Mitch Keller

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Pittsburgh Pirates

2024 Stats

W-L

11-12

ERA

4.25

WHIP

1.30

166

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Keller earned his first career All-Star nod in 2023 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 19 starts during the first half, but he fell apart after the break with a 5.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 13 outings. The good news is that the right-hander stayed mostly healthy and set a career high with 194.1 innings, and he also improved his strikeout rate to 25.5 percent and walk rate to 6.7 percent. Keller also may have received some unfortunate results, as indicated by a 3.83 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP compared to a 4.21 ERA. Despite the struggles down the stretch in 2023, it's a season to build on as he enters his age-28 campaign. Keller certainly shouldn't be the ace of a staff but is a strong option to round out a rotation for fantasy managers in 2024, especially if he can maintain the decent strikeout and win (13) totals. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#263

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 205

DOB 4/4/1996

Born Cedar Rapids, IA

College None

Drafted 2nd Rd 2014 PIT

Drops third straight

PPittsburgh Pirates

September 26, 2024

Keller (11-12) took the loss Thursday against the Brewers, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out six.

ANALYSIS
Keller got off to a solid start, holding Milwaukee to one run through his first four innings, before giving up two more in the fifth. The 28-year-old Keller would ultimately take his third straight loss and fifth in his last six outings. After an encouraging start to the year, Keller faded down the stretch, posting a 7.29 ERA in his final nine starts (45.2 innings). Keller will wrap up the season with a 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 166:50 K:BB across 178 innings.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-5%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-5%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-4%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-7%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.265	1160	266	94	277	63	10	37
Since 2022vs Right	.251	1125	248	71	254	41	5	25
2024vs Left	.268	400	96	23	99	21	7	16
2024vs Right	.254	373	70	27	83	17	4	7
2023vs Left	.253	430	115	37	98	26	2	16
2023vs Right	.244	395	95	18	89	12	0	9
2022vs Left	.276	330	55	34	80	16	1	5
2022vs Right	.257	357	83	26	82	12	1	9
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-36%

ERA at Home

2024

-44%

ERA at Home

2023

-46%

ERA at Home

2022

-10%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.23	1.21	267.2	13	15	0	8.2	2.7	0.8
Since 2022Away	5.05	1.41	263.2	16	18	0	9.3	2.9	1.3
2024Home	3.08	1.17	90.2	5	5	0	8.5	2.3	0.8
2024Away	5.46	1.44	87.1	6	7	0	8.2	2.8	1.5
2023Home	2.90	1.06	90.0	7	3	0	8.4	2.3	0.9
2023Away	5.35	1.41	104.1	6	6	0	10.9	2.8	1.4
2022Home	3.72	1.40	87.0	1	7	0	7.6	3.5	0.8
2022Away	4.13	1.39	72.0	4	5	0	8.1	3.3	0.8
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Stat Review

How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.32

K/9

8.4

BB/9

2.5

HR/9

1.2

Fastball

94.0 mph

ERA

4.25

WHIP

1.30

BABIP

.321

GB/FB

1.29

Left On Base

71.1%

Exit Velocity

82.5 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.1%

Spin Rate

2506 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

23.8%

Swinging Strike

9.7%

Prospect Rankings History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Through his first seven starts of 2022, Keller had a 6.61 ERA. After he was briefly demoted to a relief role, it appeared the Keller was on a continued trajectory of an underwhelming MLB career. However, the narrative quickly took a turn, as Keller re-entered the rotation and closed the campaign by maintaining a 3.22 ERA across his last 120.1 innings. He turned into a contact-heavy pitcher in that span by maintaining only a 20.7 K%, but that also allowed him to fill the strike zone and maintain an 8.8 BB% (career 9.7 BB%). Even more of a revelation was Keller's ability to keep batted balls on the ground, as his GB% spiked to 49.4% and HR/9 fell to 0.7. While those exact numbers may not be replicable, the positive results were made more believable by a tangible change in Keller's pitch mix. He threw his four-seam fastball less in exchange for introducing a sinker, so the tradeoff of swings and misses for groundballs is sensible. While his role once seemed to be in danger, Keller is locked in as a top-three pitcher in the Pirates' rotation, and he could be capable of turning in solid ratios without much strikeout or win upside.

Keller's fastball velocity was up this spring and with it, his ADP. Typically a righty with a fairly straight mid-90s fastball, Keller was touching 99 mph this spring. He will need to command the pitch and his quality secondaries, as big-league hitters have no trouble catching up to that velocity when it lacks movement and isn't located properly. However, there is clear post-hype breakout potential here, especially since Keller is a lock to make the rotation.

Keller's 2019 debut didn't go well, so he spent the offseason working on his spin efficiency, hoping to add movement to his 95-mph fastball. Unfortunately, the jury is still out as the righty missed six weeks with a sore oblique, limiting him to five starts. Keller's 2.91 ERA implies he pitched well when healthy, but 18 walks and 16 strikeouts in 21.2 innings beg to differ. The early results on Keller's fastball are tempered by sample-size caveats, but encouraging. He missed more bats with his four-seamer in 2019, but he gave up much softer contact in 2020, which is more important as his slider and curveball can be the strikeout offerings. Keller's velocity and spin dropped last season, but the key is he was getting useful spin. Keller enters his age-25 season the same as last year. He's still a potential mid-rotation starter with spotty control. Keller profiles as a low-end streamer, with a great home park.

After his 11-start rookie campaign, FIP pegged his deserved ERA at a strong 3.19, a far cry from the actual 7.13 ERA he recorded. Keller's 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were right in line with his numbers in 19 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 3.56 ERA. His 59.6% strand rate and .475 BABIP stand out as clear explanations for the large discrepancy between his ERA and FIP in the big leagues. Statcast doesn't suggest that Keller is at fault for those numbers, giving him an expected opposing batting average of .256, slightly below par but nowhere near the .343 opposing average he actually allowed. Scouts projected Keller as a mid-rotation starter, and the underlying numbers indicate that he still could be that guy going forward despite his awful rookie ERA. Armed with a plus fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball, he is a lock for the Pirates rotation and could have a breakout year.

The Pirates continued their slow, methodical approach to Keller's development in 2018. Keller encountered little resistance at any point during his time with Double-A Altoona -- he allowed more than three runs just twice in 14 starts -- but nonetheless the team waited until the final day of June to bump him up to the next level. While the results took a turn for the worse after the leap to Triple-A, the peripherals were fine (24.2 K%, 0.52 HR/9). Keller's walk rates haven't been especially good at the higher levels, but he commands the fastball well. Fastball command is something a lot of young arms struggle with upon arrival to the big leagues, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern with Keller. He can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeout totals should be useful, if unexciting. Considering his path to this point, it seems likely that Keller will spend much of the first half back at Triple-A before finally cracking the big-league rotation.

Keller commands one of the best fastballs in the minors -- a mid-90s weapon with late life that can miss bats in and out of the zone. The pitch is so good that it’s all he needs to get through a minor-league lineup once and sometimes even twice. He also features a potentially plus curveball that works as an out pitch, but his changeup lags well behind as a fringe offering. His top two pitches and excellent command will carry him to the majors, but he needs to improve his changeup to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation horse. A back strain caused him to throw fewer innings in 2017 than in 2016, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to build up his innings in advance of what is likely to be his final season in the minors. He had a chance to generate a lot of hype in the AFL, a la Brent Honeywell last season, but evaluators weren’t particularly impressed by his showing, even though the stats were impressive.

The Pirates 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Keller compiled a 9-5 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 138:19 K:BB. The 20-year-old didn't allow a single run in six of his last seven starts, including two postseason outings. He offers a mid-90s fastball, above-average curveball and a solid changeup that serves as his third-best pitch. He struggled with his control as a rookie in 2015 (16 walks in 19.2 innings) but control wasn't an issue last year. Additionally, he managed to stay healthy in 2016 after forearm issues sidelined him for most of his second professional season. Keller will likely start 2017 at High-A Bradenton with a potential midseason move to Double-A. The 2014 second-round pick is as exciting as organization mate Tyler Glasnow, but for different reasons. Glasnow's top selling point is his ceiling while Keller's is his mid-rotation floor.

A second-round pick in 2014, Keller appeared in only 19.2 innings for Bristol last year because of forearm tightness. The results weren’t promising (5.49 ERA, 16 walks) but it’s possible the 20-year-old righty might be suffering from a more severe injury. He showed promise in 2014, registering a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, but the fact that he saw so little action last summer gives cause for concern. Keller offers swing-and-miss stuff, but he needs to stay on the diamond throughout 2016 to maintain his prospect status.

A second-round pick in the 2014 draft, Keller got his first taste of professional action in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27.1 innings with a 29:13 K:BB ratio. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, but struggles with control issues. Keller, who received a $1 million signing bonus, is expected to pitch in rookie ball for Morgantown in 2015.

More Fantasy News

Gives up eight in loss

PPittsburgh Pirates

September 20, 2024

Keller (11-11) took the loss Friday against Cincinnati, allowing eight runs on seven hits and five walks over 3.1 innings. He struck out one.