AL FAAB Factor: Mid-July Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season getting a very delayed start, we're probably still a week away from even the leagues that drafted back in March holding any FAAB or waiver periods.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period. We are targeting next week (July 19) for a return to the usual FAAB Factor format.

Starting Pitcher

Matt Andriese / Jaime Barria / Felix Pena, Angels: A number of teams suddenly have some big COVID-related question marks in their rotations, either due to positive tests or players opting out of the season. In the case of the Angels, a team that had already said it wanted to use a six-man rotation to ease Shohei Ohtani's workload, that just creates even more chaos, and more opportunity. With Julio Teheran still away from camp for undisclosed reasons, and Patrick Sandoval not reporting until Thursday and thus well behind his rotation mates, there could be a lot of innings that need to be covered over the first couple weeks. Pena posted a solid 9.4 K/9 last year but is coming back from August knee surgery. Andriese has plenty of swingman experience from his Tampa days but hasn't really put up good numbers since 2015, while Barria was awful at two levels in 2019 after a more palatable 2018. None of the three have great upside, but they could snag a win or two out of the gate until the Angels' rotation gets settled.

Homer Bailey, Twins: Minnesota keeps insisting its No. 5 starter spot is up for grabs, but Bailey should still be considered the prohibitive favorite. The 34-year-old is a long way from the promise he showed in 2013, but Bailey will have a good offense at his back and can give you some bulk strikeouts, albeit potentially at the expense of your ratios. He'll be worth a roster spot in deeper leagues, but is probably best suited for formats where you can stream him against weaker opponents.

Anthony Banda / Jalen Beeks, Rays: Another rotation with potential holes is in Tampa, as Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Brendan McKay all have yet to begin workouts. The next arms up would be Banda and Beeks. The latter hasn't done much yet in the majors, but his 2018 campaign at Triple-A in the Red Sox system is still recent enough to give the southpaw some perceived upside. Banda has only thrown 94 innings at all levels over the last two years due to Tommy John surgery, but he once had a little prospect sheen as a Diamondback. Given the Rays' history, it seems more likely that both guys would operate as primaries behind an opener rather than moving officially into the rotation if they get called upon, but that's not a bad thing for their fantasy value.

Gio Gonzalez, White Sox: With Michael Kopech opting out of 2020, Gonzalez's rotation spot becomes a little more secure. The veteran lefty proved he can still be useful as a Brewer last year, but Gonzalez could have a hard time tossing more than five innings at a time, especially early in the season, putting a damper on his fantasy value. Consider him just a depth arm for deeper leagues.

Brian Johnson / Chris Mazza / Jeffrey Springs, Red Sox: Martin Perez could begin the season as Boston's No. 2 starter, which tells you how dire things are getting for the club. If that rotation depth gets stress tested, Johnson is the most familiar name who could be called upon. While the southpaw has shown (very) occasional flashes in the majors he simply might not have the stuff, or at least the confidence in his stuff, to hold up as a regular starter. Mazza made his big-league debut last year with the Mets as a 29-year-old and didn't show much, although he did post good ratios in the rotation for Triple-A Syracuse. Springs is the most intriguing of the bunch – the southpaw came up through the Rangers' system and failed to impress in the majors each of the last two seasons, but he posted some eye-popping strikeout rates on his way up the ladder. Given the situation in Boston, it's more likely the team will take a kitchen sink approach and try anything and everything to patch together innings, but if any of these guys land in a bulk reliever role or consistent rotation spot, they could provide some value.

Michael King / Jonathan Loaisiga / Clarke Schmidt, Yankees: The Yankees' rotation was set until Masahiro Tanaka's concussion, which opened up the battle for the No. 5 spot again. King is a low-ceiling plug-in, while Loaisiga is a talented guy who can't stay healthy. The big name here is Schmidt. The 24-year-old is the organization's No. 2 fantasy prospect and he's done nothing but dazzle the coaching staff since spring training. Loaisiga is probably the favorite to fill in until Tanaka is healthy, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the club decided Schmidt was ready and gave him a chance – and given James Paxton's injury history and J.A. Happ's rough 2019, one chance could be all Schmidt needs to stick around for good.

Carlos Rodon, White Sox: The delayed start to the campaign has allowed Rodon to get healthy again after Tommy John surgery last summer, but it's not clear if he'll get a chance to start right away, even with Kopech sitting the season out. Rodon's slider gave him some very interesting strikeout numbers in early 2019 before his elbow gave out, but that small sample just raises more questions – was the K-rate spike for real? Was increased slider use what caused his elbow to give out, and will he have to scale it back? He's still talented and still only 27 years old, but really, nothing's changed with regards to his fantasy profile. Rodon has a high ceiling, but it's unclear how likely he is to ever reach it.

Relief Pitcher

Zack Britton, Yankees: A positive test for Aroldis Chapman puts his status for Opening Day in question, and while the Yankees have once again assembled a deep setup crew, it looks like Britton would be the next man up in the closer role. The veteran lefty hasn't been dominant since 2016, but he's coming off his best campaign since his Orioles peak and could scoop up some early saves before Chapman is ready to resume his duties.

Trevor Richards, Rays: While he doesn't seem a likely option for an open rotation spot, Richards could end up being the biggest beneficiary of the turmoil on the Rays staff. The former Marlin has a killer changeup but not much else, and while he can get exposed as a starter, in a bulk relief role where he only has to turn a lineup over once or so, Richards could thrive – as he did after being acquired by Tampa last year.

First Base

Jose Marmolejos, Mariners: The 27-year-old appears set to break camp on a big-league roster for the first time, and Seattle likes his bat enough that it's giving him work in the outfield corners. Marmolejos is still primarily going to be a pinch hitter to start, and he has yet to prove he's anything more than Quad-A sort of hitter, but if Evan White falters at first base (or proves to need a platoon partner), or Daniel Vogelbach whiffs his way to the bench, Marmolejos could get a look.

Andrew Vaughn, White Sox: Unlike some other big-name prospects, I left Vaughn out of last week's column because Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion seemed too entrenched at 1B and DH for Vaughn to really threaten their spots this season, no matter how good he looked. The White Sox are giving the kid some reps at the hot corner though, and with Yoan Moncada potentially unavailable for Opening Day, there's suddenly a clear (if narrow) path for Vaughn to make his debut. The team probably has better defensive options to fill in for Moncada, such as sliding Leury Garcia to third base and starting Nick Madrigal's clock instead of Vaughn's, but if the 22-year-old slugger proves he can hold his own with the glove, who knows?

Second Base

Tyler Wade, Yankees: DJ LeMahieu's positive test could create an early hole at the keystone, and Wade is the most likely player to fill it. The 25-year-old might not hit much, but he could swipe a few bases with steady playing time, giving him some deep-league appeal. The dark horse here might be Matt Duffy, though. The former Giant and Ray signed with the club in late June, and he's just the kind of player who could follow in the footsteps of Gio Urshela and suddenly erupt in pinstripes.

Outfield

Scott Heineman, Rangers: Texas' OF/DH situation tilts heavily to the port side between Shin-Soo Choo, Willie Calhoun and Joey Gallo, creating an opening for a right-handed batter to get semi-consistent work in a roving platoon role. Nick Solak could end up seeing most of that at-bats if he doesn't have a regular defensive home, but if he's needed elsewhere, Heineman could be the next man up. The 27-year-old didn't do much in his big-league debut last year but he tore it up over a 42-game stretch for Triple-A Nashville, and he's flashed some good speed on the basepaths to go with his solid contact. He's the kind of guy who could pay off in deep formats.

Austin Martin, Blue Jays: Here's one more unlikely, but not impossible, prospect debut to consider. Martin's bat was arguably the most advanced of any prospect in this year's draft, but his eventual defensive home is very much up in the air. In such cases the safe bet is to assume the player winds up in the outfield, but the Jays' decision to pull the plug on Vlad Guerrero at third base and shift him across the diamond does create another scenario. Travis Shaw is now the presumed starter at third, but he's on a cheap one-year deal and is coming off a brutal 2019 at the plate. If Shaw is flailing again, and Martin is wowing the coaches in sim games... well, this is Toronto, so they probably still turn to a stopgap like Joe Panik or something instead of starting Martin's service time clock. If the club is in the hunt for a playoff spot and they've already turned to Nate Pearson, though, it could be that much easier for the front office to talk itself into adding Martin to the roster too.