This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 3-2, +0.83 RWBucks
Season: 40-55, -19.74 RWBucks
Things have stabilized here around the -20 mark, which isn't great, but as bumpy as the first seven weeks have been, I'll take it. I was a lump this weekend, watching baseball and golf and then baseball and then some golf and then mixing it up with some baseball. There's an argument that watching the games is a distraction if you're a handicapper, and I understand it. My approach requires some feel, though, and I'm only going to get that watching games.
This week should be fun, as I'll be in a state where I can put my recommendations here into action. I'll also get to enjoy every slate the second-best way to watch baseball: all at once through walls of HD screens. As I wrote earlier this year, my first experiences at sportsbooks date to chalkboards and tube TVs, and I found that to be riveting. It's no less so now that the games are easier to watch, the chairs are more comfortable, and the words "in-game betting" have been invented.
I'll stop short of spraying the board, but in the spirit of my wanderings, let's put a lot of picks out there for you today.
6:40 p.m. Cubs (Jake Arrieta) -1.5 (+118) over Pirates (Cody Ponce)
The Pirates held it together for a month, especially on the pitching side, but they now have a 5.48 ERA in May with a 6-15 record. The Cubs have gone the other way, thanks in part to a bullpen that has a 1.89 ERA this month. Let's look to steal some plus money against the call-up starting in place of Trevor Cahill. 1 RWBuck.
7 p.m. Rockies (Kyle Freeland) +210 over Mets (Jacob deGrom)
The Mets may have just 11 players available tonight. One is 0-19 this season. Another is 1-16 in his career. A different one is 2-11. Still another is a 29-year-old with a .191 career batting average. I know who the starting pitcher is; the problem is that he should be batting fifth. Maybe last night was the night to be on this, but I can't pass up a chance to bet against a lineup this egregiously awful. 1 RWBuck.
And let's tack this on: Mets team total under 3.5 (+107).1 RWBuck.
7 p.m. Braves (Charlie Morton)/Red Sox (Garrett Richards) over 10 (-104)
Some risk here, as both pitchers are coming off some of their best work in their most recent outings. Balanced against that we have two of the five best lineups in the baseball against right-handed pitchers, and two of the strongest lineup "clusters" in the game. Sequencing matters, and both Alex Cora and Brian Snitker stack their best hitters in a way that's more productive than spreading them out, creating big innings. I also don't trust either bullpen. 1.5 RWBucks.
7:40 p.m. Brewers (Corbin Burnes) first five innings -137 over Padres (Joe Musgrove)
One of the best pitchers in baseball, at home, backed by -- finally -- his team's projected starting lineup. This is, again, possibly a day late to have sniffed out this situation, but it's still a good one. The Padres are down Trent Grisham, a big blow to their outfield defense, and may be missing Manny Machado tonight as well. 1.5 RWBucks.
8 p.m. Cardinals (Jack Flaherty) first five innings +108 over White Sox (Lucas Giolito)
I want no part of the Cardinals' bullpen, so let's invest solely in Jack Flaherty, who has looked a lot more like his 2019 self rather than the 2020 version who never got untracked. Giolito has already given up more homers (nine) than he did in 40% more innings in 2020, and his command has regressed a bit since 2019. 1 RWBuck.
