This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
The weather has cooled off for Tuesday night and that could help pitchers from overheating. It also helps that the amount of high-end options are plentiful with most lineups likely spending a bit more than usual on pitching.
PITCHING
It'll be hard to completely avoid expensive pitching options given the reliability at the top. Trevor Bauer ($11,400) leads the list with 29 strikeouts in his last three starts and gets a vulnerable Blue Jays squad, but it's more reasonable to save money on someone like Aaron Nola ($10,100). While Nola struggled against the Dodgers last start, he hit 24 fantasy points in his prior four and the Tigers have a 25.8 K% and .294 wOBA in the last month against righties. Stephen Strasburg ($10,700) has slightly more upside against the Rockies, though he's been hit-or-miss, similar to Chris Sale ($11,000). Chris Paddack ($10,300) doesn't have as good of matchup as Nola, but he's allowed six hits in his last three starts and the Mets have a subpar .311 OBP against righty arms in the last month.
Matthew Boyd ($9,900) is worth a look because even though he's allowing a lot of runs, he's throwing a ton, going at least six innings in four of his last five. The Phillies are also near the bottom of the charts with a .300 wOBA against southpaws since the beginning of June. It's a similar situation for Caleb Smith ($9,400), who has at least 17 fantasy points in his last three starts and should hit that number against the White Sox and their 25.3 K% against lefties since June 1.
Merrill Kelly ($7,300) and Dallas Keuchel ($7,200) will be viable and popular because of matchup, though neither have much upside due to a lack of Ks. The Orioles have a 23.3 K% and .328 wOBA against righty arms in the last month and the Royals are at 23.7 and .314 against lefties so Keuchel has a small advantage. However, you can get the same kind of numbers with someone like Zach Davies ($5,800), who has no upside, but gone 13 innings in his last two starts and the Reds are an equal matchup with a 23.8 K% and .320 wOBA against righty hurlers.
For GPP, Tommy Milone ($7,600) faces the strikeout-heavy Rangers and hit 23.8 fantasy points against them a couple months ago (5.2 IP, 4 HA, 7 K). The bigger stretch is Dylan Covey ($4,600), who re-enters the starting rotation against the Marlins and their 27.3 K% and .292 wOBA in the last month against righty arms. He hasn't had a matchup as favorable as this one so there's a chance he could hit 20 fantasy points for cheap.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
All of the top bats are in favorable situations to continue their streaks from Christian Yelich ($5,900) and Ronald Acuna ($5,700) to Cody Bellinger ($5,600) and Ketel Marte ($5,500). Those guys all cost a bunch, but all of them are in position to succeed, which you can't say about most bats Tuesday night.
I'd look at the Brewers first because there's a good chance Yelich rips Tanner Roark ($7,100), who has allowed seven homers in his last three starts to go with a .404 wOBA against lefties. If you can't spend on Yelich, I'd grab Eric Thames ($4,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($4,300) next, both with OBPs above .370 in the last month against righties.
The Yankees-Twins game has one of the higher over/unders at 10 runs, though it's not the easiest game to bet on for hitting with Domingo German and Kyle Gibson on the mound. I'd rather focus on a struggling pitcher like Covey or Jason Vargas. If the Marlins had more lefties, they'd be more useful against Covey's .447 OBP allowed. Unfortunately, Neil Walker ($3,600) and Curtis Granderson ($3,500) may be the only bats who fit that mold. Vargas is equally bad against both sides of the plate and has allowed 12 runs in his last three starts. Manuel Margot ($4,100) is the reasonable play with a .556 OBP in his last 36 plate appearances against lefty arms, but Luis Urias ($3,000) was recently called up and could be the sneaky play for the Padres.
Otherwise, there's value to be had in Baltimore and Arizona. Merrill Kelly has a 4.94 xFIP against lefty bats, while Dylan Bundy has allowed a .370 wOBA to righties. The Orioles are the better value route with Rio Ruiz ($3,200) and Chris Davis ($3,100) the top options. It's a little tricky for the Diamondbacks outside of Ketel Marte ($5,500), but Christian Walker ($4,600), Adam Jones ($4,300) and Nick Ahmed ($4,100) are the leading righties, albeit a bit pricey.
STACKS
Braves vs. Danny Duffy (Royals)
(OF Nick Markakis - $4,200), (2B Ozzie Albies - $4,400), (OF Austin Riley - $4,300)
Duffy has had some quality outings, but none of those came against the Braves. If you want to bank off Duffy's struggles, it may be best to go with a lefty-lefty stack given that he's allowed a .377 wOBA and .389 OBP to lefty bats. That likely means adding Freddie Freeman ($5,100), though I'm not confident in his numbers. As for the listed stack, Albies has a .444 OBP and .294 ISO in his last 36 PA against lefties, while Markakis and Riley have OBPs above .340.
Dodgers vs. Taylor Cole, opener, Felix Pena (Angels)
(OF Cody Bellinger - $5,600), (1B/2B Max Muncy - $4,900), (SS Corey Seager - $4,000)
Pena gave up six hits in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers a month ago and will likely struggle again. He's allowing an ugly .371 wOBA to lefty bats, while the Dodgers have a .258 ISO against righties over the last month. There are a lot of ways to go in this lineup, but Bellinger and Muncy will be hard to fade, both supplying power and consistency with ISOs near .370 against righties since the beginning of June. If you're looking for more options, Joc Pederson ($4,500), Matt Beaty ($4,200) and Alex Verdugo ($4,200) all fit the bill.
Indians vs. Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays)
(1B Carlos Santana - $4,600), (1B/OF Jake Bauers - $3,500), (C Roberto Perez - $3,800)
The Indians have turned up their bats for a .221 ISO and .361 wOBA in the last month against righty pitchers and that's not good news for Sanchez. He's limiting home runs, but has allowed a .423 OBP to righties and a .350 wOBA to lefties. This stack saves a significant amount of money, though Oscar Mercado ($5,000) and Francisco Lindor ($4,900) are plenty viable. Either way, Santana needs to be in the squad with a .408 OBP and .303 ISO in his last 120 PA against righties, while Perez and Bauers have OBPs slightly above .340.
