Collette Calls: NL Bold Predictions Mid-Year Assessment

We are already halfway through the baseball schedule this year, even with the All-Star game still days off. It is time to look back at my 60 bold predictions before the season to see which are coming true, which have an outside shot and which were created while I was under the influence of some hearty stout or porter during the colder months in North Carolina.

I will break this into two articles so you are not scrolling forever, and we'll begin with the 30 National League predictions.

National League East (click to review research on predictions)

Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall hits at least 25 homers and Kevin Gausman wins 15 games with a 3.50 ERA.

We are off to a fantastic start as Duvall already has 25 homers this season! The problem: all have come for the Gwinnett Stripers. Duvall has toiled up I-85 for the Atlanta Triple-A club all season, and is essentially an insurance policy for the club. Gausman is 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He has an acceptable 14 percent K-BB%, and his 1.2 HR/9 rate is not bat (for him) considering the inflated ball this year. His issue is a two-front battle against a high BABIP and a terribly low LOB%, which leads to the two-run difference in his ERA and FIP. One would think that with Atlanta's offense, Gausman would have more than two wins, but he has only pitched five or more innings in nine of his 13 outings. 

Miami Marlins: Magneuris Sierra steals at least 20 bases and Trevor Richards earns at least $5 in NL-Only leagues.

The Marlins are a bad team, but not bad enough for Sierra to make the roster as he has been in in the minors all season. He is 16 for 20 in steals down there, but 0 for 0 in Miami. Our Earned Auction Value calculator has Richards at exactly $5 earned in standard NL-Only leagues with his three wins, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 94 innings. It is a shame his skills are wasted with a terribly inconsistent offense as he should have more than three wins in 17 outings.

New York Mets: Wilson Ramos hits 25 homers, drives in 90 runs, and finishes as a top two fantasy catcher while Zack Wheeler finishes top 5 in NL Cy Young voting. 

Ramos' prediction was predicated on him hitting behind Brandon Nimmo, Jed Lowrie and Robinson Cano and their collective OBP skills. Cano has missed more than 20 games, Nimmo has missed half the season already and Lowrie is somewhere hanging out with Jacoby Ellsbury on the path to recovery. Ramos has nine homers and 41 runs driven in and has been the sixth-best fantasy catcher in standard mixed leagues. Wheeler has six wins in 18 starts and has struck out 25 percent of the batters he has faced. His issue has been the long ball as he has struggled with the new baseball watching his home run rate from 2018 double this season. He had a homer issue in 2017 when he returned from surgery, which is to be expected. What is happening this year is not, but Wheeler could be dealt shortly as he is a free agent after the season and it is highly unlikely the Mets slap a qualifying offer onto him. 

Philadelphia Phillies: Roman Quinn steals at least 30 bases, David Robertson finishes as a top-60 pitcher.

Simply put, both guys have been hurt for nearly the entire first half. Robertson pitched 6.2 innings before going down with an injury while Quinn has played in just 22 games between Triple-A and the majors while achieving 10 percent of my prediction.

Washington Nationals: Matt Adams hits 30 homers and Sean Doolittle is a top-3 reliever by dollars earned.

Adams has 13 homers in 2019 while playing part-time as he is selling out for power in hopes the club will pick up his mutual option for 2020 or he inflates his open market value. Adams has spiked his strikeout rate to a career-high 31 percent this season as he is up there to do one thing this year with the baseball flying out as it is. If he could be dealt to the American League to DH, the prediction could have a shot. In the second half, 18 homers is not impossible, but is rather improbable at this point. Doolitte has five wins and 19 saves, but his strikeout rate has taken a bit of a step back and his BABIP has skyrocketed to a career-high .341 this season. The extra baserunners have not helped his cause this year and he ranks 14th on the Earned Auction Value calculator for mixed league closers. 

National League Central (click to review research on predictions)

Chicago Cubs: Willson Contreras is not a top-10 catcher and Jose Quintana rebounds to become a top 40 starting pitcher.

Welp, this is off to a bad start. Contreras has been the best catcher in the National League this season and has thoroughly enjoyed the inflated baseball this season. His strikeout rate is up four percentage points, but his batting average is up 45 points and his slugging has climbed 186 points this year. He is making the kind of hard contact he did back in 2017 while increasing his flyball rate. Quintana has been very bad lately, and his current numbers have him at just five wins in 16 starts with a 4.21 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Quintana has not been punished by the home run ball as much this year as last year, but Joe Maddon has still overexposed him to the TTOP penalty this season and he has been blasted to the tune of a .329/.359/.541 line in that time. He has a 8.24 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP the third time through the order, but Maddon is a genius and we're not allowed to question his methods.

Cincinnati Reds: Yasiel Puig finishes as a top-20 outfielder and Sonny Gray is a top-80 pitcher.

Puig has a poor slash line of .247/.297/.479 and is helping neither standard league nor OBP league owners there. He is, however, helping in the counting categories with 19 home runs, 48 runs driven in and 13 stolen bases. He is a top-20 pure outfielder this season, but top 25 if we include guys who play multiple positions such as Bellinger, Marte, Merrifield and Bryant. Puig can still make this prediction happen. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray and Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson are getting results. Gray has a career-high 27 percent strikeout rate this season and has shaved a full run off his 2018 ERA. The problem has been terrible run support in Cincinnati's boom-or-bust lineup as he has just five wins in 17 outings despite the good ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Gray is  88th on our Earned Auction Dollar calculator in mixed leagues for overall pitchers, so there is still a chance he reaches top-80 status.

Milwaukee Brewers: Mauricio Dubon earns $10 in NL-Only leagues and Freddy Peralta leads the staff in dollars earned.

Dubon got leapfrogged by Keston Hiura and has been stuck in Triple-A all season, where he has hit .308/.346/.476 with 12 homers and eight steals. Peralta's 5.16  ERA and 1.38 WHIP have offset the gains from his 71 strikeouts in 59.1 innings. The talent is there for both, but the results have just not surfaced as I had hoped.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Elias Diaz is a top-12 catcher and Trevor Williams finishes outside the top 125 for pitchers.

Diaz is 26th on the Earned Auction Value calculator, but that is still two spots ahead of Buster Posey. Diaz got a very late start to the season due to injury , but one homer and 19 runs driven in  in 167 at-bats is well short of expectations. Williams is 181st on the calculator because three wins in 12 outings offsets the 1.26 WHIP. The 4.54 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 71.1 innings is serviceable, but lack of wins has "earned" him -$5 in standard mixed leagues this year.

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O'Neill finishes as a top-60 outfielder and Michael Wacha finishes outside the top-150 pitchers.

O'Neill failed miserably to hold onto his major league roster spot, striking out in 46 percent of his plate appearances. He has done better in Triple-A around an injury with a .528 slugging percentage in 154 plate appearances, but is still striking out 30 percent of the time there. Wacha has been even worse than predicted with five wins in 13 starts around a 5.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He has struggled mightily with the new baseball allowing two home runs per outing, and his FIP is nearly at 6.00. 

National League West (click here to review the research on predictions)

Arizona Diamondbacks: Jarrod Dyson steals at least 30 bases and Archie Bradley is a top-10 closer

Dyson is 19 for 21 in steals already this season and barring injury should easily make this prediction come true. He has jumped his on-base percentage nearly 70 points from last year, which has obviously made it easier for him to steal bases. He has gotten back to slapping the ball on the ground and using his speed. Bradley did not beat out Greg Holland in camp for the closer role, and has now become more of an opener than anything else. He has a career-high 27 percent strikeout rate, but a 12 percent walk rate and a 1.76 WHIP make him unusable in leverage situations.

Colorado Rockies: Garrett Hampson steals at least 40 bases and Scott Oberg is a top-150 pitcher.

Hampson is 10 of 14 on the basepaths this season, but most of that has come in Triple-A. He has a terrible .205/.239/.291 slash line at the major league level wasting all of his speed. He is another tough reminder that great stats in the minors do not always translate to success at the big league level. Oberg has been the 51st best pitcher in Earned Auction Value this season with a 1.90 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 46 strikeouts, five wins and three saves. He is the best thing going in that Colorado pen and should be the team's closer the rest of the way as Wade Davis has been horrible since his return from the injured list earlier this month.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Corey Seager finishes outside the overall top 125 and Hyun-Jin Ryu is a top-50 pitcher.

Seager is 191st on our overall Earned Auction Value calculator and is also out on the injured list with a hamstring issue. His 2019 slash line is in the ballpark of his 2017 line, but the playing time is the difference. That season, he had 613 plate appearances while he is stuck at 270 in 2019. The multiple surgeries in the offseason were my main reason for pessimism for him, and so far, that is playing out. Ryu, meanwhile, has been amazing and is leading all National League pitchers in value and trailing only Justin Verlander overall. He has made all of his starts, won nine of 16 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP and 94 strikeouts in 103 innings. That is an outstanding return on investment for a guy that had a 185 ADP late into the draft season.

San Diego Padres: Franmil Reyes hits 35 homers and Joey Lucchesi is a top-50 pitcher.

The Franimal has been awesome for homers, hitting 25 in 82 games while slugging .564. His .256 batting average is just below league average, and his 38 runs means he is driving himself in most of the time. The 35-homer total should not be a problem for him to get to by season's end. Lucchesi is throwing the new cutter this year. His ERA is nearly the same as it was last season, his strikeouts have dropped a bit and he has lowered his WHIP from 1.29 to 1.13. He is 54th on our Earned Auction Value pitcher board, so this too is attainable for him by season's end.

San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey finishes outside the top 12 at catcher and Dereck Rodriguez finishes outside the top-150 pitchers.

You could sprain a finger scrolling down to look for Posey on the catcher value list as 26th overall. The Giants are terrible, and he is aging poorly this season hitting a career-low .250 and just not driving the ball well at all. People are focused on Chris Davis and his terrible contract in Baltimore, but Posey is making $22.1M this season, and will do so again in each of the next two seasons. Yikes! Rodriguez has become a swing man in San Francisco this season and has not been able to outpitch the regression dragons that were coming his way. His home run rate has more than doubled, he is missing even fewer bats this season, and is pitching more to his true talent level than the mirage we saw last year.