Farm Futures: NL Central Top 10s

This marks the second installment of this year's top-10 prospect rankings in each organization, continuing with the teams in the National League Central. These rankings will be updated throughout the season on RotoWire.com when players switch organizations, lose their rookie eligibility, or when a player's development dictates a change in where they are ranked within their team's system.

Please feel free to start a dialogue in the comments section below, or @RealJRAnderson Twitter.

Rank, Name, Position, Age On 4/1/16, Projected Level For Start Of 2016

Chicago Cubs
1. Ian Happ, 2B/OF, 21, High-A
2. Billy McKinney, OF, 21, Double-A
3. Gleyber Torres, SS, 19, High-A
4. Daniel Vogelbach, 1B/DH, 23, Triple-A
5. Duane Underwood, RHP, 21, Double-A
6. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF, 21, Rookie ball
7. Willson Contreras, C, 23, Triple-A
8. Eloy Jimenez, OF, 19, Low-A
9. Pierce Johnson, RHP, 24, Triple-A
10. Albert Almora, OF, 21, Triple-A

Overview:

Conventional wisdom would suggest that a farm system that graduated Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez over the past two years might be hurting for talent. That may be the case at the top of the system, but Theo Epstein and company still have one of the deepest systems in the game, thanks to excellent drafting and aggressive activity in the international market. In Happ, McKinney, Torres and Vogelbach there might be four plus hit tools at the top of the system, but only Vogelbach has a second plus offensive tool (power), so while all four could be useful mixed league options in time, there probably isn't a star in the bunch. Underwood has a No. 2 ceiling and at worst he'll be a No. 3 with good ratios and middling strikeout numbers. Martinez and Jimenez could be the big jumpers on the hitting side, as a strong 2016 could place both outfielders in the top-50 of dynasty league prospect rankings next year. Almora and Contreras have limited fantasy upside, but they are both relatively close to the majors and could fill needs for the Cubs. Dylan Cease, Oscar De La Cruz and Mark Zagunis were difficult exclusions, and reasonable minds could put all three in the Cubs' top-10, but the risk with Cease and De La Cruz, along with the lack of ceiling with Zagunis kept them off in the end.

Most Upside:Ian Happ - I went back and forth on whether to put Martinez or Happ here, and settled on the one with professional at-bats already under his belt, as evaluations on Martinez are relatively inconsistent. If Happ were to move to second base, he is easily the call here, as he could go 20/20 and hit .280, but even as an outfielder that is still enough production to garner OF2 status. Happ should be the fourth player from last year's draft class selected in dynasty league drafts this year after Andrew Benintendi, Dansby Swanson and Brendan Rodgers.

Best Bet For 2016:Willson Contreras - This is a perfect example of how difficult it is to rank catching prospects. Contreras is a fairly safe bet to stick at the position, and hit for a relatively high average, possibly as soon as this summer. He will get on base at a high clip, and offer solid defense behind the plate, and yet, there may not be much in terms of counting stats. If Contreras played any other position he would not be a top-200 prospect and would not figure into the Cubs' long-term plans. However, in today's offensive wasteland at the catcher position, a player who offers Francisco Cervelli-like production at the plate has value in mixed leagues. Those who are extremely optimistic about Contreras' bat might even see some similarities to Jonathan Lucroy's offensive profile. As for this season, Contreras is the de facto choice, as it's possible we don't see anyone else on this list until September. If Miguel Montero were to suffer an injury, or struggle at the plate the way he did in 2013 and 2014, Contreras could feasibly take over the primary catching duties in the second half, but odds are he will settle into the backup role during his rookie season. This means he is more of a watch list candidate in most mixed leagues.

Cincinnati Reds
1. Jesse Winker, OF, 22, Triple-A
2.Cody Reed, LHP, 22, Triple-A
3. Jose Peraza, 2B, 21, MLB
4. Robert Stephenson, RHP, 23, Triple-A
5. Amir Garrett, LHP, 23, Double-A
6. Keury Mella, RHP, 22, Double-A
7. Alex Blandino, 2B/SS, 23, Double-A
8. Tyler Stephenson, C, 19, Low-A
9. Nick Travieso, RHP, 22, Double-A
10. Phillip Ervin, OF, 23, Double-A

Overview:

The Reds have improved their farm system over the past eight months, but they really screwed up by waiting so long to jump head first into their rebuild. The hauls they received for Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman could have been far better if they had moved those two players last season, and they probably waited a little too long on Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake as well, though I still like both of those returns a lot. This is a borderline top-10 system in baseball, and there are a number of players who should make an impact at the big league level in 2016 and 2017. In Reed, Stephenson, Garrett and Mella the Reds have four high-upside pitching prospects who are relatively close to the big leagues. Reed is the only one without much bullpen risk, but they all have the potential to be No. 2 starters if everything breaks right, granted with Stephenson and Mella, that is a big if. Winker and Peraza are safe hitting prospects who are close to the big leagues, but neither has superstar potential. Blandino is similar in terms of a high floor and low upside, though he is a little further away from the majors. Stephenson, the prep catcher the Reds selected in the first round last year, comes with all the standard disclaimers that accompany young catching prospects in the lower levels, but he also has as much offensive upside as any catching prospect in the minors, thanks to a plus power profile. Travieso is a low-upside arm with the chance to make it as a No. 3, but he's more likely a No. 4, and can be ignored for now in leagues that don't roster 150-plus prospects. This might be Ervin's last year to prove he's a legitimate prospect, as he has underwhelmed at every stop since the year he was drafted, but there is too much multi-category potential to give up on him yet.

Most Upside:Robert Stephenson - My biggest issue with most prospect rankings is the refusal to properly ding high-upside pitchers with major command issues. Obviously Stephenson has a couple elite pitches in his heater and curve, but he now has 287.1 innings under his belt in the upper levels of the minors, and his walk rate remains unsustainably high for a starting pitcher. Maybe he could make it as a No. 3 starter who gets plenty of Ks, but he is also a WHIP liability, and at that point I wonder if he wouldn't be more valuable as a relief ace. For that reason, he is my dark horse pick to lead the Reds in saves in 2016. They probably won't go down that route with him entering his age-23 season, as teams often hold onto the starter dream longer than they should, but it definitely seems like a long shot that Stephenson actualizes his immense potential and becomes the frontline starter the Reds were hoping for. Now might be the last opportunity to get a top-50 prospect back for Stephenson in dynasty leagues. All that said, there is still a non-zero chance that Stephenson becomes an ace.

Best Bet For 2016:Jose Peraza - Peraza is worth a gamble, as he is currently the 23rd second baseman going in NFBC drafts (286 overall), and if he plays every day, he is a good bet to finish in the top-10 at the position. The problem is, it's hard to find a way for him to get everyday at-bats if nothing changes between now and the end of spring training. Considering he was the prize in the Todd Frazier deal, it would make sense for him to get the edge over guys like Zack Cozart and Brandon Phillips, just given the state of the franchise, but I don't necessarily trust the manager or the front office to bench either veteran. Peraza can handle both middle infield positions, but he fits best at second base. He will hit for a high average, thanks to good contact skills and plus-plus speed, and should be a shoo-in for 35-plus steals over a full season, but it remains to be seen if that season will be 2016 or 2017.

Milwaukee Brewers
1. Orlando Arcia, SS, 21, Triple-A
2. Brett Phillips, OF, 21, Double-A
3. Jorge Lopez, RHP, 23, Triple-A
4. Trent Clark, OF, 19, Low-A
5. Josh Hader, LHP, 21, Triple-A
6. Gilbert Lara, SS/3B, 18, Low-A
7. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, 19, High-A
8. Devin Williams, RHP, 21, High-A
9. Isan Diaz, SS, 19, Low-A
10. Demi Orimoloye, OF, 19, Low-A

Overview:

No team has injected more talent into its minor league system over the past 20 months than the Brewers. In fact, of the players on this list, only Arcia, Lopez and Williams have been in the system for more than two years. International signings, excellent drafting and keen trades have Milwaukee poised to be a competitive club perhaps as soon as 2017, with a chance to be a playoff team in 2019 or 2020, even in the grinder that is the NL Central. There is a great mix of high-upside and high-floor players in this system, as well as a very complementary mix of pitching and hitting talent. Many in the industry feel that the southpaws on this list, Hader and Medeiros, are destined for the bullpen, but I come out on the more optimistic side with both guys. Clint Coulter, Monte Harrison, Rymer Liriano, Cody Ponce, Nathan Kirby, Marcos Diplan, Tyrone Taylor and Zach Davies, among others, would have all slotted in somewhere near the top of this list in prior years, and their exclusion just speaks to the system's depth.

Most Upside:Gilbert Lara - There is a very wide range of outcomes for Lara's prospect stock in 2016. He will embark on his first assignment to a full-season league, and if he hits, this is a guy who has the potential to be the biggest riser on prospect lists this season. He has the frame and tools to project as a third baseman (I can't imagine he'll stick at shortstop) who hits third or fourth in a big league lineup and contributes a little in steals in his first few seasons in the league. He could also struggle mightily against Low-A pitching and be sent back to the Pioneer League, much like Monte Harrison last year. In the search for a prospect outside of every top-50 that could be in every top-10 this time next year, Lara is one of a few names that come to mind, so he is worth a gamble in all formats where at least 100 prospects are rostered.

Best Bet For 2016:Orlando Arcia/Jorge Lopez (tie) - There are a number of players in this system who will have a chance to contribute in 2016, including Hader, Liriano, Taylor, Davies, Keon Broxton, Garin Cecchini, Michael Reed and Yadiel Rivera, but Lopez and Arcia offer the best combination of upside and proximity. Both players may have to wait until May or June to join the fray, but they are both very close to big league ready. Prior to the Jean Segura trade, I had my doubts about Arcia's ability to contribute this season, but now it seems inevitable that he will force the issue in the first half, with only Jonathan Villar in his way. He has the potential to hit for a high average with 20-plus steals right away, meaning he could be a top-10 option at the position from his debut date onward. Lopez may be a bit of a WHIP risk initially, but something in the 1.25-1.30 range should be doable. He should also offer close to a strikeout per inning, and he could be this year's Joe Ross, a guy who was not on the radar of many owners who typically stick to single-season leagues, but ends up offering 75-plus innings of SP3-SP4 value. Less prospect-savvy owners in deeper leagues will roll the dice on stashing more well-known pitching prospects like Julio Urias and Robert Stephenson, but Lopez is a better bet for production in 2016.

Pittsburgh Pirates
1. Tyler Glasnow, LHP, 22, Triple-A
2. Josh Bell, 1B, 23, Triple-A
3. Austin Meadows, OF, 20, Double-A
4. Jameson Taillon, RHP, 24, Triple-A
5. Alen Hanson, 2B, 23, Triple-A
6. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, 19, Low-A
7. Harold Ramirez, OF, 21, Double-A
8. Yeudy Garcia, RHP, 23, High-A
9. Cole Tucker, SS, 19, High-A
10. Stephen Tarpley, RHP, 23, High-A

Overview:

The Pirates have a lot of depth in their system, which always seems to be the case under GM Neal Huntington. By now it should be pretty clear to our readers that I am lower on Meadows than perhaps anyone in the industry, just because I don't buy into the impact potential in home runs or steals. He will hit for a high average and could hit first or second in certain lineups if the Pirates end up trading him at some point, but this is not a potential star, and it seems that he gets treated that way by many in dynasty leagues. Bell is probably my favorite player in the system, relative to his perceived value at the outset of 2016, as he will hit for power to all fields, and will get on base at close to a .400 clip, meaning he could hit third or fourth for the Pirates by 2017. Taillon is the big unknown, as injuries have kept him out of game action for two years. He could be a big contributor for the Pirates this season, or he could do nothing of note and fall into prospect obscurity. I still hold out hope that he gets back on track and re-establishes a fairly safe floor as a No. 3 starter. Hanson is a great speed option late in single-season drafts, as the Neil Walker trade and Jung-Ho Kang's knee injury offer an opening for playing time in the middle infield, but don't look for him to be much of an asset in batting average or runs, as he will hit near the bottom of the order. Ramirez is basically Meadows with even less power projection, while Hayes and Tucker offer intriguing options on the left side of the infield for three or four years down the road. Tarpley has four pitches, including a mid-90s fastball, which is a pretty compelling starter kit for an athletic southpaw. Nick Kingham, Willy Garcia, Jordan Luplow, Kevin Newman and Mitch Keller were all in the mix for the No. 10 spot in the system, but the first nine spots were pretty concrete.

Most Upside/Best Bet For 2016:Tyler Glasnow - If Bell's game power was close to where I expect it to be in a couple years, he would be the pick here for 2016 value because I anticipate Bell beating Glasnow to the majors, but Glasnow is closer to his fantasy ceiling right now. I think the likelihood of him becoming an ace gets oversold in the prospect community, but he should have no problem being at least a high-end No. 3, and he'll probably have some years where the production is SP2 quality. He strike out over 200 batters in his full seasons, thanks to a plus-plus fastball and a plus curveball. It also helps that he is 6-foot-7, so he can pitch downhill to hitters, and the ball seems faster coming out of his hand because he is closer to the plate when he releases it. That said, if he doesn't improve his command, Glasnow will always be a little behind other starters with similar stuff in the WHIP category. Look for him to join the Pirates' rotation in June unless an injury forces them to bring him up a little sooner. Thanks to a first half ETA, Glasnow should be the third pitching prospect selected in single-season leagues behind Steven Matz and Jose Berrios.

St. Louis Cardinals
1. Alex Reyes, RHP, 21, Double-A
2. Jack Flaherty, RHP, 20, High-A
3. Tim Cooney, LHP, 25, Triple-A
4. Edmundo Sosa, SS, 20, Low-A
5. Luke Weaver, RHP, 22, Double-A
6. Magneuris Sierra, OF, 19, Low-A
7. Nick Plummer, OF, 19, Low-A
8. Harrison Bader, OF, 21, High-A
9. Charlie Tilson, OF, 23, Triple-A
10. Marco Gonzales, LHP, 24, Triple-A

Overview:

There's Reyes, and then there is everyone else in this system. Flaherty, Cooney, Weaver and Gonzales all have the realistic ceiling of a No. 3 starter, with the downside of being a No. 4 or even a No. 5 in Weaver and Gonzales' cases. Pitchers like that are useful in deep dynasty leagues, but they are also easy to part with if a player with more risk/upside comes along. I like Sosa plenty, as he should stick at shortstop and hit enough to be useful in most formats, but he isn't going to be a top-5 player at the position, and it is a stretch to suggest he'll ever be a top-10 fantasy shortstop, as he lacks above average power or speed. Throw in the fact that he's at least three years away from the big leagues, and it's easy to ignore him in shallower formats. Sierra and Plummer have a ton of upside, but they are different players. Sierra is all speed and athleticism, and he is still figuring it out at the plate. Plummer has much more polish, and is perhaps a little too patient at the plate, but he has average or better offensive tools across the board, so he should be among the first 20 players from last year's draft selected in dynasty leagues this year. Bader could be a little under the radar after slipping to the Cardinals in the third round last year, but he can rake and he's got a little speed as well. He could push his way up to Double-A this summer, and if he can handle the arms at that level, everyone will need to take him seriously as a legit top-100 prospect. Tilson is a speed and batting average center fielder who is close to the majors, but he may have a better shot if he gets dealt to another organization. He will really have to hit at Triple-A this year in order to get a shot at regular at-bats with the Cardinals down the road, but if he does, Ben Revere-esque numbers are on the table.

Most Upside:Alex Reyes - In almost any size dynasty league, I would rather have Reyes than the rest of the players in the Cardinals' system combined. He has SP1 potential and is the No. 3 pitching prospect in baseball behind Lucas Giolito and Julio Urias. If Reyes had 250-plus strikeouts in 2018 or 2019 I wouldn't blink. The stuff is electric, and minor improvements to his changeup and command would establish a floor as a No. 2 starter. Look for him to join the club in September, as he will spend the rest of the year serving a marijuana suspension and adjusting to Triple-A hitters. Depending on the team's need, Reyes could simply be used out of the bullpen this year.

Best Bet For 2016:Tim Cooney - It would be defensible to have Gonzales in this spot, but from the rankings, it's clear that I have a preference out of the team's two most advanced pitching prospects. Cooney really hasn't failed yet at the big league level, and considering he debuted with a realistic floor as a back-end starter, he looks safer than ever heading into 2016. That said, the team's signing of Mike Leake all but assures that Cooney will start the year at Triple-A, meaning he will need an injury to begin to return a profit for his owners. I'd take Cooney over Gonzales and Tyler Lyons if making a speculative sixth starter play in St. Louis, and aside from Leake, there is average or better injury potential with every starter currently penciled into the rotation, so it seems inevitable that Conney will get into the mix at some point.