Jonathan Villar

The Mets signed Villar last offseason, ostensibly to fill in all over the diamond, albeit with a below average glove. As it turned out, when healthy, he was essentially a regular, playing mostly at the hot corner with time up the middle. Villar's 142 games were his third most ever, though he started only 117. Last year was the first time Villar had more homers (18) than stolen bases (14). While his sprint speed is down to 57th percentile, Villar has never been a burner. For example, he swiped 16 in the abbreviated 2020 campaign with 59th percentile sprint speed. Despite his defensive deficiencies, Villar is best suited in a Swiss army knife capacity. If he ends up playing almost every day, Villar can still be a fantasy asset, especially if he's in a lineup with the freedom to run, just keep expectations around 20 bags, and not the 40 he averaged from 2016-2019.

Villar has pretty much covered the fantasy spectrum the past few years. In 2016, he was a bonafide fantasy stud contributing in all five categories. His 2017 and 2018 seasons were more in line with what we expected from him and then he really took to playing in Baltimore in 2019 with another stud fantasy season. His 2020, however, was a massive disappointment as his season went south once he went north from Miami to Toronto. Sure, the 16 steals in 52 games were fun in a season where steals were rare, but Villar became the first player to have more steals than runs scored since Billy Hamilton in 2015 (min. 200 PA). The free agent's value will depend on where he lands as a more successful team could use him as more of a role player. Ideally, he lands as he did in 2019 and plays everyday for a second-division club. Bank on the steals, but the rest of the line could go in any direction.

The 108-loss Orioles weren't shy about giving the speedy Villar the green light in 2019, allowing him to finish second in the majors in steals. At the dish, he showed an improved eye (8.5 BB%) to go with some solid pop (career-best .179 ISO), propelling him to a .274/.339/.453 line (107 wRC+). Villar's shoddy defense in the middle infield was an issue, however, and mostly explains the disconnect between his real-life and fantasy value. To that end, the Orioles moved on from Villar this winter, sending him to Miami for a low-level prospect rather than paying the $10 million-plus he was due in arbitration. Considering the Marlins fielded a similarly poor offense in 2019, Villar should remain active on the bases, but the move to Miami hurts his power outlook. Additionally, Villar is a prime candidate to be dealt midseason, and a trade to a contending club may put him at risk of falling into a utility role.

After a 2016 breakout, a 2017 dropoff and a tumultuous first half with sporadic playing time, Villar surged again after a trade to Baltimore. Playing close to every day, the speedster hit eight home runs and stole 21 bases in 24 chances over the final two months, helping many owners to fantasy championships. In the past three years, he's tied for third with 120 steals, and he boasts a 9.2 BB% during that span. He hits a lot of balls on the ground but has legitimate raw power, as evidenced by Villar's hefty 18.9% HR/FB since 2015. This all comes with a 27.3 K%, but even with that hindrance, he's among the best bets to go 15-30 in the majors. Following their teardown last summer, Baltimore should hand Villar full-time work, and there's no downside to letting him run wild. Given the surging market for stolen bases, Villar will carry a high price, but at least it won't be as great as his pre-2017 cost.

Big things were expected from Villar after he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases in 2016, and he routinely went in the early rounds of last year's drafts. However, his fantasy stock instead took a nosedive due to his inability to make contact early in the season, and then due to his inability to even see the field over the latter portion of the campaign. Villar still managed to hit 11 home runs and steal 23 bases in 2017 despite his struggles, but he is no longer the future at second base for the Brewers. In fact, he may not even open the 2018 with a defined role in Milwaukee. Villar's power and speed potential makes him an intriguing rebound candidate, but if he is unable to show better plate discipline early in the season and beyond, he'll likely face an uphill battle to claim an everyday role.

Villar broke out in 2016, as he not only led the major leagues in stolen bases with 62 (and caught stealing, with 18), but also posted a career best .826 OPS with 19 home runs while playing solid defense across the infield at shortstop, third base and second base. The Brewers acquired Travis Shaw over the offseason, and his presence combined with the callup of top prospect shortstop Orlando Arcia will lock Villar into the starting second baseman role for 2017. The Brewers ran wild in 2016, and there's little reason to believe Craig Counsell's philosophy will change drastically in one year, so expect another big stolen-base total from Villar. The biggest questions, however, pertain to the sustainability of his power production, and the significant improvement in his walk rate, which jumped to a career-best 11.6 percent last season. Most likely, he'll give some home runs back in 2017 after his HR/FB rate nearly doubled from 10.0 percent in 2015 to 19.6 percent last season.

Villar secured an Opening Day roster spot with the Astros after hitting .288 and displaying increased versatility on defense last spring, but he only made 53 appearances for the club and was limited to spot-start and pinch-running duties. Quite simply, the door never opened for regular playing time, as Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie and Marwin Gonzalez saw most of the at-bats behind stars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The 24-year-old did not allow that to slow him down, however, as he swiped 35 bases in 70 games with Triple-A Fresno. A November trade to Milwaukee cleared Villar's path considerably, he will likely serve primarily in a utility role so long as Jean Segura is in town.

Villar disappointed fantasy owners who drafted him for his 40-plus stolen base potential last season, as the Dominican native struggled offensively and swiped only 17 bags in 87 games with the Astros. By comparison, the 23-year-old shortstop had 18 steals in 54 games the year prior. He did hit seven home runs, but Houston eventually decided his .209/.267/.354 slash line and 18 errors at shortstop wasn't cutting it and turned to Marwin Gonzalez and Gregorio Petit to man the position. With uber-prospect Carlos Correa at least a year away from reaching the big leagues, Villar should get an opportunity to redeem himself this season, but he'll need to improve his fielding skills (.949), contact rate (70%) and cut down on his strikeouts (27.7%) in order for that happen.

Once the Astros realized that Ronny Cedeno wasn't cutting it as their starting shortstop, Villar was given an opportunity to show what he could do at the big league level. After displaying elite speed in the minors, the 22-year-old Dominican Republic native was extremely aggressive on the basepaths for Houston, swiping 18 bags in 54 games. He made some baserunning gaffes along the way (he was caught stealing eight times) and he didn't hit the ball particularly well (.243 batting average, 29.5 percent strikeout rate), but the switch-hitter showed good plate discipline (10 percent walk rate) while hitting from the leadoff and ninth spots in the batting order. With top prospect Carlos Correa still a few years away, Villar will be given an extended look in Houston this season. He should be a relatively cheap source of steals in 2014 drafts since he does not offer much outside of that category.

Villar was putting together a passable season at Double-A as a 21-year-old before deciding to punch a door in July, which caused him to miss most of the rest of the year. While some days Villar flashes his potential and gives you a glimpse of a future big league star, most days he looks pretty average. Villar improved his plate discipline somewhat from 2011, increasing the walks while decreasing the strikeouts, but he will have to do a lot more growing as he reaches the upper minors. Villar was probably the closest middle-infield prospect to the big leagues in the Houston system, but after missing so much time in 2012, a September callup is probably optimistic.

Villar continued to fail to live up to expectations again in 2011, hitting .241/.320/.396 with 34 stolen bases in 130 minor league games. If he learned some plate discipline, Villar could become someone that owners could count on to do a little bit of everything. Without that growth, his long-term future is probably best suited to role-player status. He's still just 20, and should start the year back in Double-A.

Villar came over to the Astros in the midseason deal that sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia. Villar is fast and athletic, but still very raw as a hitter. He will need plenty of time to develop, and bear in mind the Astros do not have a good track record with similar prospects. The steals alone will keep him on the fantasy radar, but he may never nail down a major league job if he can't rack up enough hits and draw more walks.