Bernie on the Scene: Evaluating NL Rookie Hitters

This begins a four-part series I will be writing about rookie performances in the shortened 2020 "sprint" season from my scouting perspective. 

I will assess the performances of high-profile hitters and pitchers. Today, I will look at National League hitters, followed by National League pitchers, American League hitters and finally, American League pitchers.

My intent is to provide some insight on these important young players for next year's fantasy drafts and auctions.

Statistics are as of Sept. 26.

Shogo Akiyama, OF, Reds

I still don't understand why the Reds needed Akiyama, a 2020 international free-agent out of Japan. The team is deep in outfielders with a 40-man roster that includes Aristides Aquino, Nick Castellanos, Brian Goodwin, Travis Jankowski, Mark Payton, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker in addition to Akiyama. Clearly, Jankowski can play a solid center field.  They parted ways with Boog Powell in September. Phillip Ervin was claimed off waivers by Seattle in September. And rookie outfielders Mike Siani, and Austin Hendrick are waiting in the wings.

They didn't need Akiyama, and he didn't really produce. Yes, he was a good defensive outfielder in Japan. He did, however, struggle offensively at the beginning of the short season and didn't get going until early September. He signed a three-year, $20M contract.

At 31, Akiyama really doesn't have much to offer the Reds on offense next year. He has virtually no power and he has struggled to make hard contact. He does, however, put the bat on the ball. His strikeout rate is ideal for a leadoff hitter — 33 strikeouts in 178 plate appearances.

Next year: There are far better outfield candidates for your roster. Yes, he stole six bases, but he was thrown out three times as well. He is taking space and financial resources on a Reds roster that could be used elsewhere. I'll pass, thank you.

Jake Cronenworth, INF, Padres — My Rookie of the Year

What a spark this 26-year-old rookie has delivered for the Padres.

Cronenworth will get Rookie of the Year consideration, and may win the award. He is versatile and exciting to watch.

Cronenworth was drafted by the Rays in 2015 and traded to the Padres along with Tommy Pham in the Hunter Renfroe deal. It was a Rays mistake.

Cronenworth has a compact swing and excellent contact ability. His eye-hand coordination is superb. He is more a gap hitter than a home run threat, but he has the ability to get on base and score runs. 

A pitcher at one time, Cronenworth has a solid arm from anywhere in the infield, but the Padres have settled on using him at second base. CJ Abrams is being groomed as a shortstop with a likely 2022 arrival date. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team's shortstop. Manny Machado is the team's third baseman. Where will Abrams fit? Second base? Be careful about making a long-term commitment to Cronenworth as an infielder. But perhaps the club likes Cronenworth enough to move Abrams or Tatis Jr. to the outfield. It would and should be interesting.

Cronenworth cooled off as pitchers adjusted to him, but he is a credible option.

Next year: Cronenworth will begin the season as the Padres second baseman. It will be his job to lose. Enjoy him for the year, but as I noted above, the Padres roster could get crowded after next year. I will look for him in drafts, but I won't overpay.

Nico Hoerner, INF, Cubs

Hoerner got plenty of solid playing time in the sprint season. He played second base and shortstop, with a few appearances at third base and the outfield. So he truly is a versatile guy that can be spotted on fantasy roster benches.

The results this year were less than exciting. He didn't hit for average or power. Most of his hits, and there were only 24, were singles. He has little to no power.

A 2018 first-round draft pick, Hoerner has quick hands at the plate and he uses a very measured stroke. He knows he isn't a power hitter. He might provide stolen bases over the course of a season, as he has a quick first step.

Next year: I would expect Hoerner and David Bote to get playing time at second for the Cubs. I doubt they'll offer Jason Kipnis a contract. Other than Bote, there really aren't any major threats to Hoerner's 2021 playing time in the Cubs dismal farm system. I'll take a pass on Hoerner. I don't think he brings much to fantasy lineups compared to other second baseman I trust more.

Alec Bohm, INF, Phillies

To be clear, I am a huge fan of Alec Bohm's bat. I am not a fan of Alec Bohm's defensive liabilities. He is a DH. But the Phillies have played him at his natural position of third base, at first base and at designated hitter.

Bohm is a big, big guy. At 6-foot-5, 218, he can pound the ball. The best is yet to come.

He's the type of hitter who knows he can take the ball out of the park, and he has to tone that aggressive home run stroke down just a bit. Once he realizes that pitchers will throw nothing but breaking balls to fool him, he will improve even more. But he has had a great rookie campaign.

Bohm knows the strike zone very well and has the ability to take a pitch where it is thrown, using the entire field. That's what I like most about him. His bat control and eye-hand coordination are superb. He's just a bit too aggressive.

He might be the Rookie Of The Year. I wouldn't be upset with that.

Next year: He will again see time at first base, and if the DH is universal, he will pop up there as well. I will look for him in every league, because he has outstanding upside with power and very good offensive skills. For me, he is a fantasy mainstay.

Daulton Varsho, C/OF, Diamondbacks

Due to the presence of Carson Kelly, the Diamondbacks used Varsho more in the outfield than behind the plate. His versatility is admirable.

I was disappointed in what I saw from Varsho this short season. A left-handed hitter, the team moved him into the leadoff role and played him regularly.

The Diamondbacks were an awful team this season. Awful. Nobody hit. That includes Varsho. He was easily fooled by National League pitchers, and he has to regroup for his future.

He has two distinct qualities that would set him apart as a catcher for your fantasy team. First, he can run. He can steal bases, rare for catchers. He also has some pop from the left side, which helps at Chase Field.

Next year: An athletic guy, Varsho is a nice option, especially for leagues with two catchers. I do think he is a season away from finding consistency against big league pitching. So, I am personally wary. If he is on the board at the end-game when a catcher is needed, I'm in. But I won't target Varsho or reach for him.

Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

Switch-hitting Dylan Carlson is now part of the Cardinals outfield. It is an outfield that is desperate for quality hitters, and that's Carlson.

An outstanding athlete, Carlson offers balance between being a good hitter for average (in the future) and power. 

Carlson is a strong and very powerful guy. He makes good use of his well-proportioned frame and is beginning to figure out life in a big-league batter's box. He will continue to find a comfort zone and settle in as a major league quality hitter with a sweet swing.

Carlson took some time to get his bearings against quality pitching, but his power became evident. he will hit his share of doubles, triples and home runs. Count on that.

Next year: Carlson has won an outfield role with St. Louis. I will look for him in mid-rounds of drafts because I trust his future. He should move to the middle of the Cardinals lineup by the time 2021 begins.

Joey Bart, C, Giants

Joey Bart can thank Buster Posey for opting out of the 2020 sprint season. Bart is now the Giants catcher. Posey may be their designated hitter next year. Why not? That works.

Bart was the top prospect catcher until Adley Rutschman showed up with the Orioles.

A right-handed hitter, Bart is holding his own at the plate. He hasn't shown any power, but I think that might come next season. He has, however, hit some doubles and triples in a sample size of more than 100 plate appearances. That's encouraging.

Strikeouts have been an issue. That could continue. He's a catcher. And a good defensive catcher, at that.

He needs to improve his patience at the plate and try to adjust to what he is seeing from pitchers. However, I think he will pound the ball in the future, but a tough park in San Francisco won't help him.

Next year: He's the guy behind the plate. I believe that. I'll consider Bart late in drafts because I think his power will be on display over a longer season. That said, the catching position isn't deep. Unlike Varsho, he won't be deployed anywhere other than behind the plate.

Edwin Rios, IB/OF/DH, Dodgers

I am not surprised at the success left-handed hitting Edwin Rios has had at the big league level. For now, however, he is taking a back seat to Max Muncy at first base and Joc Pederson as the DH. I am thinking that changes next year.

Rios has blasted home runs and driven in runs in a rather limited amount of plate appearances. He is not setting the world on fire with his batting average or on-base percentage, but his raw power can't be denied. Look at what he did in less than 100 plate appearances.

He is too aggressive at the plate, and if he can control that, he will be a star. He doesn't like to take a base on balls, swinging at pitches that are touch for him to reach.

He has no speed. Don't look for stolen bases or triples. He'll have enough speed for doubles in most parks.

Next year: Max Muncy was a fantasy flop. I had him on virtually every one of my fantasy teams. But will the Dodgers stick with Muncy and Gavin Lux/Chris Taylor or slip Rios in at first and keep Lux or Much at second? Will they trade Joc Pederson and open the DH role? Who knows? But regardless, I want to find a spot for Rios on my teams. The man has power, and he knows how to use that power. I believe.

Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers

I'm not as sold on the left-handed hitting Gavin Lux as many analysts are. I just don't see what all the hype was about. He has now had another chance with the Dodgers in 2020, and he can't win the second base job outright. He hasn't hit. But does have a short swing and an ability to hit for average in a normal year.

Lux is probably better than we have seen this season, but I'm still not convinced. I think he's an average player. So as I noted above, Lux or Muncy could be the second baseman. Or Muncy could play first or DH. Who knows what the Dodgers have in store.

Next year: He may be popular in drafts because he's on a dangerous Dodgers club. Would you draft him if he were on the Royals? I think I'll check out my other options at second base.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

Hayes has had a good start to his big-league career and the Pirates brass totally love him. They are sold beyond belief. I just don't think he can sustain a solid offensive approach against quality big league pitching, but I may be very wrong about this. My jury is still out. He is a fine defensive third baseman. He has a really strong throwing arm, and he has some speed.

Hayes doesn't has shown power for a corner infielder, but he has shown more in this short season than I would have thought. I think his hit tool will play and he'll get his chances due to being a first-round draft pick out of high school. He has really good gap power and is really athletic. The son of Charlie Hayes, he grew up in baseball and has a bit of a swagger. I like what I've seen this short season more than what I have seen before.

Next year: I like power from third base and I like what I've seen initially. What happens when pitchers adjust to him? He has made great strides since I first scouted him. I'd take him and hold on. There is upside in Mr. Hayes.

HEADING HOME

As we head to the postseason, I don't have a clue who will win the World Series. With such a different format and teams playing so many games in a row, anything can happen.

I think anyone that writes off even the eighth seed in a league does that at great peril. The Yankees have problems. The Dodgers may look solid, but they have problems as well. Will Walker Buehler have blister problems? How good is that rotation behind Clayton Kershaw?

With Mike Clevinger fighting arm issues, will he pitching for the Padres? Will he be effective?

How healthy is Nelson Cruz for the Twins? I could go on with issue after issue.

Bottom line, any team in the postseason can be really dangerous. And any team can win.

Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff. And I hope you will read my article from Forbes this week.