Farm Futures: Post-Draft Top 400 Update

The top 400 prospect rankings are fully updated! I'm sure most traditionalists like the official offseason update the most, the one that appears in the RotoWire magazine, but I think this is arguably the most useful update of the year. It features 54 prospects from this most recent draft class. We've also had a large enough sample in full-season leagues to start heavily weighing players' performances, both good and bad. If that weren't enough, the Arizona and Florida complex leagues and the Dominican Summer League are all underway.

In this article, I will be providing thoughts on some players that I found most interesting as well as an updated chart ranking the recent draftees. As always, you can ask me questions about any prospects in the comments section of this article or on Twitter.

NOTABLE MOVERS

With Alek Manoah graduating, there are now 30 hitting prospects ranked ahead of the top pitching prospect (Grayson Rodriguez). There are only five pitchers (Rodriguez, Max Meyer, George Kirby, Shane Baz, Cade Cavalli) in the top 50 and 24 pitchers in the top 100.

Robert Hassell, Tyler Soderstrom and Pedro Leon have joined that second tier of elite hitting prospects. Hassell (No. 14) looks like a five-category contributor in the making. Soderstrom (No. 16) has one of the sweetest swings in the minors and I expect him to eventually move off catcher in order to maximize his offensive output. Leon has been on a tear over the last six-plus weeks and has mega power/speed potential. Leon and Bobby Witt both earned the promotion to Triple-A on Sunday, which sets the stage for each player to try to earn a call-up to the majors. It would be unwise to bank on a promotion and strong fantasy production from either player this year, but they are each talented enough that anything can happen.

Jordan Walker, Angel Martinez, Reginald Preciado, Anthony Volpe, Jose Miranda and Masyn Winn were big risers and are worth scooping up in shallower leagues where they're still available. Preciado, the centerpiece of the Yu Darvish trade, could be this year's standout in the Arizona Complex League. Winn seems to be particularly under the radar at the moment. Before last year's draft, I noted that Winn would be one of my favorite prospects in the class if I knew he'd be developed solely as a shortstop, and that seems to be what's happening. He has a chance to be a 20-homer/30-steal shortstop if he hits enough, and the former right-handed pitcher obviously has one of the best shortstop arms in the minors.

Mark Vientos and Brayan Rocchio, two incredibly different infielders, were also big risers inside the top 80. Vientos (37.0 Hard%) has long had the look of a projectable power-hitting third baseman, but he is finally making good on that promise this year, while Rocchio's bat has been heating up after an aggressive assignment to High-A.

I have no idea what's going on with Simeon Woods Richardson (10.18 ERA over his last five starts). His ranking at No. 79 is a half measure, and I'm hoping that I can bump him back up on the next update, but if his struggles continue, he'll soon be outside the top 100.

Tanner Houck was a priority add for me in some 15-team mixed leagues Sunday night, and while I don't trust him enough to start him against the Blue Jays this week, I think he's got a chance to be a big difference maker in the second half.

Justin Foscue and Ezequiel Tovar were big risers inside the top 100. Foscue has been on a power rampage at High-A and should soon get a real test with an assignment to Double-A. Tovar has shown impressive power and contact skill as a 19-year-old at Low-A. While the Rockies instruct all their hitting prospects to steal as many bases as they can, Tovar actually has enough speed to project as a 20-steal guy in the majors.

Oneil Cruz and DL Hall would both rank higher were it not for their current injuries, both of which could lead to Tommy John surgery.

There has been a renaissance of catcher prospects this summer. Typically I will not rank catching prospects highly unless they really force my hand, and they have done just that. It's possible that not all of these players will stick at catcher, but there are now nine catchers in the top 150 and seven inside the top 100. Adley Rutschman, Tyler Soderstrom, Francisco Alvarez, Henry Davis, Gabriel Moreno, Austin Wells, Keibert Ruiz, Diego Cartaya and MJ Melendez are all so gifted offensively that I'm inclined to bet on them hitting enough to provide significant fantasy value. The predicament with Dodgers catchers is one I've mentioned on the Prospect Podcast. Ruiz and Cartaya are really, really good, and the Dodgers are really, really smart, so I'm betting they'll either find ways to play two or three of them enough for them to provide fantasy value or they will deal one of them for an impact player.

I stuck up for Luisangel Acuna (No. 93) this past offseason while he was an en vogue prospect to hate on as being overrated for his last name. Since June 1, he is hitting .355/.440/.518 with four home runs and 19 steals. Just because he's not going to be the same type of player as his older brother doesn't mean he's not a good prospect in his own right. I could seem him being a leadoff hitter who hits 10-15 home runs with around 20 steals, a high average and a solid OBP.

JJ Bleday (No. 104) has been a career .220/.310/.345 hitter in the minors and he has played at age-appropriate levels. I think it's fair to wonder if he's just not that good.

Jake Burger (No. 124) has been one of the best stories in baseball this year. Prior to this year, Burger had played in just 51 games since being drafted in 2017, due to multiple Achilles injuries, which makes his productivity this year all the more impressive.

Matt Manning (No. 129) might be the toughest prospect to rank. He has been flat out bad at Triple-A and the majors since dealing with an arm injury last summer that never got operated on. He might just be broken.

Outside of the top 115 or so, there is a ton of fluidity in the rankings. This is particularly true of the players in rookie ball. Arol Vera (No. 122) or Victor Acosta (No. 191) could climb 50 spots or drop 50 spots in the span of the next two weeks. Each week's worth of games is a significant data point for all of these young hitters we're seeing play professionally for the first time.

THE NEW DRAFTEES

I wrote the analysis on the vast majority of the draft notes on the players who cracked the top 400, so if you want my detailed thoughts, that's a good place to look. In the coming months, I will be finalizing a top-100 set of rankings for first-year player drafts, but in the meantime, here are the 54 draftees who cracked the top 400: