2024 Closer Rankings

Happy New Year — welcome to the 2024 fantasy baseball season!

After less-than-ideal results in 2023 and a month-long break during October, my strict focus ever since has been relief pitchers. I've written more than 125 relief pitcher outlooks for 2024 and have been continuously updating our Closer Grid to prepare for the upcoming season. I'm excited to share these initial closer rankings with you in hopes that you'll reach your save category targets throughout draft season. I've included my personal save projection for each relief pitcher listed, but keep in mind these numbers may differ from the RotoWire save projection seen on our site rankings and player pages.

Step one of my process is forecasting team win and save totals for 2024. I explained how I go about this in last year's article. Here are the results of this exercise, though it's important to note several top sports betting sites have not yet released over/under totals for the 2024 MLB season:

Next, I list out probable closer candidates for each team, then review each player's percentage of team saves from recent seasons. I also consider their history of saves, the strength of alternate options within each bullpen, leverage index, arbitration and free-agency status and trade risk before assigning their percentage of team saves for 2024. I then multiply that percentage by the team's total save projection to come up with the player's individual save projection.

Now to the fun stuff — my 2024 closer rankings!

Below the rankings, I've included several of my closer targets and fades for 2024. As always, you are welcome to share your thoughts in the comments section.

At the time of this writing, many free-agent relief pitchers remain unsigned, including Josh Hader, David Robertson, Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris and Yariel Rodriguez . A handful of these free-agents could significantly impact these rankings depending on where they sign, while the others may just have minimal to moderate impact.

2024 Closer Rankings

Unranked relievers whom I have projected for 5-plus saves: Giovanny Gallegos (6), Dany Jimenez (6), Tyler Kinley (5) and John McMillon (5).

Upside relievers who could make an appearance in the updated rankings later this spring: Aaron Ashby, Prelander Berroa, Yariel Rodriguez, Nick Martinez, Chad Green and Colin Poche.

Please note: any ADP data referenced below is based on the past three weeks of NFBC Draft Champions drafts.

TARGETS

Raisel Iglesias, Braves: Had Iglesias not missed the first month of last season with a right shoulder strain, he may have challenged for the National League lead in saves. He finished with 33 tied for eighth in the league, which was still an impressive total given the missed time. The Cuban native also had no trouble stepping right back into closing duties after after pitching in a setup role for Atlanta during the second-half of 2022. Performance-wise, Iglesias was consistent as ever, though his WHIP did suffer with an elevated BABIP. A pitch-mix adjustment saw him throw his changeup as his primary weapon for the first time in his career. He increased his usage of the pitch by 11.3 percent, which makes sense given it's his best offering besides his slider. On the flip side, Iglesias' fastball (.327 BAA) and sinker got crushed (.519 BAA) last season. If that trend continues, it will be interesting to see if the veteran closer scales back on those pitches. Given his consistency and experience, Iglesias is once again a top-five closer option for 2024. I have him projected to lead the league in saves.

Evan Phillips, Dodgers: Phillips was outstanding for the second year in a row, converting a career-high 24 saves while once again leading qualified relievers with a 0.83 WHIP. The 29-year-old only accounted for 54.5% of the Dodgers' 44 saves, but he was clearly their top reliever, earning save opportunities early in the season. While he did go long stretches without recording a save, Phillips was still valuable for fantasy purposes. He boosted ratios while striking out batters at a respectable 28.2 percent clip. His Statcast page is painted red, with a 115.1 mph (max exit velocity) rocket off the bat of Byron Buxton as his only real blemish. Meanwhile, his 88.2 mph average exit velocity was still above-average (67th percentile). Phillips is establishing himself as one of the top high-leverage relievers in the game. If you could guarantee 30-plus saves, he'd likely be a top-five closer, but since the Dodgers aren't exclusive with his usage in the ninth inning, he'll likely settle in the 10-15 range for 2024 drafts.

Pete Fairbanks, Rays: No stranger to the injury bug, Fairbanks hit the IL twice (for forearm inflammation and hip inflammation) during the first half of 2023. However, once he returned in mid-June, he surprisingly stayed healthy for the rest of the season, establishing career-best marks in appearances (49), innings (45.1) and strikeouts (68). He also converted a career-high 25 saves, as Rays manager Kevin Cash altered his late-inning approach. Quite simply, when Fairbanks was healthy, he was the Rays primary closer. The role was well-deserved, as the 29-year-old closed out 2023 in dominant fashion. He struck out 51 batters in 28 innings after the All-Star break and finished the year with a 2.58 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He did so by throwing more sliders than ever (49.9 percent pitch usage), no longer leaning on his upper-90s four-seamer as his primary offering. With health, Fairbanks is likely a top-10 closer in the league, but even if he misses some time, he's still a fringe top-10 option.

Orion Kerkering, Phillies: A fifth-round pick of the Phillies in 2022, Kerkering opened last season in the minors with the team's Single-A affiliate. He ended 2023 pitching high-leverage innings for Philadelphia in the NLCS, as the 22-year-old right-hander was simply too dominant for the minors. Kerkering posted a remarkable 1.51 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 79:12 K:BB ratio over 53.2 innings while advancing through four levels. The South Florida alum boasts one of the most unique pitches in the game, an 86 mph sweeping slider with 18.6 inches of horizontal break that he threw 85 percent of the time. The average velocity of a sweeper or slider with 17-plus inches of horizontal break is a mere 80.6 mph, putting Kerkering's pitch on another level. Not to mention, his sinker approached triple digits, topping out at 98.8 mph during the playoffs. It's clear Kerkering has the stuff of a future closer, and I'm banking on that opportunity coming as early as 2024. He's been the 42nd relief pitcher off the board with a recent ADP of 410. I'm willing to gamble on his upside in the 27th round.

Bryan Abreu, Astros: Abreu passed up a few relievers in Houston's high-leverage hierarchy last season. Serving as the Astros' primary setup man in the eighth inning, Abreu established career-highs across multiple categories in 2023, including games played (72), innings (72.0), saves (five) and holds (24). The 26-year-old posted elite ratios and was one of five relievers to record 100-plus strikeouts last season, hitting that mark right on the nose after throwing far more sliders (58.7 percent usage, +13.7 percent difference from 2022). The right-hander's upper-90s fastball was also more effective (.165 BA, 37.3 percent whiff), supplementing his slider as a secondary strikeout pitch. Abreu sure looks like Houston's future closer, so don't be surprised if he receives even more save chances in 2024. I'm projecting double-digit saves and a fringe top-25 ranking among relievers.

Scott Effross, Yankees: Effross, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2022 and missed all of last season, hopes to be ready for spring training after progressing to bullpens and live batting practice over the fall. The sidearmer has been limited to 71.1 innings in the majors since making his debut in 2021, but he's been highly successful with a 2.78 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 80:16 K:BB ratio. Prior to his injury, Effross was an emerging reliever in the league whose return is highly anticipated. He should have a high-leverage role for the Yankees to open 2024 if health prevails this spring. With that kind of projected role, it's somewhat surprising that he's been off fantasy radars. He's only been drafted once over the past seven NFBC DCs.

FADES

Emmanuel Clase, Guardians: Clase led the league in saves for the second straight year, tallying a career-high 44 of the Guardians' 47 total saves while earning his second consecutive All-Star nomination. His 93.6 percent team save share led the league again, as former Guardians manager Terry Francona was very straightforward with his bullpen hierarchy. However, Clase regressed in many categories, which new manager Stephen Vogt may consider when determining bullpen roles for 2024. Clase posted career-worst marks with nine losses and 12 blown saves, the latter leading all relievers. He also posted the worst ratios of his young career, and while his 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP were fine for typical reliever standards, they weren't Clase-like. Hitters simply made more contact against him, which inflated his BABIP. His strikeout rate also plummeted to a career-low 21.2 percent. Clase should continue to be among the league leaders in the saves category, but the rest of his metrics deter me from drafting him as the fourth closer off the board (ADP 48).

Alexis Diaz, Reds: Diaz emerged last year as one of the best closers for fantasy purposes, boasting nine wins and 37 saves with solid ratios and a 30 percent strikeout rate. While his save total was fourth-highest in the majors, Diaz only accounted for 69.8 percent of the Reds' 53 saves. Cincinnati was more competitive last year, but they also led the league in one-run games and recorded a save in a league-leading 64.6 percent of their 82 wins. As such, expecting Diaz to approach the 40-save mark again in 2024 might be a mistake, especially given the 27-year-old's perennially high walk rate. Diaz did adjust his pitch usage, opting to throw far more sliders (51.5 percent usage) than he did in 2022 (35.2 percent). It was one of the best sliders in baseball per Statcast Run Value (16), but his four-seamer lost some velocity (-1.2 mph) and wasn't as effective. Diaz also faded down the stretch, possibly due to a career-high 71 appearances. Look for him to be one of the top 10 closers off the board, but don't lock in a repeat of last season's stats.

Ryan Pressly, Astros: With health mostly on his side, Pressly finished with 30-plus saves for the second consecutive year. However, signs of a potential decline were evident, as Pressly posted career-worst marks with a 43.5 percent hard hit rate and a fourth-percentile average exit velocity (91.3 mph). The right-hander's 27.6 percent strikeout rate — while still well above average — dipped by 8.3 percentage points and was his lowest since 2017. On the plus side, Pressly remained dominant at times, including a 16-game stretch early in the season with a 1.13 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 16:1 K:BB over 16 innings. Pressly's performance in 2024 will determine whether it will be his final year in Houston, as he has a mutual option for 2025. With a new manager in town, his security as the Astros' closer may not be as high as it once was.

Andres Munoz, Mariners: Munoz broke out in 2022 and carried that momentum into last season by recording Seattle's first save of 2023. Unfortunately, any hopes of him taking on more expansive closing duties were put on hold, as the right-hander suffered a shoulder sprain after just a few appearances. Munoz missed two months of action and was limited to setup duties upon his return with Paul Sewald locking down the ninth inning. When Sewald was traded, Munoz finally got some run as the M's closer. He recorded 11 of Seattle's 18 saves after the trade and finished the year with a career-high 13 overall. His strikeout and walk rates regressed a bit, but he maintained a 99th percentile whiff percentage (39.4%) and his groundball rate (59%) spiked after he implemented a sinker (19% pitch usage). Munoz enters 2024 as the favorite for closing duties in Seattle, but don't expect a 70-plus percent team save share. Munoz's health, plus the emergence of Matt Brash, Justin Topa and potentially Prelander Berroa, make a 50-to-60 percent share more realistic.

Adbert Alzolay, Cubs: 2023 finally offered some clarity on Alzolay's role, as he was healthy for much of the season and made a career-high 58 appearances — all in relief. Many were multi-inning outings, especially early on, but Alzolay quickly established himself as Chicago's best reliever and took over closing duties in June. The right-hander secured 21 of the Cubs' 23 saves from June through August, but he suffered a forearm strain in September that required an IL stint. It wasn't serious, but Alzolay has missed time during each of the past three seasons with various injuries. Drafting him carries plenty of risk, but he's been effective when healthy. Yet Alzolay is not guaranteed to open 2024 as the Cubs' closer, with the team expected to be active in the relief market.

Stay tuned to our Closer Grid throughout the offseason for all the latest closer updates.