Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

26-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Tampa Bay Rays
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Lowe came into the 2023 draft season surrounded with the usual uncertain playing time which clouds outlooks of Tampa Bay players but finished the season as the 12th-best fantasy outfielder. We knew Lowe could steal bags as he swiped them at an 88% success rate dating back to 2019 and at a 96% rate (54 of 56) over the previous two seasons heading into 2023. Lowe not only made the opening day roster, but he went 32 of 35 stealing bases while throwing in 20 homers and a solid .292 batting average. Lowe's overall numbers took a hit in July when he went through a massive slump which saw him hit .197 with a 34% strikeout rate and we later learned he and his family were dealing with some unfortunate medical news regarding his mom's health. Lowe rebounded nicely to finish the season and should find himself in the upper half of the lineup on a more regular basis in 2024 to take full advantage of his baserunning acumen. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#174
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Rays in March of 2024.
Out against left-hander
OFTampa Bay Rays
September 24, 2024
Lowe is not in the lineup for Tuesday's contest in Detroit.
ANALYSIS
With southpaw Tarik Skubal on the hill for the Tigers, the left-handed-hitting Lowe will begin the festivities on the bench. Jonny DeLuca will patrol right field for the Rays.
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Batting Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
12
5
39
22
11
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
1
2
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+46%
OPS vs RHP
2024
 
 
+31%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+20%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+173%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022vs Left .538 163 15 2 14 5 .193 .252 .287
Since 2022vs Right .784 923 117 30 116 55 .273 .325 .459
2024vs Left .547 50 3 0 3 3 .222 .280 .267
2024vs Right .715 337 34 10 31 22 .244 .306 .409
2023vs Left .712 67 9 2 10 2 .238 .284 .429
2023vs Right .854 434 62 18 73 30 .300 .343 .511
2022vs Left .269 46 3 0 1 0 .095 .174 .095
2022vs Right .735 152 21 2 12 3 .259 .318 .417
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2022
 
 
+15%
OPS on Road
2024
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2023
 
 
+20%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2022Home .693 505 55 7 44 33 .253 .306 .388
Since 2022Away .795 581 77 25 86 27 .268 .322 .473
2024Home .662 170 15 1 8 16 .240 .312 .351
2024Away .717 217 22 9 26 9 .241 .295 .422
2023Home .752 218 26 5 27 15 .282 .307 .445
2023Away .902 283 45 15 56 17 .300 .357 .545
2022Home .620 117 14 1 9 2 .212 .293 .327
2022Away .635 81 10 1 4 1 .234 .272 .364
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Stat Review
How does Josh Lowe compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.26
 
BB Rate
8.3%
 
K Rate
31.8%
 
BABIP
.338
 
ISO
.150
 
AVG
.241
 
OBP
.302
 
SLG
.391
 
OPS
.693
 
wOBA
.302
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
33.5%
 
Barrels/PA
6.2%
 
Expected BA
.228
 
Expected SLG
.388
 
Sprint Speed
24.0 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
36.2%
 
Line Drive %
22.0%
 
Fly Ball %
41.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2018
2017
Lowe is a well-seasoned minor leaguer with lots of production fueled by a friendly Durham Athletic Park, but he has exactly 200 major league plate appearances over the past two season with little to write home about. Some of the limitation are the typical contract stalling techniques Tampa Bay is well known for, but some of Lowe's issues are of his own doing. He has had some issues in the field, which is not a good thing for a team that puts a premium on outfield defense. Lowe has also had a very similar issue to his older brother Nathaniel in struggles with good velocity up in the zone. The power numbers in Triple-A should not be the focus as much as the walk rate and his stolen base prowess as that is where his value truly lies. Lowe is 84 of his last 95 in stolen base attempts (88%) and has a top 50 home-to-first speed just .01 behind Oneil Cruz. The club will want to get that talent in the lineup somewhere but his defense and bat will need to earn it because the outfield depth chart is still thick even with the departure of Kiermaier.
Lowe put the finishing touches on his minor-league development last season, logging a career-best slash line (.291/.381/.535) and wRC+ (142) while doing his typical damage on the bases (26-for-26) and reaching a new level in the power department (22 HR, .244 ISO) in 111 games. Now he just needs an opening in the Rays outfield. In last year's outlook we noted that Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, and Kiermaier remains under contract for one more season at the time of the lockout. The Rays are often active in the offseason trade market, so it's difficult to predict how things will shake out. That may mean that Lowe is a shrewd target with an ADP outside the top 350 in NFBC Draft Champions leagues, as he could be going 100 spots higher if there were a clear path to playing time, and it sure seems like he's ready. In addition to plus power and plus-plus speed, Lowe is a plus defender in center field with a plus arm. An athletic 6-foot-4 specimen, Lowe will always have some holes in his swing, but he takes his walks and could go 20/20 as early as this year with over 500 plate appearances.
Lowe spent his age-22 season at the Rays' alternate training site, where he was the team's best outfield defender. He would have spent most of a normal season at Triple-A, which is where he will be assigned to start 2021. As a lefty-hitting center fielder, Lowe is the heir apparent to Kevin Kiermaier, who is under contract through 2022. Lowe may already be a better all-around player than Kiermaier, so he should unseat him sooner than later, especially now that he is on the 40-man roster. Long, lean and athletic, Lowe had success at Double-A (128 wRC+) and in the Arizona Fall League (.937 OPS) in 2019, even amid some swing and miss issues (25.4 K% at Double-A, 27.6 K% in the AFL). He has shown a propensity to take his walks and is undeniably more valuable in OBP leagues. The big draw for fantasy, however, is Lowe's potential to go 20/20, even if he sits against most lefties.
The younger, more dynamic brother of Nate Lowe, Josh is a good center fielder with the power/speed to go 25/25 in a full MLB season. There is no evidence he will ever hit for a very high batting average, but with walk rates north of 10% at High-A and Double-A, a middling AVG may not matter much in real life or in OBP/points leagues. Including a red-hot run in the Arizona Fall League to close the year, Lowe hit .277/.356/.474 with nine home runs, 16 steals (on 18 attempts), a 10.8 BB% and 24.5 K% in 69 games from July on. Standing 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, Lowe should remain a plus athlete into his late-20s. He uses the whole field and his 35.4 GB% at Double-A was elite. In terms of true center fielders, Lowe is clearly the next man up behind Kevin Kiermaier on the organizational depth chart. Kiermaier (1.5 fWAR in 2019) is under contract through 2022, but Lowe could unseat him as the everyday option by 2021.
For a toolsy 19-year-old in his first year in a full-season league, Lowe emerged with a passing grade. His overall line doesn't stand out, but he was slightly above league average (102 wRC+) and was able to show off his plus speed (22-for-30 on stolen-base attempts) while transitioning from third base to the outfield. He had an impressive finish to the season, hitting .307/.373/.425 over his final 255 plate appearances, but a .415 BABIP was largely responsible for that. So far his plus raw power has not shown up consistently in games, but at 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, he should tap into a bit more pop as he gets used to more advanced pitching and gets more professional instruction. While his 28.4 percent strikeout rate was not ideal, his all-fields approach was very impressive. He almost hit as many balls to the opposite field (36.1 percent) as he did to the pull side (37.1 percent). Lowe has yet to fully break out, so he should be easily attainable in dynasty leagues, which is an odd thing to say about a high-pedigree hitting prospect with 20-20 potential.
The Rays' top pick of 2016 started the season with the Gulf Coast League Rays before a promotion to Princeton of the rookie Appalachian League, where he acquitted himself reasonably well over 100 plate appearances. The speedster tallied a trio of triples overall on the season, and although he only hit five homers over 214 plate appearances overall, he is thought to have plenty to offer in the power department going forward. Lowe sports a 6-foot-4 frame that should accommodate plenty of added bulk, which will only help his overall long-term fantasy prospects. While he's quite a ways off from the big league level, he's laden with potential as a possible five-tool player.
More Fantasy News
Tallies 10th homer
OFTampa Bay Rays
September 18, 2024
Lowe went 2-for-4 with a solo home run and two runs scored Tuesday against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting versus southpaw
OFTampa Bay Rays
September 9, 2024
Lowe is absent from the lineup for Monday's game in Philadelphia.
ANALYSIS
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Nabs two more bases
OFTampa Bay Rays
September 4, 2024
Lowe went 1-for-3 with a walk and two stolen bases Tuesday against the Twins.
ANALYSIS
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Swipes 19th bag in loss
OFTampa Bay Rays
September 2, 2024
Lowe went 2-for-4 with a stolen base and a run scored in Monday's 5-4 loss to the Twins.
ANALYSIS
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Swats ninth homer
OFTampa Bay Rays
August 28, 2024
Lowe went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Wednesday's 6-2 loss to the Mariners.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not untouchable?
OFTampa Bay Rays
July 20, 2023
Lowe could be an outgoing piece if the Rays pursues a Shohei Ohtani trade, speculates Jim Bowden of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
Lowe is amid a breakout season, slashing .275.317/.491 with 13 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his age-25 campaign. An Ohtani acquisition would be nearly unprecedented, prompting Bowden to note that Tampa Bay "might be willing to add a major-league player...to get a deal done."
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