Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The trade deadline has passed, leaving several prospect faces in new places.  The most notable deadline deal involved the Arizona Diamondbacks, who shipped ace Zack Greinke to the Houston Astros for four prospects, none of which were named Kyle Tucker.  Still, the D-Backs did well for themselves all things considered.  Seth Beer hasn't stopped hitting since being drafted in the first round last year out of Clemson, hitting a combined .310/.408/.556 with 25 home runs and 91 RBI through 101 games between High-A and Double-A.  Hurlers Corbin Martin and J.B. Bukauskas had been roughed up of late, but both possess plenty of upside and should see the majors sooner rather than later.  And 25-year-old Josh Rojas, a 26th round pick out of Hawaii in 2017, is batting .330/.417/.592 with 21 home runs, 76 RBI and 33 steals in 100 games between Double-A and Triple-A.  Add in the large amount of money Greinke is owed and the Diamondbacks appear to have received a hefty haul, even though the Astros now boast the best rotation in baseball and are heavy favorites to win the World Series.

Let's unearth some hidden gems, falling stars and surging phenoms in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Brailyn Marquez, P, CHC – It seems like ages ago since the Cubs have had a homegrown pitching prospect make his way from the lower levels of the minors to the big leagues.  Though Marquez is still a ways away from making a big-league impact, he has enjoyed a breakout season for the Cubbies and undoubtedly ranks as the top pitching prospect in the organization.  He's been particularly hot of late, posting back-to-back shutouts for Low-A South Bend.  The 20-year old southpaw has allowed just one hit over those two outings, a span of 12 innings - while walking one batter and striking out 22.  Yes, you read that correctly.  On the year, Marquez has recorded a 3.61 ERA and 102:43 K:BB in 77.1 innings.  But opposing batters are hitting just .228 against on the season, so he has clearly upped his game of late.

Seth Corry, P, SF – Corry has not allowed a run over his last four starts, a span of 23.1 innings at Low-A Augusta.  During that time, he has allowed just four hits while posting a 32:4 K:BB.  Corry slid to the third round in 2017 due to concerns about his control, but he has been simply dominant in his first year of full-season ball.  On the year, he's compiled a 1.72 ERA and 136:48 K:BB in 99.1 innings, while opposing batters are hitting a paltry .160 against.  The 20-year-old southpaw boasts a deadly curveball - which serves as his wipeout pitch - but also an emerging changeup, and his fastball command has proven much better than expected.  Corry is making a case for a huge vault up the prospect rankings.

Canaan Smith, OF, NYY – The Bronx Bombers surprisingly failed to make an impact move at the trade deadline, meaning they held onto prospects like Deivi Garcia and Smith, the latter of whom is having a breakout season of his own.  The 20-year old, who has wowed onlookers with his exit velocity, is batting .322/.422/.479 with eight home runs, 58 RBI and 11 steals through 100 games for Low-A Charleston.  Smith has recently been on fire, hitting a robust .405 with a homer, seven RBI and two steals over his last 10 games.  He's also extremely patient at the dish, as evidenced by his high On-Base Percentage, including his 62 walks in those 100 contests.  The Yankees believe more of his doubles will eventually turn into home runs as he continues to mature and hone his craft.  He's not Jasson Dominguez, but Smith is certainly a prospect to watch for the Yankees.

Cole Sands, P, MIN – Sands has been a strike-throwing machine between Low-A and High-A this season, posting a 98:16 K:BB through 88.1 innings.  Perhaps the polished college product out of Florida State should dominate at these levels given his pedigree, but he has delivered with razor-sharp efficiency.  Sands possesses three pitches, an easy delivery, and his statistics at Florida State may not have done him justice.  He may not project the upside of some other hurlers in the Minnesota system (Jordan Balazovic and Brusdar Graterol come to mind), but it is difficult to argue with the results thus far.

CHECK STATUS

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – Waters finally received that long-awaited promotion to Triple-A after batting .319/.366/.481 with five home runs, 41 RBI and 13 steals in 108 games for Double-A Mississippi.  However, he did not end his stint at that level on a high note by hitting just .154 over his final 10 games.  Also, Waters has fanned 121 times during those 108 games.  If he continues to hit .300 and above, the strikeouts matter far less but could be something to monitor as he ascends to Triple-A and ultimately the big leagues - where opposing pitchers will certainly look to exploit his aggressiveness at the dish.  Waters remains a top-flight prospect, but he may not produce the home run figures to justify so many strikeouts.

Jared Oliva, OF, PIT – Oliva has been flying under the radar in the Pirates organization, largely because he does not possess the home run pop that has taken the game by storm in recent years.  Still, the former Arizona Wildcat boasts plenty of speed, and is not completely devoid of power.  Oliva is slashing .285/.362/.422 with six home runs, 37 RBI and 31 steals through 96 games for Double-A Altoona.  And he's been on a tear recently, hitting .361 with five RBI and three steals in his last 10 outings.  Though Bryan Reynolds has surprised this season, Melky Cabrera should be only a short-term fill-in for the Bucs, and Gregory Polanco has failed to stay healthy.  If Oliva continues to hit, he could end up playing his way into the Pirates' future plans.

Jojanse Torres, P, HOU – As mentioned above, the Astros unloaded several prospects in order to obtain Zack Greinke, and also acquired another starter in Aaron Sanchez from the Toronto Blue Jays.  The Astros are clearly in "Win-Now" mode, but that doesn't mean the prospect wheel comes to a screeching halt.  In fact, it could be argued that now it is even more important for the Astros to develop their farm system even more and uncover some sleepers - and Torres could be one of those finds.  Though already 24 out of the Dominican Republic, he's just scratching the surface of his potential at High-A.  However, Torres uses a fastball that can reach the upper-90's, a power slider and a capable changeup.  He's been surging of late, failing to allow an earned run in four of his last five outings.  And over his last two starts, Torres has struck out 17 hitters.  With opposing batters only managing a putrid .175 against on the season, the his progress could be worth monitoring.

Kevin Padlo, 3B, TB – Padlo has come from virtual anonymity to possibly being on the brink of seeing the big leagues.  He couldn't hit above .225 in any of the past three seasons, but has achieved double-digit home runs and stolen bases in 2019 through 87 games between Double-A and Triple-A.  He has been tearing the cover off the ball since being promoted to Triple-A, batting .339/.413/.786 with six home runs and 15 RBI in 17 games.  While those numbers are unlikely to continue, Padlo has shown an improved hitting stroke this year with decent power, speed and patience at the dish.  With the Rays racked with injuries in the infield, the 23-year old could even parlay this recent hot streak into a September call-up.

DOWNGRADE

Anthony Kay, P, TOR – Kay tormented opposing hitters earlier this season at Double-A, but the bump to Triple-A has been a far different story.  The 24-year old southpaw posted a 6.61 ERA in seven outings for Triple-A Syracuse before joining the Blue Jays and heading to Triple-A Buffalo.  His first start with his new squad did not go any better, as Kay allowed nine hits and seven runs - but only three earned - last Wednesday.  Free passes continue to haunt him, while the opposition is also batting over .325 against him since moving to Triple-A.  Perhaps this is just a blip on the radar for Kay as he adjusts, or perhaps the Mets did well to unload him when they did.

Yusniel Diaz, OF, BAL – The rebuilding O's have some exciting arms coming through the system, and the addition of Adley Rutschman in this year's draft should also give their hitting prospects a jolt of life.  Still, it's been a disappointing 2019 campaign overall for the top-flight batters in the Baltimore farm system.  Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle have both battled injury and inconsistency and the same can be said for Diaz, who was the chief return in the Manny Machado deal with the Dodgers last season.  Even though Diaz spent 97 games at Double-A last year - and 31 in 2017 - he returned to the same level in 2019 and is slashing .258/.331/.465 with 10 home runs and 51 RBI through 69 games.  Diaz's power numbers are decent, but his speed has virtually disappeared.  He has not swiped a bag this season, and is currently on the Disabled List due to a quadriceps injury - marking the third time this season he's been shelved.  Diaz has also been striking out more and walking less this season than in years past.  His progress has been slow, and he has not become the breakout star the Orioles hoped he'd be when they dealt for him last year.

Jake Fraley, OF, SEA – Fraley finds himself on the Injured List due to a quad injury.  Though the issue is not considered serious, it could dash his hopes for being called up in September when rosters expand.  After scorching Double-A earlier this season, Fraley had come back down to earth a bit at Triple-A prior to the injury by batting .262/.321/.524 with six home runs, 29 RBI and six steals through 32 games with Tacoma in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League.  He has helped his stock tremendously this season, and his power/speed combination remains intriguing.  However, the Mariners could choose to exercise caution and wait until 2020 to unleash Fraley on the rest of the league.

Ryan Rolison, P, COL – On one hand, it may be unfair to judge Rolison on his statistics in the hitter-friendly California League.  On the other hand, he will be playing his future home games in the thin air in Colorado, so maybe it is the perfect environment to project out.  Rolison has posted a suspect ERA at High-A Lancaster of 5.38.  He has been battered and bruised over his last 10 starts, notching an ERA of 8.15 and has allowed at least eight hits in six of those outings.  Unsurprisingly, Rolison has been done in by the long ball, allowing a staggering 21 home runs this season, which is second in the entire league.  He has registered 97 strikeouts while walking only 27 over 90.1 innings.  However, opposing batters are hitting .287 against, and his inability to keep the ball down has caused his ERA to skyrocket.  The 22-year old was a first-round pick out of Ole Miss last year, so he has plenty of time to right the ship.  However, these struggles could foreshadow future issues.