This article is part of our Closer Encounters series.
We're a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the relief pitcher market has finally settled, which means it's time for a rankings update. I also have a few drafts under my belt, in which I was able put my initial 2024 closer rankings to the test.
The free-agent signing that provided the most clarity for this exercise was Josh Hader to the Astros. The range of impact for other recent relief pitcher signings varies:
- David Robertson to the Rangers
- Robert Stephenson to the Angels
- Aroldis Chapman to the Pirates
- Hector Neris to the Cubs
- Woo-suk Go to the Padres
- Jordan Hicks to the Giants, as a starter
- Yariel Rodriguez to the Blue Jays
- Adam Ottavino to the Mets
Below the updated rankings, I've included several notable risers and fallers. As always, you are welcome to share your thoughts in the comments section.
Also, be sure to bookmark our Closer Grid for all the latest closer updates, including team blurbs, hierarchy changes and my closer-in-waiting rankings.
2024 Closer Rankings 2.0
Change | Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Rufe's Save Projection | Team Save % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | 1 | 1 | MIL | 35 | 80% | ||
+2 | 2 | 1 | NYM | 33 | 85% | ||
+3 | 3 | 1 | MIN | 32 | 80% | Slight SV boost pushes him up a few spots | |
-1 | 4 | 1 | ATL | 37 | 80% | ||
-3 | 5 | 1 | HOU | 33 | 80% | Slight SV hit w/strong alt. options | |
+2 | 6 | 2 | CLE | 35 |
We're a few weeks away from the start of spring training and the relief pitcher market has finally settled, which means it's time for a rankings update. I also have a few drafts under my belt, in which I was able put my initial 2024 closer rankings to the test.
The free-agent signing that provided the most clarity for this exercise was Josh Hader to the Astros. The range of impact for other recent relief pitcher signings varies:
- David Robertson to the Rangers
- Robert Stephenson to the Angels
- Aroldis Chapman to the Pirates
- Hector Neris to the Cubs
- Woo-suk Go to the Padres
- Jordan Hicks to the Giants, as a starter
- Yariel Rodriguez to the Blue Jays
- Adam Ottavino to the Mets
Below the updated rankings, I've included several notable risers and fallers. As always, you are welcome to share your thoughts in the comments section.
Also, be sure to bookmark our Closer Grid for all the latest closer updates, including team blurbs, hierarchy changes and my closer-in-waiting rankings.
2024 Closer Rankings 2.0
Change | Rank | Tier | Player | Team | Rufe's Save Projection | Team Save % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
- | 1 | 1 | MIL | 35 | 80% | ||
+2 | 2 | 1 | NYM | 33 | 85% | ||
+3 | 3 | 1 | MIN | 32 | 80% | Slight SV boost pushes him up a few spots | |
-1 | 4 | 1 | ATL | 37 | 80% | ||
-3 | 5 | 1 | HOU | 33 | 80% | Slight SV hit w/strong alt. options | |
+2 | 6 | 2 | CLE | 35 | 90% | Lack of Ks, but ideal for builds with frontline/high-K SPs | |
-2 | 7 | 2 | SF | 34 | 80% | ||
-1 | 8 | 2 | TOR | 33 | 75% | ||
+2 | 9 | 2 | LAD | 28 | 65% | No adjustment to SV projection, but gets a boost with FA RPs landing elsewhere. Top-5 upside. | |
-1 | 10 | 2 | ARI | 30 | 80% | ||
-1 | 11 | 2 | PIT | 28 | 80% | ||
+6 | 12 | 2 | BAL | 28 | 65% | Climbs with higher proj SV Share | |
-1 | 13 | 2 | TB | 27 | 60% | ||
-1 | 14 | 3 | CIN | 29 | 70% | ||
-1 | 15 | 3 | NYY | 26 | 60% | 60% share would be highest w/Yankees to date | |
+1 | 16 | 3 | MIA | 24 | 60% | Ks will be there, but can improved ratios stick? | |
+3 | 17 | 3 | SEA | 23 | 50% | Would be higher if not for health risk - likely Top 10 | |
+1 | 18 | 3 | STL | 21 | 50% | ||
+3 | 19 | 3 | BOS | 24 | 60% | Could easily tally 30+ SV, but health concerns make me tepid | |
+7 | 20 | 4 | SEA | 14 | 30% | 20+ SV upside w/Munoz health | |
- | 21 | 4 | PHI | 17 | 40% | Slight SV hit but my fav PHI closer | |
+1 | 22 | 4 | SD | 24 | 55% | ||
+1 | 23 | 4 | DET | 24 | 55% | ||
+4 | 24 | 4 | TEX | 16 | 40% | 175 career SVs to Leclerc's 40 | |
+5 | 25 | 4 | TEX | 16 | 40% | Still lots to like even w/Robertson | |
-3 | 26 | 4 | LAA | 18 | 50% | SV hit due to Stephenson signing | |
+6 | 27 | 4 | CHC | 15 | 37.5% | SV boost with FA RPs signing elsewhere | |
-3 | 28 | 5 | OAK | 11 | 35% | ||
+6 | 29 | 5 | WAS | 14 | 40% | Nats' best RP, but still a major health risk | |
+1 | 30 | 5 | PHI | 13 | 30% | ||
-2 | 31 | 5 | WAS | 14 | 40% | ||
+11 | 32 | 5 | MIA | 10 | 25% | ||
+1 | 33 | 5 | TB | 11 | 25% | ||
+29 | 34 | 5 | CHC | 12 | 30% | Biggest jump in rankings due to landing spot + Alzolay's health history | |
+3 | 35 | 5 | LAA | 9 | 25% | Still pessimistic on SV proj. even after ideal landing spot w/LAA | |
+3 | 36 | 5 | LAD | 9 | 20% | ||
-1 | 37 | 5 | NYY | 9 | 20% | ||
-1 | 38 | 5 | DET | 11 | 25% | ||
-24 | 39 | 5 | HOU | 5 | 12% | Could still close some, but how many? | |
-14 | 40 | 6 | HOU | 2 | 5% | Takes hit to SV projection | |
+18 | 41 | 6 | PHI | 4 | 10% | Overlooked in initial rankings, potential for SVs in PHI is perhaps even greater than this | |
-10 | 42 | 6 | PIT | 4 | 11% | ||
+1 | 43 | 6 | ATL | 5 | 10% | ||
+4 | 44 | 6 | BAL | 4 | 10% | Viewed as SP long-term | |
-4 | 45 | 7 | COL | 16 | 50% | ||
-1 | 46 | 7 | KC | 13 | 30% | ||
+2 | 47 | 7 | SD | 8 | 20% | Is the market favorite for SV in SD, but he's a huge health risk | |
+2 | 48 | 7 | BAL | 7 | 15% | ||
-3 | 49 | 7 | BOS | 6 | 15% | ||
-3 | 50 | 7 | STL | 8 | 20% | ||
NR | 51 | 7 | SD | 6 | 13.5% | ||
NR | 52 | 7 | STL | 6 | 15% | Nice landing spot via trade from TB. Can he stay healthy? | |
-2 | 53 | 7 | CHW | 9 | 30% | ||
-1 | 54 | 8 | TOR | 4 | 10% | ||
+2 | 55 | 8 | KC | 8 | 20% | ||
+2 | 56 | 8 | KC | 8 | 20% | ||
-15 | 57 | 8 | TEX | 5 | 12.5% | ||
-6 | 58 | 8 | CHC | 4 | 10% | ||
-5 | 59 | 8 | MIA | 4 | 10% | ||
NR | 60 | 8 | TOR | 3 | 5% | ||
-6 | 61 | 8 | ARI | 4 | 10% | ||
-6 | 62 | 8 | OAK | 6 | 20% | ||
-3 | 63 | 9 | ATL | 3 | 5% | ||
- | 64 | 9 | PHI | 3 | 8% | ||
- | 65 | 9 | MIL | 2 | 5% | ||
NR | 66 | 9 | SEA | 4 | 10% | Topa trade (MIN) pushes him up depth chart | |
-6 | 67 | 9 | LAA | 3 | 8% | ||
- | 68 | 9 | WAS | 3 | 10% | ||
-3 | 69 | 9 | PHI | 2 | 5% | ||
-8 | 70 | 9 | LAA | 4 | 10% |
Dropped out of the Top 70: Jordan Hicks (previously #40 - projected to start for San Francisco), Tyler Holton (#67 - others are more appealing for save speculation), Ian Hamilton (#69, ditto), Joe Kelly (#70 - ditto)
RISERS
Jhoan Duran, Twins: A few weeks ago, I joined my first NFBC draft since October and put my initial closer rankings to the test. At pick 51 of a 12-team draft-and-hold, several top-end closers were sitting at the top of my queue. With Williams, Diaz and Hader off the board, I had the luxury of choosing between Iglesias (initial ranking: third), Doval (fifth), Duran (sixth) and Clase (eighth). I could have just taken Iglesias without hesitation — I am still bullish on him for 2024 — but Duran's strikeout and ratio upside forced me to rethink the decision.
Duran racked up 27 saves last season, good for 15th in the league and a 71.1 percent team save share. This was with Minnesota finishing in the bottom-third of the league with 38 saves overall. I project 40 saves for the Twins in 2024, but as likely contenders for the American League Central division crown, they could easily surpass that total. Couple that with a projected 80 percent team save share for Duran — up from 75 percent in my initial rankings — and he could be looking at 32-plus saves in 2024. Not to mention, the strength of Duran's competition for saves in Minnesota is much weaker than the alternate options in Atlanta.
Evan Phillips, Dodgers: I didn't adjust Phillips' save projection at all, but the fact that all of the notable free-agent relief pitchers signed elsewhere gives him a slight boost in this rankings update. I even considered ranking him ahead of Jordan Romano and Camilo Doval. That's how good Phillips is. Unfortunately, even a decent boost (+10 percent) to last season's 54.5 percent team save share still leaves him short of 30 saves. Saves are the name of the game when it comes to ranking closers, and while there are countless other considerations, the saves category is pretty critical. However, if Phillips receives a 70 or 75 percent save share in 2024, then we're talking about a top-five closer in the league for one of the best teams in baseball.
Craig Kimbrel, Orioles: James Anderson and I shared our love for Kimbrel when I joined him on the podcast in early January. At the time, I felt I was too low with my initial ranking (18th) and save projection (24 with a 55 percent team save share). While Kimbrel hasn't had more than a 58 percent team save share since 2018, he's been outstanding of late and is the clear-cut primary closer in Baltimore with Felix Bautista (elbow) expected to miss the majority, if not all, of the 2024 campaign. Yennier Cano is Kimbrel's greatest competition for saves, but he only recorded four of Baltimore's nine saves after Bautista's injury last year. As such, I increased Kimbrel's projected team save share to 65 percent for this update, but even that could be too low for one of the best closers in baseball history. Kimbrel is a fringe top-10 closer option for 2024 that is currently going way too low in drafts.
Matt Brash, Mariners: Similar to Duran, Brash's ascension up these rankings came down decisions I made within the draft room. Brash or Carlos Estevez? Robert Stephenson? Mason Miller? Kyle Finnegan? The answer every time has been Brash, who will reprise his workhorse role at the back end of the Mariners' bullpen in 2024. The 25-year-old was second among qualified relievers last season with 107 strikeouts and made important strides lowering his walk rate. I already have him projected for double-digit saves, but I firmly believe he has the upside for 25 or more since Andres Munoz has trouble staying healthy. Munoz is outstanding in his own right, but he spent 69 days on the injured list last season due to a right shoulder strain and has undergone Tommy John surgery twice. Not to mention, Seattle recently traded Justin Topa, who was a reliable high-leverage arm last season. I think Brash's stock will continue to rise over these next few months. He's one of the relievers I'm most willing to jump a few rounds ahead of ADP just to make sure I get him.
Hector Neris, Cubs: When Adbert Alzolay is healthy, closing duties are his. He took the job towards the middle of last season and ran with it, recording 21 of the Cubs' 23 saves from June through August. Unfortunately, Alzolay has spent time on the injured list during each of the past three seasons, all with different injuries. Should Alzolay once again miss time in 2024, Chicago has an experienced fallback option in Neris. The veteran righty only has five saves over the past two seasons combined but has 89 for his career after an extended run closing games for Philadelphia between 2017 and 2021. He's coming off an outstanding season in high leverage, posting career-best marks with 31 holds and a 1.71 ERA. While his ERA is likely to regress back to somewhere near his 3.24 career mark, Neris could be in line for double-digit saves, even without a primary save share. Julian Merryweather could also earn save opportunities, but Neris' experience and consistency gives him the edge for me should Alzolay miss any time.
FALLERS
Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Astros: I'm really disheartened that I had to include Abreu on the fallers list. I was really excited about the possibility of him taking over closing duties in Houston this season, especially after Pressly showed signs of a potential decline last year. Pressly has a $14 million mutual option for 2025, which may ultimately prove too costly for the Astros if his strikeout and hard-hit rates continue to trend in the wrong direction. Alas, Abreu will have to settle as one of the league's premier setup men alongside Pressly, who takes the biggest tumble down the rankings due to the Astros' addition of Josh Hader. I'm still projecting a handful of saves for Pressly and a few for Abreu, as there's likely to be a 20-to-25 percent save share to be split between the non-Hader relievers in Houston.
Josh Hader, Astros: Wait, what? Hader is on the fallers list too?!? This has nothing to do with Hader's talent and is more so a testament to how good Pressly and Abreu are as alternate options. In fact, I would still be very happy with Hader as a Closer #1 on my fantasy team. However, now that the talented southpaw is in Houston, he no longer has to close out 90-plus percent of his team's games like he did with San Diego last year. Hader's bullpen mates weren't as strong as they will be in 2024. Pressly and Abreu can easily step in and handle closing duties when Hader needs a night off, requiring fewer back-to-back outings from the left-hander. With a new manager in town, there's also a slight possibility he shares the role with Pressly (or Abreu for that matter), lending to a 65 or 70 percent team save share versus the 80 percent I have him projected for. This amounts to 33 saves, which is fewer than I had initially projected him for when he was still a free agent. Meanwhile, Hader has been the number one closer off the board in NFBC Draft Champions leagues ever since he signed with the Astros. The difference in ADP compared to my updated ranking of Hader makes him a faller for me. But again, if he falls beyond ADP in a draft I'm in, I'll happily scoop him up at the right price.
Carlos Estevez, Angels - The Angels recently overhauled their bullpen, re-signing southpaw Matt Moore while adding Robert Stephenson, Adam Kolarek, Luis Garcia and Adam Cimber. The Stephenson signing, in particular, clouds Estevez's save upside for 2024, especially since the latter will be a free agent after the season. There's also Ben Joyce and Jose Soriano, who are upside relievers from this 'pen that could prove capable of handling closing duties. As such, I shaved six saves off of Estevez's projection and knocked him down a few spots in these rankings. Estevez is likely to open 2024 as the Angels' closer, but how long maintains the role will depend on his performance.
Kyle Finnegan, Nationals - The more I thought about drafting Finnegan as a potential second closer for my fantasy baseball teams, the more I realized I just can't pull the trigger. Sure, he was Washington's highest-leverage reliever last season by WPA and gmLI while finishing 14th in the league with a career-high 28 saves, but he was abysmal to close out 2023. Finnegan posted a 7.63 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over the final month-and-a-half and finished with career-worst strikeout and home run rates. As the Nationals play more competitive ball, they may be better served shifting closing duties to Hunter Harvey, who is Washington's best reliever.
Stay tuned for version 3.0 of these rankings around mid-to-late March, right before the home stretch of fantasy baseball drafts.
