Marco Estrada

Estrada's career slide continued as 2018 was marred by injuries and decaying skills. On the hill, Estrada's K% dipped to 16.4, his worst mark ever. Homers remained an issue as his flyball rate rose to 55%, its highest level since 2010. The result was a bloated 1.82 HR/9, also his highest since that 2010 season. Estrada's velocity lost a tick -- he averaged just 89 mph on his four-seam fastball, narrowing the delta between that offering and his changeup. He spent much of July on the DL with a left glute strain. Estrada also dealt with back issues off and on throughout the season and was forced to miss his final start after a stem-cell injection to his lower back. Despite many teams needing starting pitching, Estrada is likely looking at a minor-league contract with a spring invite if he wants to come back for a 12th season.

Regression doesn’t punch a time clock. Sometimes it takes weeks, sometimes months, and occasionally it waits years to rear its ugly head. For the past few seasons, Estrada has registered a BABIP well below league average, even accounting for his flyball tendencies. The highest BABIP he sported from 2013-2016 was .262. The party line was Estrada induces weak contact. Perhaps he lost that skill in 2017, or perhaps Lady Luck caught up. Regardless, a .295 BABIP with a walk rate that increased for the fifth straight season resulted in a 1.38 WHIP, his highest since 2010. Sprinkle in a 1.50 HR/9 and Estrada’s 4.98 ERA was the highest since that same campaign. His repertoire, both in terms of velocity and pitch mix, didn’t change much, he just wasn’t as sharp. His strikeout rate dipped precipitously over the second half (to 18.1 percent). Now 34 years old, the righty is likely to rebound, but not to the level displayed his first two seasons in Toronto.

Estrada finished with strong ratios last season despite a back issue which lingered throughout much of the campaign and a lack of run support. The vaunted Jays' offense provided just 3.93 runs of support over Estrada's career-high 29 starts; 58th out of all 74 qualified starters in MLB. In 2016, Estrada's average fastball (88.1 mph) dipped more than a tick from his previous season, but he still managed a strong 8.4 K/9, his best mark since 2012 with Milwaukee. His 4.20 FIP suggests Estrada may have overachieved in the ratio categories, but he has outperformed his ERA indicators in each of the past three seasons and his low BABIPs have been supported by relatively high weak contact rates. Estrada's still a heavy flyball pitcher, though, and thus home runs remain an issue, and his walk rate last year was his highest since he became a full-time starter. But the sum of the parts is enough to allow Estrada to maintain above-average fantasy appeal.

Estrada was a home run machine moving from one already-hard ballpark to an even harder one in the toughest ballpark division of the more difficult league. How could this work? Well, a .216 BABIP and 79 percent strand rate helped. Just because those marks are primed for regression doesn't mean he didn't influence them. His career track record simply doesn't suggest that the same confluence of events will come together the same way in 2016. He succeeds with a rising fastball and plus changeup combo that induces loads of weak in-air contact, which drives his .261 career BABIP. The declining strikeout rate is a bummer from a fantasy standpoint, but it's never been his key to success. Since the start of 2012, his WHIP is 13th-best among 169 qualified starters, so he will supply value there. When factoring in an ERA rise, look more to his 2012-2013 for guidance (3.75) as opposed to 2014 (4.36).

Estrada spent two years and most of 2014 as a starter with the Brewers, but he was moved to the bullpen last July after giving up 27 home runs in 18 starts. He fared better in relief, giving up just two home runs and giving up zero runs in 10 September appearances. Estrada does not possess dominant stuff and gets by mainly on deception, but the Blue Jays decided to pick him up in an offseason trade for Adam Lind. He will get a shot to compete for a starting spot during spring training, but may be better suited for the bullpen, and the move to another park that punishes flyball tendencies will present another challenge for Estrada.

Estrada owned a 5.32 ERA when he landed on the disabled list in June, but he posted a 2.15 ERA over his final nine starts to finish with respectable numbers for the third straight year. He didn't have a normal spring training thanks to his participation in the WBC, so he should benefit from a regular schedule this year. Estrada throws strikes and has punched out nearly a batter per inning for his career, but he has also had some trouble keeping the ball in the park. Even if the Brewers add another starter, Estrada is a good bet to open the season with a spot in the rotation.

After being little more than a swing pitcher for the Brewers the previous two seasons, Estrada emerged as one of the team's best starters in 2012. In 23 starts - after having never made more than seven in a season - Estrada posted a 3.64 ERA and stellar 143:29 K:BB ratio over 138.1 innings. Estrada was tagged for a lot of home runs early last season, but he gave up just two over the season's final two months. If he can limit the long ball, he could come close to matching last season's production.

Estrada was impressive early in 2011 as a rotation replacement for the injured Zack Greinke. His numbers fell off when used as a reliever and he finished with a 4.08 ERA in 92.2 innings. Estrada has very good strikeout and walk rates, but has always been bitten by the long ball. He will likely work as a long reliever and possible injury replacement in the rotation during 2012.

After a solid season in the Triple-A rotation, Estrada got a brief look in the majors at the end of the season but once again didn't exactly set the world on fire, which isn't that surprising given his mediocre repertoire and lack of scouting pedigree. He profiles more as an organizational soldier than a future cog in the Nationals' bullpen machine, big or small, but it's a testament to his strength of will that he's even made it this far.

Estrada struggled in the big league bullpen, but despite starting 25 games in the high minors (with generally pretty good results) his short frame and two-pitch arsenal probably mean it's relief or nothing if he wants to break camp on the 25-man roster. The Nationals' chaotic pitching situation means a back-of-the-rotation spot is a possibility down the road though, and he'd have marginally more value as a starter than as a middle man.