This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are not a ton of day games across baseball Saturday, leaving us with 10 games to choose from for the main evening slate on DraftKings. While that does leave us with plenty of options, the group of starting pitchers who are set to take the mound is not very appealing. Let's examine the matchups and discuss home some ownership percentages might play out.
Pitching Overview
The biggest name among the starting pitchers is Patrick Corbin ($10,400). While he hasn't been as dominant as he was last year, he's still off to a good start with the Nationals by posting a 3.72 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP and a 29 percent strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is key since he made a significant jump in that category last year. He should be among the highest owned pitchers on the slate, although you might need to temper your expectations with him facing a dangerous Phillies' lineup.
When Marco Estrada (back) landed on the IL, the A's moved Chris Bassitt ($8,000) into their starting rotation. He's certainly rewarded them so far by allowing one run and recording 16 strikeouts across 12 innings. The strikeouts are especially surprising given his career 18.7 percent strikeout rate, so don't expect him to continue to provide such lofty production in that category. On the positive side, he's presented with a favorable matchup against a Pirates team that has scored the second-fewest runs (98) in the league. He also gets to avoid the DH with this game being played in Pittsburgh, so he's worth considering for your entry.
After being unable to find a team, Gio Gonzalez ($7,200) signed with the Yankees once they suffered some injuries to their starting rotation. It took him some time to get up to speed in the minors and he ultimately opted out of his contract when the Yankees still hadn't called him up to the big leagues. He quickly latched on with the Brewers, a team he finished the season with last year. His first start came against the Mets, who are the same team that he will be facing Saturday. They have a lot of left-handed hitters, so it's not all that surprising that he held them to two runs over five innings. He's allowed just a .288 wOBA to lefties during his career, so he makes for a viable DFS option in their rematch.
Key Values/Chalk
One of the first things to do when reviewing the hitting options is to see who the Orioles are facing. The Rays will have the benefit of beating up on their porous pitching staff over the weekend, including Saturday's starter Dylan Bundy. While he's done a good job recording strikeouts, Bundy is off to another terrible start with a 5.09 xFIP and a 1.52 WHIP. Expect the Rays to be among the ownership leaderboard.
Another team that should be popular is the Astros for their matchup with Trevor Cahill. Although Cahill had a fine season with the A's last year, a lot of his success came pitching in Oakland. He recorded a 4.70 xFIP and a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Now a member of the Angels, he's struggled with a 5.01 xFIP and a 1.35 WHIP across his first six starts.
The Dodgers have scored the second-most runs (179), so they are going to be a popular option more often than not. Expect that to be the case again for their matchup against Joey Lucchesi, who struggled to keep hitters inside the ballpark last year by allowing 1.6 HR/9. He's also had troubles keeping runners off base this year with a 1.45 WHIP.
Stacks
Rays vs. Bundy (Orioles)
Brandon Lowe (2B - $4,800), Nate Lowe (1B - $3,900), Tommy Pham (OF - $4,800)
Bundy recorded a .399 wOBA versus left-handed hitters last year, so the Lowes are a great place to start for a Rays stack. Nate is especially appealing at such a cheap price. He had a .243 ISO and a .429 wOBA at Triple-A before being called up. Pham is a great option to complete this trio who is hot of late, hitting 20-for-53 (.377) with two home runs, two doubles and two triples across his last 14 games.
Astros vs. Cahill (Angels)
Carlos Correa (SS- $4,700), Michael Brantley (OF - $4,600), Josh Reddick (OF- $3,900)
Correa is the player to build around for an Astros stack since he is 17-for-53 (.321) with four home runs and five doubles during his current 13-game hitting streak. His .313 wOBA was a disappointment last year, but his .282 BABIP was also almost 40 points lower than his career mark. Injuries had put a damper on Brantley's career, but he managed to stay mostly healthy last year and recorded a .359 wOBA. He has a .374 wOBA to start of his career with the Astros and continues to show an excellent eye at the plate with just a 12 percent strikeout rate. Finally, Reddick makes a lot of sense at this price since he has recorded a wRC+ of at least 128 against righties in four of the last five seasons.
Dodgers vs. Lucchesi (Padres)
Cody Bellinger (OF - $5,700), Justin Turner (3B- $3,900), Enrique Hernandez (2B - $4,300)
Bellinger is off to a historic start with his .432 ISO and 243 wRC+. Just as impressive is the fact that he's reduced his strikeout rate from 23.9 percent last year to 13.5 percent this season. It's hard to resist adding him to a Dodgers stack despite his lofty price tag. Turner has posted a wRC+ of at least 179 against left-handed pitchers in back-to-back seasons, so adding him at this price could be key, especially to help offset Bellinger's price. While Hernandez might not be the biggest of names on the Dodgers, he shouldn't be overlooked. He's followed up his .214 ISO and 118 wRC+ last year with a .238 ISO and a 125 wRC+ this season.
Reds vs. Dereck Rodriguez (Giants)
Jesse Winker (OF - $4,300), Derek Dietrich (OF- $4,000), Nick Senzel (OF - $4,300)
If you're looking for a stack with potentially low ownership percentages in tournament play, the Reds are appealing. They exploded for 11 runs Friday and received a jolt for their lineup with the addition of the rookie Senzel. He recorded a .389 wOBA at Triple-A last year and is one of the best prospects in baseball. Winker is also a highly-thought of young player who's .236 BABIP has put a damper on his start. The good news is that he's helped to make up for it with a .272 ISO and a .353 wOBA. Expect Dietrich to also be in the lineup after he launched two homers Friday. With Rodriguez recording a 4.56 xFIP and an 18.3 percent strikeout rate last year, he's not exactly an overpowering force.
