Ryan Mountcastle

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Baltimore Orioles

2024 Stats

AVG

.271

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Mountcastle was batting .227/.264/.431 when he was put on the IL in early June with vertigo. He had been in a bad slump in the weeks leading up to illness but it's unclear if they were related. After returning a month later, Mountcastle went on a roll, posting a .326/.407/.492 line the rest of the way. He missed some time in September with a shoulder injury but was able to return for the playoffs. Taken as a whole, it appears Mountcastle improved across the board compared to the previous season, but his batted ball metrics, and expected average and slug were nearly identical both seasons. To his credit, Mountcastle fanned at the lowest rate since his rookie year, which was the pandemic season. Mountcastle undershot his expected homers for the second straight season, which could be due to the renovations in Camden Yards, or a hint there is latent pop. Mountcastle's cost of acquisition should be reasonable, though there are durability concerns since he's never played more than 145 games. Even so, there is a draftable floor, with a chance 2021 is not Mountcastle's apex season. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#321

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 185

DOB 2/18/1997

Drafted 1st Rd 2015

Knocks 30th double

1BBaltimore Orioles

September 28, 2024

Mountcastle went 3-for-5 with a double and a run scored in Friday's 7-2 win over the Twins.

ANALYSIS
Mountcastle has gone 6-for-13 (.462) over four games since he returned from a month-long absence due to a sprained left wrist. He has reclaimed his starting role at first base and should maintain that spot heading into the postseason. Mountcastle has been steady at the plate despite a down power year, producing a .271/.309/.428 slash line, 13 home runs, 30 doubles, two triples, 62 RBI, 54 runs scored and three stolen bases over 122 contests.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+22%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+16%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+64%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+7%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.854	458	59	21	62	5	.294	.349	.505
Since 2022vs Right	.701	1128	121	32	154	5	.250	.298	.403
2024vs Left	.812	143	18	4	12	2	.306	.350	.463
2024vs Right	.701	364	36	9	51	1	.257	.291	.410
2023vs Left	1.052	161	27	12	35	1	.338	.398	.655
2023vs Right	.640	309	37	6	33	2	.235	.291	.349
2022vs Left	.693	154	14	5	15	2	.239	.299	.394
2022vs Right	.741	455	48	17	70	2	.254	.308	.433
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+4%

OPS at Home

2024

+4%

OPS at Home

2023

+3%

OPS on Road

2022

+11%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.761	763	81	28	113	5	.269	.318	.443
Since 2022Away	.730	823	99	25	103	5	.257	.307	.423
2024Home	.748	242	28	8	32	2	.268	.306	.442
2024Away	.719	265	26	5	31	1	.273	.309	.410
2023Home	.767	218	24	9	32	1	.262	.321	.446
2023Away	.789	252	40	9	36	2	.276	.333	.456
2022Home	.767	303	29	11	49	2	.274	.327	.440
2022Away	.691	306	33	11	36	2	.227	.284	.406
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Stat Review

How does Ryan Mountcastle compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.24

BB Rate

5.3%

K Rate

22.5%

BABIP

.327

ISO

.154

AVG

.271

OBP

.308

SLG

.425

OPS

.733

wOBA

.319

Exit Velocity

90.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

33.4%

Barrels/PA

6.3%

Expected BA

.275

Expected SLG

.455

Sprint Speed

23.5 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

44.4%

Line Drive %

21.6%

Fly Ball %

34.0%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Ryan Mountcastle Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Orioles Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Mountcastle's numbers don't express it, but he sported better skills than the previous season, but was shortchanged between six and nine homers, depending on which xHR mark is trusted. Looking at his spray chart, the discrepancy is more than the new Camden Yards dimensions. Mountcastle increased his fly ball exit velocity 1-mph, adding around four feet to his average fly ball distance. Yet, his HR/FB slipped from 20.4% to a snake bit 13.3%. Mountcastle chased less while being more aggressive in the zone, resulting in shaving a couple of points of his strikeout rate. The narrative will be moving the left field fences back in Camden Yards cost him power, but he was also unlucky in the home run department. This presents a buying opportunity as many will over adjust Mountcastle's new power baseline. He's still in the upswing of his career, hitting in the meat of an improving lineup.

After a surprise debut year in 2020 when he hit for a .333 average, the batting average stepped back some for Mountcastle in 2021, but fortunately, that was not the case with his power. After a slow start (.628 OPS on June 1), he heated up over the last four months (.878 OPS with 28 of his 33 homers). He gave up some contact for more power (.159 to .232 ISO, 87 to 89 mph avgEV). It's tough to gauge his talent going forward since his limited production keeps bouncing around (e.g. 1.183 OPS in Aug. with a .710 OPS in Sept.). He should not be a drag in batting average and provide 30 or so home runs with a half dozen steals. It's not game-changing talent, but Mountcastle should be considered a nice roster fill-in especially since he's qualified at first base and outfield.

Mountcastle is not the answer for the Orioles, but he is pretty clearly one of the best players on the current roster. Among Baltimore position players in 2020, Mountcastle finished third in fWAR behind Jose Iglesias (who's no longer with the team) and Anthony Santander. He achieved that finish despite not debuting until Aug. 21. His success over 35 games was fueled by a .398 BABIP, a number not supported in any way by his batted-ball metrics. In fact, Mountcastle's xBA was nearly 70 points below his actual BA, the third-greatest differential between expected and actual average. It's encouraging that he crushed same-handed pitching; hopefully the landing will be fine with some gains against lefties. Mountcastle will have dual eligibility in many leagues as he made 10 appearances at first base in addition to 25 in the outfield. The fact he plays at Camden Yards helps the appeal of his compiler profile.

Mountcastle is a prime example of why team context matters when valuing prospects for dynasty leagues. On any contending team or National League team with solid depth, he wouldn't be assured an audition as a regular. However, Baltimore gave Dwight Smith (-0.8 fWAR) almost 400 plate appearances last year, so Mountcastle should be given regular playing time for several years despite his obvious deficiencies. He is a below-average defender in left field, but that won't stop the O's from giving him time there while also giving him starts as the designated hitter. With a potentially plus hit tool and 4.3 BB% at Triple-A, Mountcastle is much more valuable in AVG leagues than OBP leagues. He could be a 25-homer threat, thanks in part to his home park, but won't be a threat on the bases. It's not an exciting fantasy profile, but he could spend most of 2020 hitting in the top half of the big-league lineup.

Mountcastle flopped in a 39-game run at Double-A to close 2017, but mastered the level in a return trip. Among qualified Eastern League hitters under 22, only Ke'Bryan Hayes and Brendan Rodgers topped Mountcastle's 121 wRC+. If he were a quality defensive third baseman, the profile would be straightforward, as he should hit enough to profile at the hot corner. Unfortunately, he will likely have to move to left field or DH, which means his bat (potentially plus hit tool with above-average power) needs to max out. Mountcastle's 6.1 BB% was the eighth-worst mark in the Eastern League, but he makes contact at a high clip (18.5 K%) and uses the whole field. A reasonable outcome would be a .280 hitter who hits 20-25 home runs. Fantasy managers would take that production, but if it comes with a low walk rate and below-average defense, most big-league teams would be unsatisfied. Fortunately, the Orioles are not most big-league teams.

Mountcastle had more home runs (18) than walks (17) in 2017, but was still able to break out as a legitimate fantasy prospect thanks to his innate bat-to-ball ability. He led the Carolina League with a .314 average while ranking fifth in home runs (15) and eighth in strikeout rate (16.1 percent), all while being one of the 10 youngest hitters in the league and playing just 88 games prior to a promotion to Double-A. The breakout party came to a screeching halt in the Eastern League, as his walk rate dropped to 1.9 percent, he became much more pull happy (54.8 percent), and simply put too many pitcher's pitches in play. He will head back to Double-A for his age-21 season, with plenty of time to make adjustments at the plate. Evaluators still see a hitter with the potential to flirt with .300 and provide 20-plus homer pop. Unfortunately, he is a below-average runner and doesn't have the arm for shortstop or third base, so left field makes the most sense long term.

Mountcastle was viewed by many as a reach at No. 36 overall in the 2015 first-year player draft, but if he puts it all together, he could be a major league regular at shortstop in three or four years. Standing 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Mountcastle was touted for his raw power coming out of high school, but that raw power did not translate during his first calendar year in professional ball. He slugged just .393 between rookie ball and Low-A Aberdeen in 2015 and managed one home run over the first two months of 2016. Finally, Mountcastle began to put the ball over the fence in June and went on to hit nine homers over the final three months of his age-19 season. He'll need to develop a keener eye and make more consistent contact to have success at the upper levels, and speed is not a part of the package. Still, Mountcastle deserves to be monitored by those in long-term keeper leagues.

The Orioles used a 2015 compensatory pick on Mountcastle. They may have reached a bit in order to sign him under slot, though Mountcastle was a late blooming prospect whose reputation grew only over the year before he was drafted. Mountcastle is widely regarded to possess superior bat speed and profiles with above-average power. As with most players out of high school, Mountcastle's power may not be present, but he is expected to add more muscle over the next few seasons. It will not be surprising to see him retain a higher than average BABIP the way the ball jumps off his bat. Mountcastle started his professional career as a shortstop, but his defense probably will not be enough to stay put and he could move to third base or a corner outfield spot. He posted respectable numbers in Rookie League, earning a 10-game cameo in short-season ball. The Orioles are high on Mountcastle and he is advanced enough to be able to begin the 2016 season at Low-A.

More Fantasy News

Not starting Thursday

1BBaltimore Orioles

September 26, 2024

Mountcastle isn't in Baltimore's lineup for Thursday's game against the Yankees.

ANALYSIS
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Back from injured list Tuesday

1BBaltimore Orioles

September 24, 2024

The Orioles reinstated Mountcastle (wrist) from the 10-day injured list Tuesday.

ANALYSIS
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Starting rehab assignment

1BBaltimore Orioles

Wrist

September 20, 2024

Mountcastle (wrist) reported to Triple-A Norfolk to begin a rehab assignment Friday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.

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Nearing rehab assignment

1BBaltimore Orioles

Wrist

September 17, 2024

Orioles general manager Mike Elias said Tuesday that Mountcastle (wrist) is expected to begin a rehab assignment by the end of the week and could return from the 10-day injured list before the end of the regular season, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.

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Uncertain timeline for return

1BBaltimore Orioles

Wrist

September 9, 2024

Manager Brandon Hyde relayed Monday that he wasn't sure when Mountcastle (wrist) would return from the 10-day injured list, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Trade not expected

1BBaltimore Orioles

October 30, 2024

Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com expects Mountcastle to remain with the Orioles through the offseason.

ANALYSIS
Mountcastle broke out in 2021 with 33 homers but has struggled to replicate that power and stay healthy over the past few seasons. The 27-year-old has still provided an above-average bat with a 110 wRC+ across the last three years, but the deepening and raising of the left-field fence at Camden Yards has dampened his power production. An offseason trade doesn't appear overly likely, but a change of scenery could give him a chance to push for 30 home runs once again.

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