This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
The top 200 prospect rankings on the site get updated throughout the season, with wholesale changes usually happening four or five times. This update, however, might be the most interesting of the season, as it includes players selected in last week's first-year player draft.
At times I have chosen to only include players who were in the minor leagues, as prospects in the big leagues are almost never available in dynasty leagues. Going forward, however, I think it makes the most sense to just rank everyone who qualifies, regardless of whether they are in the majors or minors. So with that in mind, all hitters with fewer than 130 big league at-bats and all pitchers with fewer than 50 big league innings were considered for these rankings, which can be found here.
Here is a breakdown of the updated top 25, as well as a list of players from this year's draft class who were included in the updated top 200 and 25 players who just missed the cut.
Tiered Top 25
Tier One
1. Joey Gallo
2. Yoan Moncada
This was a last minute switch. I never thought anyone in the minors would pass Moncada on this list after Byron Buxton, Corey Seager and Nomar Mazara graduated, but Gallo has been the most impressive prospect on a per-plate appearance basis, especially when factoring in his history. Last year he struck out 39.5 percent of the time in 228 plate appearances at Triple-A Round Rock while this year
The top 200 prospect rankings on the site get updated throughout the season, with wholesale changes usually happening four or five times. This update, however, might be the most interesting of the season, as it includes players selected in last week's first-year player draft.
At times I have chosen to only include players who were in the minor leagues, as prospects in the big leagues are almost never available in dynasty leagues. Going forward, however, I think it makes the most sense to just rank everyone who qualifies, regardless of whether they are in the majors or minors. So with that in mind, all hitters with fewer than 130 big league at-bats and all pitchers with fewer than 50 big league innings were considered for these rankings, which can be found here.
Here is a breakdown of the updated top 25, as well as a list of players from this year's draft class who were included in the updated top 200 and 25 players who just missed the cut.
Tiered Top 25
Tier One
1. Joey Gallo
2. Yoan Moncada
This was a last minute switch. I never thought anyone in the minors would pass Moncada on this list after Byron Buxton, Corey Seager and Nomar Mazara graduated, but Gallo has been the most impressive prospect on a per-plate appearance basis, especially when factoring in his history. Last year he struck out 39.5 percent of the time in 228 plate appearances at Triple-A Round Rock while this year he has cut that rate to 25.8 percent in 163 plate appearances. This doesn't come as a massive surprise, as Gallo has made huge improvements every time he has repeated a level, but his K-rate hasn't been below 30 percent since he was at High-A in 2014 so it seems like he has started to really turn the corner. Additionally, home runs and walks account for 27 percent of his plate appearances, so he continues to do plenty of damage. Nothing has changed with Moncada. Gallo always had the most fantasy upside of anyone who started the season in the minors, and he's done enough to make that upside a legitimate reality to pass Moncada as a fantasy commodity.
Tier Two
3. Lucas Giolito
4. Julio Urias
5. Alex Reyes
These were my top three pitching prospects before the season and nothing has changed. Giolito has really come on of late (three earned runs, 32:7 K:BB in his last 26 innings), and he continues to look the part of a future ace. Urias is 19 and has a 21:7 K:BB in 17 innings in the big leagues, so he certainly hasn't hurt his stock. Reyes, 21, has a 39:11 K:BB in 21.2 innings at Triple-A, so his stock has never been higher. In two years these could be three of the top 15 starters in fantasy.
Tier Three
6. David Dahl
7. Blake Snell
8. Victor Robles
9. Brendan Rodgers
10. Alex Bregman
11. A.J. Reed
12. Trea Turner
13. J.P. Crawford
14. Tim Anderson
15. Jorge Mateo
16. Dansby Swanson
17. Nick Williams
Anyone in this tier could justifiably be ranked No. 6, and the way I would order these guys is liable to change before this article is posted. Here we have 11 high-end hitting prospects, joined by a future No. 2 starter in Snell. Seven of the hitters could play shortstop, although Bregman and possibly Swanson will end up moving off the position due to a better option already being in the organization. Robles, Rodgers and Mateo stand out as the three who are still in the lower levels, but they offer big-time upside while also being extremely safe options given their age. Anderson and Williams have the worst approaches among this tier, and therefore probably carry the most risk. They will likely go through more growing pains than the rest at the big league level, but they both have the tools to be top 50 fantasy assets if they figure it out.
Tier Four
18. Jameson Taillon
19. Orlando Arcia
20. Clint Frazier
21. Manuel Margot
22. Tyler Glasnow
23. Willson Contreras
24. Andrew Benintendi
25. Bradley Zimmer
It's unclear what kind of fantasy upside some of the hitters in this tier offer. Arcia, Margot, Contreras and Benintendi could all be top 200 fantasy assets in time, while never being considered top 100 options. They can all hit, which is why they rank this highly, but it's debatable how much power they'll show against big league pitching. Arcia and Margot at least boast plus speed, which is why they rank above Contreras and Benintendi. Frazier and Zimmer have the most upside in this tier. Frazier is showing a better-than-expected approach against Double-A pitching this season, but he could still really struggle, at least initially, against big leaguers who can sequence and show him multiple above-average offspeed offerings. Zimmer's developmental path this season has been unexpected, to say the least. He's flashed more upside and risk than expected, but the power/speed combo is hard to argue with. Taillon gets the nod over Glasnow as there are no questions about his control, he has similar stuff, and he's already contributing in the majors.
Draft Additions
27. Corey Ray
30. Kyle Lewis
42. Nick Senzel
63. Will Craig
68. Blake Rutherford
72. Mickey Moniak
76. Jason Groome
100. A.J. Puk
108. Delvin Perez
111. Josh Lowe
112. Forrest Whitley
113. Braxton Garrett
116. Will Benson
131. Alex Kirilloff
134. Nolan Jones
137. Zack Collins
142. Dakota Hudson
150. Matt Manning
151. Ian Anderson
163. Justin Dunn
165. Riley Pint
178. Kevin Gowdy
182. Bryan Reynolds
184. Cal Quantrill
196. Joey Wentz
197. Buddy Reed
25 Who Just Missed
Spencer Adams, Carlos Asuaje, Wuilmer Becerra, Beau Burrows, Matt Chapman, Jharel Cotton, Oscar De La Cruz, Enyel De Los Santos, Zach Eflin, Joan Gregorio, Ryon Healy, Desmond Lindsay, Triston McKenzie, Daniel Mengden, Johan Mieses, Ryan Mountcastle, Tom Murphy, Ryan O'Hearn, Daniel Palka, Nick Plummer, Andrew Stevenson, Matthew Strahm, Cole Tucker, Garrett Whitley, Yeyson Yrizarri
Feel free to post any top 200-related comments/questions in the comments section of this article.
