This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Tuesday's top-tier pitchers run almost 10 arms deep, but that doesn't mean you should avoid the most expensive ones, including Stephen Strasburg. Making things fun is that the most likely location for rain is Coors Field so it may not be a good idea to base your lineup around those players.
PITCHING
Stephen Strasburg ($10,600) has found a bit of a groove with at least 26 fantasy points in his last three starts, helped by 29 strikeouts. Even if he allows a couple runs to the Brewers, his Ks will keep him relevant since Milwaukee sports a high 26.7 K% against righties over the last month. The only other pitcher with the same upside is Noah Syndergaard ($10,100), who roasted the Reds last outing for 46.3 fantasy points and now faces the Padres. Jose Berrios ($10,400) has a good matchup, but hasn't surpassed 30 fantasy points since the opener because he's allowing runs every start.
A lot of people will roster Jon Lester ($9,000) because he faces the Marlins, but they've been one of the best at not striking out against southpaws with an 18.1 K%. Of course, they may only get two hits so that wouldn't matter.
The GPP play is Madison Bumgarner ($7,600) at Coors Field. He has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts and one of those was against the Rockies when he went seven innings for 26.2 fantasy points. And while this game is in Colorado, the Rockies still have a subpar .148 ISO and .312 wOBA against lefty arms at home. Steven Brault ($6,700) is another option in his first start of the season, though his 28.2 K% will likely drop and there's no guarantee he'll make it more than a few innings.
Otherwise, there isn't a ton of upside in the budget range. Adrian Sampson ($5,600) allowed five hits with five Ks in 5.2 innings against the Pirates last start, but that was still only good for 19.2 points. Antonio Senzatela ($6,500) is in that same mold and isn't a big strikeout guy. The positives are that he's had three tough matchups since facing San Diego in his opener and the Giants have a brutal .277 wOBA against righty arms over the last month.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
With worries of rain, players in the San Francisco-Colorado game may be less popular than usual. Most of that love will likely go to Boston against David Hess, who has one quality start this season and has given up eight homers in his last four. He's been bad against both sides of the plate, but last year's 2.55 HR/9 allowed to lefty bats is an issue against this lineup. Andrew Benintendi ($5,100) did a lot of that damage, as he has three homers in eight career at-bats against Hess, which will undoubtedly draw eyeballs. Not far behind are Mitch Moreland ($4,800) and Rafael Devers ($4,700) with the latter having seven multi-hit games in his last 11 outings. As usual, Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3,200) is the value play with little upside.
It could be a similar situation for the Astros against Danny Duffy, who had a .344 wOBA allowed to righties last season. That's not a good stat against this lineup with George Springer ($5,200) likely being a top power bat, while Jose Altuve ($4,300) could have higher ownership due to a lower price. Yuli Gurriel ($3,700) is the most reasonable value bet for Houston, though Tyler White ($3,600) should be in consideration if he starts.
You might find the most value on the Cardinals, especially in GPP circles. Aaron Nola has seemingly calmed down since a rough start, but his last two came against Detroit and Miami. St. Louis has one of the best wOBAs against righties (.343) over the last month and that could lead to a performance similar to earlier in the season for Nola. He's struggled most against lefties, which means it's a better spot for Dexter Fowler ($3,900) and Matt Carpenter ($3,800) at decent rates.
It also wouldn't hurt to look at the other team in Houston since Collin McHugh has given up 16 runs and six home runs in his last three starts. Ryan O'Hearn provides the best value with a .340 wOBA against righty arms. It's a similar situation for the Orioles against Hector Velazquez, who is getting a spot start for Boston. That means it could be another Chris Davis ($3,100) night with hopes he finds the success he had a little more than a week ago.
STACKS
Twins vs. Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays)
(OF Max Kepler - $4,400), (SS Jorge Polanco - $4,300), (OF Nelson Cruz - $4,800)
Sanchez gave up nine hits and four runs to a poor Angels team last outing and two homers to this Minnesota squad less than a month ago. Throw in last season's .380 wOBA allowed to lefty bats and this is a good spot for the Twins to produce at decent prices. The three hitters at the top of the order all have power with an average wOBA of .400 against righties. Cruz also leads the Twins with a .353 BABIP against righty arms.
Athletics vs. Tyler Mahle (Reds)
(1B/OF Matt Olson - $4,500), (OF Robbie Grossman - $3,900), (2B Jurickson Profar - $3,300)
The A's are in a funk, partly due to injuries, but still have a solid .342 wOBA against righty arms in the last month. The return of Olson should help, as long as he makes the lineup in his first game back from the DL. Either way, focus on every Oakland lefty in the lineup. While this isn't an enticing stack, it could be a worthy GPP play against Mahle, who continues to struggle against lefty bats after last year's .415 wOBA allowed.
Rangers vs. Steven Brault (Pirates)
(SS Elvis Andrus - $5,000), (OF Nomar Mazara - $4,400), (OF Hunter Pence - $4,500)
This is Brault's first start after allowing a .347 wOBA and 5.07 xFIP to righties last season. He hasn't looked much better in four appearances out of the bullpen and while Texas doesn't have the most consistent bats, it has power. Andrus costs a pretty penny, though has a .476 BABIP in 29 plate appearances against southpaws. Mazara and Pence are cheaper for a reason, while Rougned Odor ($3,900) has become a value play due to recent struggles.
