This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's eight-game main slate features mostly mid and low-tier pitching talent. While this gives us a plethora of options for offense, it also means that our second starter is going to be crucial in allowing us to build a productive lineup.
Pitching Overview
Justin Verlander ($10,400) will likely be the chalk of the slate Monday. Verlander faces a Yankees offense that was among the best in the league on the road according to wOBA last year. As mentioned above, the quality of arms dips dramatically once we get past the first few names, which will likely draw people to the 35-year-old at his least expensive price of the season thus far.
Hyun-Jin Ryu ($9,600) features a combination of strikeouts and grounders that can stifle any offense but the Cardinals finished 2018 as a top-5 team against left-handed pitching according to wOBA. It must be noted that the squad carries the second-worst wOBA against lefties in just 82 plate appearances this year but such a small sample should carry little weight when considering that the Cardinals' offense has only gotten more firepower against lefties with the addition of Paul Goldschmidt.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,300) put up a robust 26.2 DraftKings points against the Padres on Opening Day. While his fastball has shown some signs of coming back to life, San Diego's new-look offense has come on strong against southpaws early in 2019. It is likely that prospective owners still lack a level of trust in MadBum due to his continually falling strikeout rate over the past few seasons, so DFS players willing to go back to him at an elevated price will likely get their bravery rewarded with scarcity.
Vince Velasquez ($8,400) has some clear strikeout upside but logged walk rates of 10.8 percent and 9.4 percent in the last two seasons, respectively. The Nationals have struck out against righties at a 28 percent clip to begin the year, which may hint at some GPP value but the offense is still hovering around a top-10 wOBA against right-handers without Bryce Harper. This makes Velazquez a fairly strong fade in cash games.
It will be difficult to find a play below $8,000 on the main slate but I suspect most will go back to Eric Lauer ($7,500) against the Giants. Lauer paid off as a popular play (20.5 DK points) in his first start of the year against San Francisco but was nearly $2,000 less expensive at the time and doesn't really offer much in terms of skill set. He finished 2018 with a 100:46 K/BB ratio in 112 innings while allowing 15 homers over that span. This sets up Lauer to potentially be a strong chalk fade.
Marco Estrada ($7,300) faces a weak Orioles lineup but his penchant to throw flyballs and lack of any real upside makes him tough to use in a hitter's ballpark.
Those feeling adventurous in GPPs could look towards Kyle Freeland ($6,200) in Colorado. Freeland ended 2018 with a 2.40 ERA in 93.2 innings at Coors Field and has put up DK scores of over 20 points in each of his first two starts. He will be facing a tremendously talented offense in the Braves, which makes this a strict GPP-only punt.
Key Values
Mike Trout ($5,700) will likely get all kinds of love after homering five times in his last four games. Right-handed hitters didn't do much against Jhoulys Chacin last year (.234 wOBA) which could give owners a reason to fade Trout at this price.
Charlie Blackmon ($5,200) has yet to get going against right-handed pitching, but Julio Teheran's problems against lefty hitters have been well documented (17.4 percent walk rate in 2018), which makes Blackmon an intriguing play at home.
Khris Davis ($5,200) ended 2018 with an elite .315 ISO against right-handed pitchers and will face a hurler in Andrew Cashner who allowed a .370 wOBA against right-handed hitters last year.
Cody Bellinger ($4,900) has been about as hot as he can possibly be through his first 10 games, logging a ridiculous .568 ISO over that span. This should make him plenty popular when he faces Miles Mikolas. Mikolas got roughed up in his last outing against the Brewers but used his heavy groundball rate and pinpoint control to post a 2.83 ERA last year.
Juan Soto ($4,800) needs to be considered against Velazquez, who finished last season having allowed a .529 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters in 70 innings.
Mike Moustakas ($4,400) showed good power against righty hurlers last year, tallying a .230 ISO in 392 at-bats. Trevor Cahil performed well against both sides of the platoon in 2018 but the 41 percent hard contact rate he allowed to lefty bats may present players with an opportunity.
Jay Bruce ($4,200) is hitting just .184 in the young season but already has five homers in just 38 at-bats. Homer Bailey was able to induce more empty swings by relying on his splitter in his first start but he still needs to be considered a stack target until further notice thanks to the 6.09 ERA and 1.95 HR/9 rate he posted in 2018.
Trey Mancini ($4,200) gets the aforementioned Estrada at home. Mancini took a bit of a backward step last year after a breakout in 2017 but has always held a reverse platoon split, as evidenced by the .207 ISO he has logged against right-handed pitchers in 822 career at-bats.
Stacks
A's against Marco Estrada: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman ($4,800) Stephen Piscotty ($4,700)
Interestingly enough, all three of our selections fared better against same-handed pitchers in 2018. Meanwhile, Cashner allowed a .483 slugging percentage to righty batters in 75 innings.
Mariners against Homer Bailey: Mitch Haniger ($4,600) Omar Narvaez ($3,600) Dan Vogelbach ($4,200)
The Mariners have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball to open the season, and these three have been a key reason for that. Narvaez sticks out as a nice value here, having logged a .363 wOBA against opposite-handed pitchers last year. Vogelbach was known for his big power in the minor leagues and seems to be bringing that to bear with the big club, having notched four homers in his first six games to begin the year.
Orioles against Marco Estrada: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar ($4,500) Chris Davis ($3,900)
Boy, do I have a GPP stack for you. Estrada has logged HR/9 rates of at least 1.5 in each of the last two seasons and notched a 5.85 ERA in 72.1 innings on the road last year. This makes him a viable target for hitters like Villar who have started the season hot and hitters like Davis who need all the help they can get to break out of a slump.
