 SIERA)

LHP Braxton Garrett (3.66 ERA, 3.62 SIERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (4.46 ERA, 3.75 SIERA)

RHP Edward Cabrera (4.24 ERA, 4.68 SIERA)  vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (4.18 ERA, 4.38 SIERA)

Series Preview

This is only the fourth playoff berth in the Marlins' 31-year history, all of which have come as a wild card. Two of their previous berths resulted in World Series titles, but as their modest 84 wins, negative-56 run differential and largely unimpressive rankings on the Key Stats table above indicate, it's going to take quite a run to duplicate the feat this year. In the regular season, their rotation did at least given them one major strength, with but Sandy Alcantara (elbow) out for the season and Eury Perez struggling to a 5.08 ERA over his last 10 starts and now out for the series due to hip inflammation, they're left with just two trustworthy starters in Luzardo and Garrett. That could be enough to win a three-game series, but Miami's bottom-10 bullpen is a problem that will become even more troublesome if they make it into the longer rounds that follow. The lineup did at least get deeper with the additions of Jake Burger and Josh Bell at the deadline, but it's still not a good one by playoff standards.

The Phillies, at least according to their regular-season rankings, look like the strongest of the four National League teams playing in this round. Neither their rotation nor their lineup had a great season, but both were comfortably above-average, and the offense looks better with Trea Turner coming to life down the stretch, posting a 165 wRC+ over the final two months after struggling to an 80 wRC+ over his first four. More is needed from Nola, who struggled in his walk year, if the team is to replicate a model which saw him and Wheeler handle 37 percent of the team's innings in last year's playoffs, but the Phillies' excellent bullpen should help ease the pressure on the starters. If you time-travelled here from 2020, when the Phillies' bullpen combined for a 7.06 ERA, that may look like a typo to you, but it's true: the Phillies' strength is their bullpen. This is suddenly an organization which can coax a 2.41 ERA out of Jeff Hoffman of all people, with Jose Alvarado (1.74 ERA) and Craig Kimbrel (3.26 ERA, 23 saves) forming a fearsome duo at back of a deep group.

Phillies vs. Marlins Series Pick

•  Phillies in three, +230 (DraftKings)

The Phillies are the clear favorites in this series given the injury-depleted Marlins' lack of any remaining notable strengths, but a price of -195 at best (DraftKings) is hard to justify over a three-game series. Taking Miami at +170 (BetMGM) is justifiable because almost any underdog at that kind of price would be justifiable in the wild-card round, but I'm more interested in trying to nail down the best way to bet on the favorites given the gap between the two clubs, especially with this series being played in Philadelphia. Where you take Philly in three or in two (+175 at BetMGM) mostly comes down to your faith in Nola. Thanks to a career-worst 1.49 HR/9, his ERA is far higher than most of his ERA estimators. I'll back the Marlins strengthened lineup and Miami's two young southpaws to secure one win between them in the opening two games, with game two being more likely, but if and when this gets to game three, the Phillies bullpen should get its chance to shine.