This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
Prospecting can be difficult, to say the least. Development is not linear, even for the elite prospects. One can look at Forrest Whitley's early struggles at Triple-A this season, for instance. Or how about the rise and fall of Seuly Matias, the 20-year-old big bopper in the Royals system? Matias clubbed 31 home runs at Low-A as a teenager last year, coming from virtual anonymity to make many of the prospect lists. However, he hit just .231 and fanned 134 times in 94 games. Still, this was ignored because "he was young". In 2019, Matias has recorded only four home runs in 33 games at High-A and is struggling to make much contact by hitting .164 with 59 strikeouts. That's not to say last year was a fluke, or that Matias is never going to be a phenom to follow again. More so that it's easy to jump to conclusions from a good week, month or even year. Stringing together multiple solid seasons as the competition stiffens is clearly much better than riding the wave of a small sample size or even one solid year. It's also important to analyze the entirety of a player's skill set before declaring him a future star.
In the end, there's still a lot of guesswork in predicting which prospects will pan out. That goes for any sport, not just baseball. But at least baseball usually gives several years of minor league experience from which to draw conclusions. Make sure to use
Prospecting can be difficult, to say the least. Development is not linear, even for the elite prospects. One can look at Forrest Whitley's early struggles at Triple-A this season, for instance. Or how about the rise and fall of Seuly Matias, the 20-year-old big bopper in the Royals system? Matias clubbed 31 home runs at Low-A as a teenager last year, coming from virtual anonymity to make many of the prospect lists. However, he hit just .231 and fanned 134 times in 94 games. Still, this was ignored because "he was young". In 2019, Matias has recorded only four home runs in 33 games at High-A and is struggling to make much contact by hitting .164 with 59 strikeouts. That's not to say last year was a fluke, or that Matias is never going to be a phenom to follow again. More so that it's easy to jump to conclusions from a good week, month or even year. Stringing together multiple solid seasons as the competition stiffens is clearly much better than riding the wave of a small sample size or even one solid year. It's also important to analyze the entirety of a player's skill set before declaring him a future star.
In the end, there's still a lot of guesswork in predicting which prospects will pan out. That goes for any sport, not just baseball. But at least baseball usually gives several years of minor league experience from which to draw conclusions. Make sure to use all the information at your disposal if you want to dive into the murky depths of the prospecting waters.
Let's take a look at some movers and shakers in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.
UPGRADE
Austin Riley, 3B, ATL – Perhaps no hitter in the minors has been hotter of late than Riley, who is batting .351 with seven home runs and 17 RBI over the last 10 games for Triple-A Gwinnett - bringing the 22-year-old's overall slash line to .300/.376/.671 on the season. Despite being known as a power prospect, Riley has never hit below .271 across any year in the minors. With Josh Donaldson currently blocking him at the hot corner, Riley has played some outfield of late to see if the Braves could find a spot for him on the field and in their lineup. If Riley continues to hit at this clip, he will force Atlanta to call him up sooner rather than later.
Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – Kelenic was mentioned in passing a couple of weeks ago, but he continues to rake and thus warrants an exclusive write-up. The key component in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade along with Justin Dunn, the 19-year-old has been lighting up Low-A by slashing .316/.405/.564 with six home runs, 18 RBI and six steals through 34 games for West Virginia. Kelenic possesses that intriguing power/speed combination, but also has the ability to hit for average. If Cano and Diaz don't give the Mets the boost they expected, the organization could regret shipping off Kelenic down the road. He's arguably the M's top prospect, and one of the better outfield prospects in all of baseball right now.
Jordan Balazovic, P, MIN – Balazovic hasn't pitched many innings since being drafted in the fifth round out of Canada in 2016, but he's shown about as much upside as any hurler in the Minnesota system. He throws hard, with a heater touching the upper-90's. The kid blew away the competition in four starts at Low-A earlier this year, posting a 2.18 ERA and 33:4 K:BB in 20.2 innings. That resulted in a quick promotion to High-A, where Balazovic dazzled in his first start at that level by tossing seven perfect innings while fanning 10 batters. The development of his slider and changeup will go a long way towards determining his future role, but the Twinkies have to be thrilled with his start to the season thus far.
Brendan McKay, P/1B, TB – The bad news for McKay? His quest to be a true two-way player may be in jeopardy, as he is batting just .185 with no home runs through 19 games at Double-A this season, after hitting .214 across three levels last season. On the positive side, he is dominating the competition on the mound in 2019. McKay has posted an obscene 47:8 K:BB in just 29.2 innings for Double-A Montgomery. His ERA sits at 1.82, and opposing batters are hitting just .175 against him. He possesses standout control of his fastball and cutter, mixing in two off-speed pitches as well to keep hitters off balance. The Rays are notoriously conservative with their pitching prospects, so even though he looks MLB-ready now, don't expect to see him in the big leagues until next year. Nevertheless, he looks the part of a future rotation anchor.
CHECK STATUS
Nicky Lopez, SS, KC – It's easy to forget about Lopez due to his age (24), his below-average power and the fact he is currently blocked at the big-league level. That being said, he is currently raking at Triple-A and has some intriguing numbers to analyze. Let's start with the most outrageous: Lopez has walked 20 times in 31 games, and struck out just five times. Yes, you read that correctly. Those are unheard of statistics, particularly in this day and age of players selling out for home runs. Lopez is not devoid of power, as he has already smacked three home runs for the Storm Chasers. Lopez is also on pace to steal 20-plus bags, having already notched nine thefts through those 29 contests. Did I mention he's hitting .353? Lopez's advanced approach at the dish and decent speed should make him useful if the Royals find a place for him to play, end up needing an injury replacement, or simply decide to use him as trade bait.
Konnor Pilkington, P, CHW – Unsurprisingly, Pilkington has dominated Low-A as a polished collegian out of Mississippi State. The 21-year-old southpaw has recorded a 1.62 ERA and 42:11 K:BB in 33.1 innings, with opposing batters hitting a putrid .132 against. Pilkington has a big frame and above-average off-speed pitches, supposedly not the most explosive fastball. Still, he knows how to pitch, and did hit the mid-90's on his heater earlier in his collegiate career. As one of the youngest college pitchers in last year's draft, Pilkington still displays some upside. And if his fastball velocity ticks back up, he could emerge as a sleeper prospect for the ChiSox.
DL Hall, P, BAL – Hall certainly has the strikeout stuff, as the former first-round pick has fanned 38 batters in just 22.1 innings for High-A Frederick this season. He also finished last year at Low-A on a tear, allowing one run or fewer in each of his last 13 starts. He did walk a few too many batters with 42 in 94.1 innings, but managed to limit the overall damage. Unfortunately, his wildness has caused some problems early on this year, as he has issued 17 free passes already. The additional base runners have led to a 4.43 ERA through six starts for the lefty. Hall's upside is tremendous, but the extra walks will continue to haunt him as he ascends to the higher levels.
Patrick Sandoval, P, LAA – Sandoval was dealt to the Angels in an under-the-radar trade for Martin Maldonado last season. He spent time at three different levels, showing outstanding command while also striking out almost 11 batters per nine innings. He began the 2019 campaign at Double-A, and made quick work of the opposition. The 22-year-old southpaw posted a 32:7 K:BB in 20 innings before receiving a promotion to Triple-A. The Angels own a dearth of starting pitching at the big-league level, and have already called up fellow prospect Griffin Canning. If Sandoval continues to shine, he could be next man up for the Halos.
DOWNGRADE
Tristen Lutz, OF, MIL – Lutz is a power prospect who hasn't quite been able to harness his tools yet. As a 19-year-old last season, Lutz clubbed 13 home runs and drove in 63 runs, hitting .245/.321/.421 at Low-A. Not terrible numbers for a teenager at that level, though not exactly eye-popping stats either - and also fanned 139 times in 119 games. He's off to a sluggish start in 2019 at High-A at 20, slashing just .231/.303/.398 with three home runs and 10 RBI through 29 games. He has been punched out 40 times over that span, while walking just nine times. Lutz needs to make more consistent contact and gain a better sense of the strike zone, particularly if he is not going to be a big bopper and hit the long ball. Lutz is still young, and he has finally started hitting of late (.359 in his last 10 games), but has still fanned 13 times during that stretch.
Mickey Moniak, OF, PHI – Moniak was the top pick of the 2016 draft, meaning the Phillies passed on players like Nick Senzel, Ian Anderson, A.J. Puk, Matt Manning and Forrest Whitley, among others. Moniak is still only 21, but his tools have never really materialized. The Phillies continue to promote him year-by-year, but his issues remain and may not ever be fixed. He strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, and is barely a candidate for double-digit home runs or steals. Currently at Double-A, Moniak is hitting just .223/.248/.421 with three home runs, 17 RBI and four steals through 29 contests. He's struck out 36 times compared to just four walks. More power and/or speed would at least make him mildly interesting as a fantasy prospect, but even then there is no guarantee he can hit for enough average to sustain production in either category. It's safe to say Moniak has been a massive disappointment.
J.B. Bukauskas, P, HOU – The entire starting rotation at Double-A Corpus Christi has been battered, including Bukauskas. The 22-year-old hurler was a first round pick in 2017, and he performed like one last year by appearing at an astounding five levels before finishing up the season with one start to Double-A. His return to the Hooks has not gone as swimmingly though, as he has allowed 17 earned runs over his first three starts and his ERA ballooned to an insane 19.13. He then tossed two consecutive four-inning shutouts, before being blasted for three more earned runs in four innings in his last start Thursday. Bukauskas has been hittable, yet has only given up one home run. Walks have been the chief concern for the former Tar Heel, as he has issued 20 free passes in 20 innings. Clearly some tweaks are in order for Bukauskas to right the ship.
Taylor Widener, P, AZ – Widener enjoyed a breakout season in 2018, posting a 2.75 ERA and 176:43 K:BB in 137.1 innings for Double-A Reno. He led the Southern League in strikeouts by a wide margin, but perhaps more importantly improved his control. Other than Jon Duplantier, Widener was considered the top pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks heading into this season. Unfortunately, those good vibrations have fallen by the wayside thus far in 2019, as Widener has been bruised and battered through eight starts in the Pacific Coast League. Widener has a bloated 9.18 ERA through 33.1 innings. He has been bitten by the long ball, surrendering eight home runs over that span. By contrast, he allowed 12 all of last season. His wildness is back, too, as he has walked 17 batters already. It's safe to say not much has gone right for the 24-year-old righty this year, as opposing batters are hitting .348 against him.
