Collette Calls: Accountability Part 1 -- Hitter Bold Predictions

I do enjoy making the bold predictions each season, but I'll admit the look back at them are not always enjoyable. That said, it is also important to learn from mistakes so you don't repeat them again. Failure is not the opposite of success; it is part of success. That was either said by Michael Jordan or Michael Scott, I forget which.

Let's look back at the 30 bold predictions I made for hitters earlier this year before 2020 went crazy to see how each played out. For the projections that involved 162-game milestones, I'm adjusting them down to 37 percent of the season so we are comparing apples to apples. You can go back into the column archives to read the preseason predictions in their entirety. 

A.J. Pollock gets 204 plate appearances. This was originally 550 plate appearances. He was at 206 on the final day of the season as he has enjoyed a statistical resurgence in 2020 with some of his best overall numbers by expected stats. His 2020 numbers are in line with what he did in Arizona. He had a 233 ADP at the time of the prediction and is ranked 66th in overall earned auction value in 2020. 

Amed Rosario is a top-100 player. He is not even a top-400 player. Rosario has hit .245 and has as many steals in 2020 as you and I. It is tough to earn any value when your main skill is your legs, but you are not running. Twenty-four steals in 2018, 19 steals in 2019, none in 2020. His success rate was never great, but he has only attempted one steal all season. The .266 OBP certainly does not help matters.

Andrew McCutchen is a top-150 player. McCutchen exceeded expectations as he is 64th on the overall leaderboard of earned auction value on the season. He has been the ideal table-setter for Philadelphia and is one of 41 hitters to score at least 30 while driving in at least 30. Too bad he cannot pitch in relief.

Anthony Rendon finishes outside the top 40 overall. Chalk another one up to the Colton + Wolfman S.M.A.R.T. system, which believes players in new locations with new large contracts are risky early investments. Rendon went as high as 14 in early drafts and no lower than 31, but is 91st on the overall earned auction value leaderboard. 

Asdrubal Cabrera is a top-300 player. Cabrera finishes the season ranked 172nd on the overall board. The 31 RBIs stand out in what is otherwise a rather boring stat line, but the veteran played in 52 games when he lacked a clear path to playing time in the preseason. The prediction of him hitting higher in the lineup came true as he spend most of the season hitting third or fourth behind Trea Turner and Adam Eaton. 

Austin Allen is a top-15 Catcher. Sean Murphy never gave up the job, and Allen simply did not hit well enough to stay on the expanded roster. Catcher was bad overall this year, but Allen contributed nothing in any format. He was my C2 in two leagues, so this one hurt.

Chance Sisco is a top-20 catcher. Catcher predictions are tough, and this one failed as well. Sisco was hot out of the gate, but faded and never recovered. He was hitting .303 as late as Aug. 18, but has hit .190/.319/.276 since with just one home run.

Corey Dickerson is a top-60 outfielder. Dickerson ended the season 92nd in the outfield rankings. He was one of the many Marlins hit by COVID-19 early on, but put together a decent season hitting .2589 with 16 RBIs, 25 runs and seven home runs. 

DJ LeMahieu does not drive in 26 runs. He drove in 27 runs this year, despite missing some time with injury. He followed up his .392 average with runners in scoring position in 2019 with a .364 average this season, and did it the hard way as all of his RBIs with runners in scoring position came without a homer. Dude is just a great hitter and it will be interesting to see where he lands this winter as he enters free agency. 

Derek Fisher is a top-100 outfielder. I am not even sure Fisher is an outfielder after watching him play defense this year and dropping cans of corn. He ended up with a single homer in 39 plate appearances, and will be finding a new home this winter as a toolbox out of options. He flashes power, and flashes speed, but seems destined for a rebuilding team who needs to buy time for its younger class to develop. 

Greg Allen steals 11 bases. He stole 21 bases two seasons ago, and now has 10 combined over the last two seasons. He simply cannot hit, and he couldn't crack a very shallow Cleveland depth chart before being relegated to the bench. Cheap speed is cheap for a reason, and Davis was another reminder of that.

Ian Happ is a top-250 player. Happ has finished the year 101st overall on the leaderboard. Twelve homers, 27 runs, 28 runs driven in and a .258 average while playing in 57 games is type of production you want to see from a player that had an ADP of 347 in February. Remember the troubles Happ had with fastballs in 2019? He has hit .302 and slugged .604 off them in 2020. He as barely in the top 100 for outfielders in spring drafts, and he ends the season nearly making the top overall 100.

JaCoby Jones is a top-100 outfielder. Jones finished the season 124th in the outfield ranks even though he missed half the season with a hand injury. He last played on Sept. 1 and finished the season hitting .268/.333/.515 with 19 runs, 14 RBIs and five homers. He was the 121st outfielder off the board in drafts, so at the end of the day, he met expectations. However, he was on pace to do so much more before the injury.

J.D. Martinez is a top-10 player. See last week's installment of this column. Easily my biggest impact miss of the season because I was heavily invested in Martinez shares this season.

Jose Martinez hits 11 home runs. I am done giving bold predictions on players with the last name Martinez. Jose was acquired by Tampa Bay to hit lefties, and then the division lost most of the lefty pitchers, and he lost his playing time before being dealt to the Cubs. He began the season losing time to COVID-19 and hitting .182 with two homers shows he opted out of the season at the plate.

Josh Bell is a top-50 overall player. Bell finishes the year quite a few terciles below this prediction coming in at 274 overall. He was a replacement level hitter in standard mixed leagues earning no positive dollar value. Bell has been downright abysmal against non-fastballs this season with a xBA of .174 on breaking balls and .214 on offspeed pitches. Last season, those numbers were .309 and .255 respectively. Bell had 16 of his 37 homers off non-fastballs in 2019, but just one of his eight homers this year has come off a non-fastball.

Josh Donaldson is a top-5 MVP candidate. Donaldson missed more than half the season with injury, but his skills have remained rather consistent in his older years. He still punishes the baseball, takes a high amount of walks, but has been more groundball happy this year than ever before, and many of them have been pull-side grounders. That is how a career .272 hitter hits 50 points below his career average in 2020.

Josh VanMeter is a top-350 player. A big swing and a miss, much like Van Meter's 2020 numbers. His strikeout rate jumped nearly 10 percentage points, and his overall triple-slash resembles what AL pitchers produced in 2019. 

Kevin Cron out-earns his brother. Kevin went 0-for-17 with seven strikeouts this season while C.J. hit .190 with four homers before losing the season to a knee injury in the field.

Marcell Ozuna is a top-15 outfielder. Ozuna finished the season as the top outfielder. Ozuna has been amazing in the loaded Atlanta lineup providing amazing return for a guy with an ADP of 108 as late as early March. He has been the sixth-most valuable player in fantasy baseball this season. His free agency will be an interesting follow this winter.

Mauricio Dubon earns $10 in NL Only leagues. Dubon earned $9 entering Sunday in 12 team-NL only formats, playing nearly every day with a .275 average, 20 runs, 18 RBIs and two steals.  I'm taking the win here as he homered in his final game of the season to get to $10.

Myles Straw is a top-25 shortstop. Again, cheap speed is cheap for a reason. Straw had his opportunities this season, but simply did not hit enough with them and the six steals were offset by the lack of any other production.

Nick Solak earns $15. Solak finishes the season earning $6 with a .267 average, seven steals, 23 RBIs and 26 runs. It is not a bad line, but not the one we expected after what he showcased in 2019 with Texas. Perhaps the new park hurt him, but really expected him to do more.

Nicky Lopez is a top-30 second baseman. Lopez hit .205 on the season, but worse yet, was 0-for-5 in the steals department. How is that even possible??

Omar Narvaez is not a top-20 catcher. He was not even a top-40 catcher as he hit .176 with two homers, 10 RBIs, eight runs, but Milwaukee has given him 40 games in the lineup because his defense has been surprisingly good this season. However, that .176/.294/.269 line is not what people wanted to see after what he did in 2019 for Seattle.

Sam Hilliard is a top-50 outfielder. I do not have any tattoos, and I really do not plan on getting one in my lifetime. If I do get one, it will say, "Never count on Colorado to do the right thing with young talent." Hilliard received inconsistent playing time, and saw his strikeout rate surge from 26 to 36 percent around the six homers he hit. It would be nice to see him in the lineup everyday to see what he is capable of producing. 

Shed Long is a top-20 second baseman. Long's season ended prematurely  with a stress fracture in his leg, but his numbers prior to the injury were awful. His strikeouts went up, the average cratered and he was forced to the bottom of the lineup before his injury.

Tommy Edman finishes outside the top 175. Edman is 176 overall with his .255 average, 29 runs, 26 RBIs, five homers and two steals in 54 games. Edman had an ADP of 128 when the prediction was made, and had been drafted as high as 101st overall.

Trent Grisham is a top-50 overall outfielder. Not only did Grisham do that, but he is a top-40 overall player this year going double-double with homers and steals with 42 runs scored, 26 RBIs and a .251 average. Imagine where Milwaukee would be if they had kept him for 2020? Grisham's OBP skills are everything that San Diego lacked in 2019 and have exploited in 2020.

Yasmani Grandal is the top catcher in 2020. Grandal is ninth overall on the catcher leaderboard with surprises such as Austin Nola and Isiah Kiner-Falefa ahead of him. The catching position has ended up being better than expected with some surprising offensive seasons, but Grandal failed to take advantage of the new park and new strong lineup around him.

Overall, I hit on 10 of these 30, so I'll need 14 of the 30 pitching predictions to come through to repeat last year's overall success.