This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As we head into the final weekend of July, there are some interesting matchups on the docket. Also, a game between the Angels and Athletics where tickets are apparently available for as low as $6. Friday features 12 MLB matchups on the DFS slate. The first pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Here are my recommendations that will hopefully yield enough DFS success you can afford many a ticket to watch the Angels play the A's. You know, if you want to subject yourself to that.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. MIA ($9,800): The Brewers have probably built up enough of a lead in the not-so-competitive NL Central to hold on for the division title, but they have to be sweating things a bit. The rotation is banged up, and Christian Yelich maybe done for the season, but at least Peralta is around. Though he has a 3.88 ERA, he also has a 3.54 FIP, and he's struck out 11.39 batters per nine innings. It also helps the Brewers, and Peralta, that they are facing the Marlins. Miami is basically locked into finishing 29th in runs scored and team OPS, and it is closer to the White Sox in terms of being truly atrocious as opposed to being a run-of-the-mill bad offense.
Sonny Gray, STL vs. WAS ($9,300): While Gray's 3.54 ERA, compared to his 2.79 ERA last season, may make it seem like he's slid in his first year with the Cardinals, that's not entirely accurate. Gray's 2.87 FIP compares favorably to the 2.82 FIP he had in 2023, and his 5.46 K/BB rate is incredible. His only issue is an unusual problem; allowing homers on the road, but at home Gray has a 2.14 ERA and 0.3 HR/9 rate. Plus, the Nationals are not equipped to take advantage of the long ball anyway. While Washington is on the fringes of the bottom 10 in runs scored, it is neck-and-neck with Miami for last in home runs.
Drew Thorpe, CWS vs. SEA ($6,600): Garrett Crochet might be traded, and Erick Fedde is as good as gone, but Thorpe offers something interesting for the White Sox in these early stages of a full-on rebuild. He was so impressive in Double-A the organization skipped Triple-A, and through seven MLB starts, he has a 3.03 ERA. However, a terrible outing in Arizona in his second start is skewing his numbers. Thorpe has an 1.48 ERA over his last five starts, and on the season he's held both righties and lefties under the Mendoza line. Run support may be a worry, but the Mariners are 28th in runs scored, so they aren't exactly imposing.
Top Targets
My top targets are high end, even by the standards of top targets, but I think both Bobby Witt ($6,300) and who follows him are well worth it Friday. Also, I will try and save you some salary elsewhere to help you balance your lineup out. While Witt might fall short of both his 30 homers and 49 stolen bases of last season, he's hit .344 and might win a batting title with 40 doubles, so I am not complaining. He also has an 1.206 OPS at home. Kyle Hendricks was not terribly good the three prior seasons, but the wheels have come off in 2024. He has a 6.69 ERA, and over the last two seasons his fellow righties have hit .286 against him.
It would seem that Juan Soto ($6,000) is not looking to cede the AL MVP race to his teammate Aaron Judge (or his AL East rival Gunnar Henderson). Over the last three weeks Soto has an 1.203 OPS. Now, Yankee Stadium is often kind to lefties, but that is true of Fenway Park as well. Brayan Bello has a 6.20 ERA at home this year, and the fact he is also kind to lefties may play a role in that. In his career, southpaws have hit .299 against Bello.
Bargain Bats
It's unusual for a player to leave Miami for San Francisco and then see themselves fall from relevance, but that's kind of what's happened with Jorge Soler ($3,900). He hit 36 home runs for the Marlins in 2023, but by falling short of that in 2024, he's been forgotten. Still, he has 11 homers and 20 doubles through 89 games, and he has a .790 OPS against lefties. The Cuban can still hit southpaws, even if he hasn't hit them as hard. Meanwhile, Kyle Freeland has one of the most-remarkable splits I've ever seen. He has an 1.88 ERA at home – at Coors Field – but a 9.38 ERA on the road. However, he had a 5.13 ERA on the road last season as well, and over the last two years righties have hit over .300 against him.
I found myself with an unusual and difficult task here, searching for a Cardinals lefty who has shown any capacity for not just hitting, but hitting against lefties. Brendan Donovan ($3,900) is not a clean answer there. His career .666 OPS against southpaws would feel ominous if I were into numerology. However, he does offer a career .830 OPS at home. Why did I want a lefty hitter, though? MacKenzie Gore seems to have emerged as one of those rare lefty pitchers who is worse against left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, lefties have hit over .300 against him. Gore also has a 6.00 ERA since the start of June.
Stacks to Consider
Brewers vs. Marlins (Trevor Rogers): William Contreras ($5,000), Willy Adames ($4,400), Jackson Chourio ($3,500)
Rogers has managed to stay healthy, but beyond that there is little positive to say about his performance. He's lost more than a mile per hour off his fastball, his K/9 rate is down to 7.56, and his walks are up to 4.14 per nine innings. Making 20 starts doesn't mean much when you have a 4.59 ERA. While Rogers' fellow lefties have hit him well, righties have hit .275 against him, and that's a more straightforward matchup to tackle.
Contreras is a catcher who has hit .284 with 11 homers and five stolen bases, which will work at his position. His .856 OPS against lefties this year is good, but since 2022 he has an 1.011 OPS against southpaws. With 16 homers through 102 games, Adames will likely fall short of his usual level on that front. However, he has 24 doubles and a career-high 12 stolen bases as well. Oh, and the shortstop has a .913 OPS at home. Due to Yelich's back injury, the Brewers have no choice but to go with the rookie Chourio as the regular left fielder. He has 10 homers and 12 stolen bases, and he has a .746 OPS at home.
Mets vs. Atlanta (Charlie Morton): Francisco Lindor ($5,700), Pete Alonso ($5,000), J.D. Martinez ($4,900)
Morton is not just merely getting by on guile as a 40-year-old pitcher, as he has a fastball that averages 93.8 miles per hour. That being said, he's also a thoroughly mediocre pitcher. His career ERA is 3.99, and his ERA this year is 3.92. His FIP is 4.05, and his K/9 rate is down to 8.80. Also, he has a 4.47 ERA on the road. Righties have consistently hit Morton better, even though he is right-handed, so I went with three guys who can hit from that side of the plate.
After having 30 homers, 30 doubles and 30 stolen bases last season, a red-hot Lindor is up to 20 of each already in 2024. I noted he is hot, and indeed the shortstop has an 1.082 OPS over the last three weeks. Alonso is having the worst season of his career from a power perspective, but he still has 20 homers. Since 2022, he's slugged .497 against righties and .482 at home, so he can handle this scenario. Martinez has a .340 OBP, and while he feasts on lefties, he also really likes his new home ballpark. In his first season as a Met, he has an .892 OPS at home.
