Collette Calls: AL Bold Predictions Mid-Year Assessment

Two weeks ago I went through my NL Bold Predictions and had fun at my expense using memes to grade the predictions. It was well received, so the format will continue for the AL recaps. Buckle up!

American League East (click to review the research on predictions)

Baltimore Orioles: Renato Nunez will hit 25 home runs and Hunter Harvey will lead the team in saves.

Nunez closed the first half with 20 home runs, as the mixture of a tremendous home park for the pull-heavy righty as well as the 2019 baseball have done wonders for him. He has hit slightly above league average and is blowing away most of the preseason predictions everyone had for him. He will continue to play everyday, and given the home run rate league-wide has risen each month this season, 35 home runs is not out of the question.  This prediction is looking as good as the Harvey prediction is awful. Harvey has pitched 62 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.94 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and 14 home runs allowed around 63 strikeouts and zero saves on the season. 

Boston Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr. is a top-40 fantasy outfielder and Nathan Eovaldi does not pitch 120 innings in 2019.

Bradley is playing better lately, but the abysmal start is making his overall numbers still look bad.

This is the same path that Bradley traveled last season where he was terrible until mid-June and then really never cooled off. He is doing it again, and you may be able to buy him and enjoy the ride the rest of the season as long as he continues to produce as he has over the last 40 games.

Eovaldi has thrown 21 innings this season, and a forgettable 21 at that. Even when he was on the mound, he did not look much like the 2018 version. There is talk that when he comes back this season, it may be in the bullpen. Either way, there is no way he is pitching 120 innings, let alone 100 innings this season. There was simply too much history working against him for this to work out as well as people thought it would when they were rostering him as as early as they were. 

New York Yankees: Luke Voit does not hit 20 home runs and Jonathan Loaisiga earns $8 in AL-Only leagues.

Voit is three homers shy of making me look like a fool. He began 2019 where he left off in 2018, but his power has been in decline as the season has wore on. 

He has eight homers in April, six in May and three in June before an abdomen injury sidelined him through the All-Star break. His overall HR/FB declined in each month as well. Barring injury, he will get the 20 homers, but he has cooled considerably from his early pace. Loaisiga has been one of the 326 Yankee players injured this season. He has been on the injured list since May 13 with a right shoulder strain and should be back soon this month. He would have to pitch near-perfect baseball to earn the $8, but as a starter, he will likely have plenty of run support behind him the rest of the summer.

Tampa Bay Rays: Tommy Pham is a top-5 MVP candidate and Jose Alvarado is a top-5 closer by R$.

Pham will have to repeat his amazing second half last year for this to even finish in the ballpark of reality. He will likely surpass last year's homer and steals total, and is even hitting for a higher average this year, but the run production will not be there. He is nearly 60 runs behind where he finished last year, and 42 RBIs from a guy who has hit behind Austin Meadows and Yandy Diaz this year is disappointing. Alvarado has been mostly a hot mess this year around personal issues and two injuries. He is likely on the injured list into mid-August and may not get another save this year as the club likely will have traded for his replacement by then.

Toronto Blue Jays: Danny Jansen out-earns Buster Posey and Ryan Borucki is a top-60 pitcher.

Simply put, both Jansen and Posey have been major disappointments this season in a year where there have been many catching surprises. Yet, Jansen is still $1 better than Posey this year. That may not seem like much, but given Posey was going 100 spots ahead of Jansen in drafts this winter, that is a considerable impact on the roster. It is one thing when a 20th-round player blows up, but a 12th-rounder is tough to absorb when they have been as bad as Posey this year.

Borucki became injured late in spring training and has yet to make an appearance in a game. He is  out on rehab assignment and doing well in High-A Dunedin, but this prediction simply is not going to come true. He may still be an effective piece down the stretch if his stuff picks up where it left off last year. 

American League Central (click to review the research on predictions)

Chicago White Sox: Jose Abreu is a top-60 player and Reynaldo Lopez finishes outside the top-125 pitchers.

Abreu is ranked 31st overall on our Earned Auction Value calculator in standard 12-team mixed leagues. I mentioned in the prediction research he was the same guy he had always been save a massive dip in 2018 around his testicular torsion injury. This year, he is back to normal with some more extreme peaks and valleys, but ended the first half in the right direction:

Lopez has been even worse than expected. I mentioned in his prediction that he just did not look right when you compared his outcomes against the skills of others. In particular, I noted how extremely fortunate he was the third time through the order last season and that has been a big part of his struggles this season.

The White Sox are surprisingly competing for a wild card, but leaving Lopez out there to inflict this type of damage on the scoreboard is not doing them any favors, nor is his 6.34 ERA and 1.58 WHIP helping any fantasy team this season. 

Cleveland Indians: Jake Bauers finishes outside the top 350 and Brad Hand is a top-20 pitcher.

Bauers is  291 on our Earned Auction Value board, which is better than the prediction, but also nearly 50 spots below his ADP of 247 this year. The improvement has come from him being better against lefties this season (5 homers; .676 OPS) than he did last year (2 homers; .595 OPS). Hand is 73rd overall, but has been the 15th-best pitcher in standard fantasy leagues with stellar ratios, 25 saves and 60 strikeouts. 

Detroit Tigers: Daz Cameron finishes as a top-100 outfielder and Matt Boyd is a top-100 pitcher

Maybe I accidentally left off a zero on the Cameron prediction? He has been terrible in the minors and won't make the majors this season. Meanwhile, allow me to bask in the glory of Matt Boyd's performance this season. The issues I pointed out with Boyd last year with lefites have worked themselves out and he has been elite against fellow southpaws with a 28% K-BB% and a 1.96 ERA against them. There are rumors the Padres want to acquire him before the deadline, which should only help his strikeouts a bit more, but would expose him to better lineups that he is facing in the AL Central. He is the 24th-best starting pitcher in standard leagues, which is tremendous return on a guy that was an end-game pick in most leagues. 

Kansas City Royals: Adalberto Mondesi is not a top-100 player and Josh Staumont leads the team in saves.

Yea, this did not work out well at all. Mondesi is the 29th-best player in standard leagues this year, even with the time missed this year. Everything Mondesi did last year he is doing again this year, including running with wild abandon and striking out in bunches. The Isolated Power has dropped quite a bit, but most did not draft him for that. Staumont has 69 strikeouts in 49.1 innings in Triple-A Omaha, but also has 37 walks. Until that gets better, Kansas City is not going to call him up, even though its pen is rather terrible.

Minnesota Twins: Jorge Polanco is a top-175 player and Jake Odorizzi is a top-100 pitcher.

Polanco has been the 60th-best player in standard leagues this season doing a terrific job near the top of the Minnesota lineup getting on base. He is not stealing bases, but he has 58 runs, hitting .307, and has driven in 44 runs in that strong lineup. He is hitting 50 points higher against lefties this year, which was one of the issues that held down his value last year. Odorizzi's pitching lately has come back to earth a bit, but he is still the 19th-best pitcher in earned value to date. Rocco Baldelli has done a better job than Paul Molitor in limiting Odorizzi's exposure to the TTOP penalty and the extra velocity Odorizzi has this season has certainly helped.

American League West (click to review the research on predictions)

Houston Astros: Tyler White is a top-15 first baseman and Ryan Pressly leads the team in saves.

Tyler White has been terrible and I cannot polish up this turd of a prediction to make it look any better. Pressly has been a fantastic pitcher, but not a closer because Roberto Osuna has a stranglehold on the job. Even without the saves, Pressly has been the 21st most valuable reliever in standard scoring formats. 

Los Angeles Angels: Kole Calhoun is a top-60 outfielder and Matt Harvey is a top-100 pitcher.

Calhoun has been a top-25 pure outfielder to date and 33rd-best if you include players whose secondary position is the outfield. He has been an excellent run producer with 21 home runs, 50 runs driven in and 57 runs scored but has been a drag on the batting average. He has provided an excellent return on investment despite the poor average due to the run production in a surprisingly tough lineup. Harvey really flopped after some decent work early on. He missed nearly two months with a back injury but returned last Saturday to beat the Mariners, allowing one run on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts in 5.2 innings. 

Oakland A's: Jurickson Profar is not a top-25 second baseman and Marco Estrada is a top-100 pitcher.

Profar ranks 33rd at second base this season with a disappointing .210 batting average around some decent counting category production. He is being pushed down by a surprise season at the position, but it is tough to succeed with a 150-point drop in OPS as Profar has experienced this season. Estrada made it five starts before going down with a back injury, which required surgery that still has him out likely until late August.

Seattle Mariners: Jay Bruce is a top-50 outfielder and Erik Swanson earns $5 in AL-Only formats.

Bruce is 26th on the outfield board, having outearned the likes of Jorge Soler, Shin-Soo Choo, Trey Mancini and Hunter Pence. Twenty-four homers and 57 runs driven in while splitting time between Seattle and now Philadelphia has suited him nicely. The move out of Seattle to Philly should give him a decent shot at 40 homers this season. He is one homer shy of the 25 homers I said he could hit this season and has returned excellent value. Meanwhile, Swanson looked terribly overmatched at the big league level and recently returned to the majors after getting sent to Triple-A.

Texas Rangers: Delino DeShields Jr. steals 30 bases and Lance Lynn is a top-100 starting pitcher.

DeShields has 12 stolen bases around a demotion to Triple-A and now mostly regular playing time in the outfield. The Dentist is back to drawing walks and getting on base, so it is surprising he does not have more steals. Lynn has been a top-20 starting pitcher this season, his five-run slip against Arizona in his last start notwithstanding. Lynn looks fantastic with his fastball this year, and tunnels it  nicely with his cutter. He has more than a strikeout an inning and touches 98 with his fastball. I mentioned in the note the command is the last thing to return for a Tommy John recipient, and we saw that with Lynn in 2017 and half-way through 2018. He got it back after going to the Yankees late last year, and has picked up where he left off making his 3/30M contract this year look like the best deal of the offseason.