Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As we hit June and the summer is almost here, let's first shine a spotlight on some players who should be getting more publicity:

• Luis De Leon, a southpaw from the Bahamas in the Baltimore organization, has been brought along slowly but has broken out with a staggering 41:7 K:BB in 28 innings. He's since been promoted to Double-A.
• Quinn Mathews, a 23-year-old hurler out of Stanford, has found little resistance at A-ball with an impressive 76:14 K:BB from 49.2 combined innings. Double-A should be a far better gauge for his future path after being selected in the 2023 fourth round by the Cardinals.
• Adrian Del Castillo, a 24-year-old backstop in the Arizona system, is enjoying a breakout season - albeit in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League. Across 51 games, he's slashing .340/.391/.612 with 10 homers and 37 RBI.
• Another University of Miami product C.J. Kayfus is tearing the cover off the ball at High-A. The 22-year-old first baseman - a third-rounder by the Guardians last year - has produced a .338/.437/.578 line with seven home runs, 37 RBI and four steals through 40 appearances.

Here are some other notable names in the news in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Max Clark, OF, DET – Clark's performance at Low-A thus far as a teenager should be incredibly reassuring for the Tigers as the third overall selection from 2023 is batting .272 with a .381 OBP with almost as many walks (31) as strikeouts (38) and 15 steals over 43 contests. He's only beginning to scratch the surface of his power potential with only nine extra-base hits in almost 175 at-bats, which will be the next step in his development and evolution. If Clark ever develops legitimate pop, he'd be considered one of the top MLB prospects. As it already stands, he should still be pretty high on any list given his other standout tools.

Connor Norby, 2B, BAL – Norby should make his MLB debut shortly, and his promotion should also be notable in terms of potentially passing Jackson Holliday on the depth chart - at least for the time being. Holliday came up first, but struggled mightily for the Orioles before ultimately being demoted. Even with the potential injury to Jorge Mateo, Baltimore still boast a plethora of infield options, yet it appears Norby will get the next shot. He'll turn 24 later this week, so it could be now or never for a player that spent all of 2023 at Triple-A. And Norby has slashed .286/.374/.510 with nine homers, 36 RBI and seven stolen bases across 51 games this season.

Jaison Chourio, OF, CLE – The younger brother of Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio, Jaison recently turned 19 and should be viewed as a slightly less powerful version. Currently at Low-A, he's hitting .288 with a .411 OBP with more walks (33) than strikeouts (31) while also stealing 17 bases from only 43 appearances. The key difference between the two is the power potential as Jaison is a switch-hitter who's about 30-40 pounds lighter with only two home runs this year and profiles as more of a prototypical leadoff-type bat. He's still viewed favorably in prospect circles, but any comparison to his older brother (similar to Luisangel Acuna) is going to be unfair in terms of pure tools.

Hunter Barco, P, PIT – The future is now for the Pirates, at least when it comes to their starting rotation. Jared Jones started off the season with a bang while Paul Skenes has lived up to the hype so far as last year's top pick and Mitch Keller is the elder statesman of the group at 28. Though Quinn Priester has been disappointing, the Double-A rotation is currently dynamite with the likes of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft. Barco is at High-A and likely behind that trio, yet the 23-year-old southpaw has been healthy and extremely productive in 2024 with a 2.55 ERA and 51:13 K:BB through 42.1 innings while batters have only gone .209 against. Perhaps most impressively, he's only surrendered one homer in 60.2 minor-league innings. Already a recipient of Tommy John surgery, Barco will likely continue to have his innings monitored. While it'd be extremely unlikely to see him in the Majors this year, Pittsburgh should have at least two open slots in the rotation next season behind Skenes, Jones and Keller. The expectation is that Barco will finish the year at Double-A with the chance to see primetime in 2025.

CHECK STATUS

Caden Dana, P, LAA – It might not be fair to hold organizational failure against an individual prospect, but Dana gets knocked simply for the being a part of the Angels' system as the organization has been notoriously dismal in both drafting and handling and development of its prospects. He could still be a success story as the 20-year-old righty was an 11th round pick in 2022 and is already thriving at Double-A with a 2.62 ERA and 53:19 K:BB in 55 innings with batters hitting .185 against. Dana's strikeout ratio is a bit down from a season ago, and he does tend to walk too many batters. He's arguably the Halos' top prospect, but that would not be the case with most other clubs. Considering Dana's youth and where he was selected, the Angels should be thrilled to find themselves a potential diamond in the rough.

Justin Wrobleski, P, LAD – Wrobleski is another hurler who's outperformed his draft slot. The 23-year-old southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery prior to being drafted in 2021, yet has exceeded expectations since his return with a 3.73 ERA and 51:10 K:BB over 50.2 innings at Double-A. He throws strikes, offers four pitches and isn't prone to surrendering the long ball.  While the Dodgers rotation is stellar even without Shohei Ohtani, there have been enough injuries this season for at least the possibility of Wrobleski making his MLB debut later this year. He's become arguably the top pitching prospect for the Dodgers now that Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and Emmet Sheehan have all graduated.

Sebastian Walcott, SS, TEX – Walcott is only 18 and is already at High-A. He remains more projection than anything else at this point, as his numbers are pedestrian at best as he's only slashing .191/.324/.309 with three homers, 10 RBI and six steals through 45 games. However, there are some underlying numbers that paint a better picture. Despite starting the campaign as the youngest player in the league, Walcott has drawn 29 walks while his strikeout total (50) is lower than some other highly touted prospects like Xavier Isaac. The Texas organization has been known to be a bit aggressive with their prospects (see Evan Carter), but certainly the result of winning the World Series last year speaks volumes. Walcott is still raw and young, though his tools remain strong while his production (or lack thereof) should be given more time.

Logan Evans, P, SEA – Evans has been a great find for the Mariners. A 12th-rounder in 2023, he skipped High-A entirely and went right to Double-A to begin the season. Evans has been borderline dominant at this level by posting a minuscule 1.23 ERA and 47:15 K:BB from 51.1 frames while opposing batters have only batted .188 against the 6'4", 215lb righty. He succeeds by inducing plenty of ground balls via weak contact as well as swings and misses with his slider/cutter combination. Add in that he added velocity to the fastball beginning in the spring, and Evans is certainly a prospect on the rise.

DOWNGRADE

Junior Caminero, 3B, TB – Caminero is once again on the Injured List with a Grade 2 left quadriceps strain, which is expected to sideline him for at least the next month. He was in a significant slump before getting sidelined as his average dipped from .333 to .261 over the last month. Caminero's long-term outlook remains stellar, but this result is extremely disappointing considering he had a chance to make the Rays' Opening Day roster. Instead, it appears likely he'll spend most - if not all - of 2024 in the minors.

Cade Horton, P, CHC – Horton left his last start early due to a lat issue and was placed on the IL at Triple-A Iowa. Considered one of the top prospect pitchers heading into the season, he had struggled in five starts after being promoted the current level as he walked 11 batters, allowed four homers and 15 earned runs across 18 innings to end up with a 7.50 ERA. The sample size is small and Horton may have been hurt even prior to his lastouting, so certainly a downgrade just in that regard may not be fair. However, the injury also pushes back his eventual arrival date to the big club, especially with the Cubs losing eight of their last 10 and falling below .500 for the season.  As a result, the organization will proceed with extra caution when it comes to their prized phenom.

Owen Murphy, P, ATL – Murphy will miss the remainder of the campaign and at least the first half of 2025 as he undergoes Tommy John surgery. He was off to a sensational start to the year by posting a 1.54 ERA and 60:12 K:BB in only 41 innings while opposing batters were hitting .129 against. Even if the 20-year-old righty doesn't reappear for two years, he'll still only be 22 at that time. Murphy's upside remains promising, yet he's unlikely to be of assistance in fantasy circles for a while.

Drew Gilbert, OF, NYM – Gilbert isn't expected back at Triple-A until at least the end of June. One of the star prospects acquired in the Justin Verlander deal last season, his hamstring strain has lingered having only played in seven games prior to being shelved. There's certainly no rush from the Mets' brass given the nightmare first two months of the season for the parent club. That being said, they'd like to see some progress from Gilbert before the trade deadline when the organization could decide the fates of hitters like Jeff McNeil, Harrison Bader and Starling Marte. If the Mets decide to sell off parts at the deadline, that could open up playing time for Gilbert - assuming he's healthy. If not, he'll spend most of the remainder of the season in the minors.