This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open third-round action continues Saturday. Two of the top-five seeds on the men's side are on upset alert against talented younger opponents, while an all-American women's clash has an obvious favorite. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Picks: Upset Alert
Lorenzo Musetti (+390) vs. Novak Djokovic
Like Alexander Zverev in the first round against Rafael Nadal, Musetti has a chance in 2024 to finish what he started at a previous French Open. The 30th-seeded Musetti isn't at Zverev's level, even on the Italian's favorite clay-court surface, and Djokovic's decline hasn't been as drastic as Nadal's. Still, Musetti has to like his chances much more than he did in the fourth round of the 2021 French Open, where a 19-year-old Musetti took the first two sets against Djokovic but ran out of gas and won just one more game before ultimately retiring in the fifth set. Now a far fitter ATP Tour regular, Musetti has the talent to replicate those first two sets and keep pushing, especially against a diminished version of Djokovic, whose 16-6 record in 2024 is far below the 37-year-old's lofty usual standards.
Tomas Machac (+255) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Speaking of beating Djokovic, Machac did just that in Geneva in the week leading up to the French Open. The 23-year-old Czech is enjoying a breakout year in 2024, as he's climbed up to a career high ranking of No. 34 while posting an 18-8 record that includes top-10 wins over Djokovic and Andrey Rublev. Medvedev's ranked No. 5, but the lanky Russian probably isn't even a top-10 player on clay, with a .554 win rate on the dirt compared to .667 on grass and .751 on hard courts. Stylistically, Machac has the skill set to penetrate Medvedev's impressive defense, as Machac is a willing and effective volleyer and has one of the sweetest down-the-line backhands on the ATP Tour, giving him two reliable ways to finish off longer rallies.
Honorable Mention
Bianca Andreescu (+155) vs. Jasmine Paolini
French Open Odds: Lock It In
Casper Ruud (-330) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Ruud is 14-2 at the French Open since the start of the 2022 event, having made the final each of the last two years. The No. 7 seed is showing no signs of slowing down, with a 19-4 clay-court record in 2024. He was pushed to a fifth set by talented giant-killing Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the second round, but Ruud should have an easier time against the 28th-seeded Etcheverry, who is solid but has a far lower ceiling than Davidovich Fokina. Ruud has won both of their previous meetings, including a 7-6 (6), 6-4 triumph on clay in Barcelona six weeks ago.
Elina Svitolina (-300) vs. Ana Bogdan
Svitolina has navigated a tricky draw thus far, beating former world No. 1 Karolina Pliskova 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 and talented young Frenchwoman Diane Parry 6-4, 7-6 (3). Bogdan is an easier opponent on paper than either of those, though the world No. 64 is coming off an upset win over No. 20 seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Bogdan is just 11-13 in 2024, and she has never advanced past the third round in 24 previous Grand Slam appearances. The 15th-seeded Svitolina has reached the quarterfinals four times at the French Open alone, including last year.
Honorable Mention
Holger Rune (-750) vs. Jozef Kovalik
French Open Predictions: Value Bets
Madison Keys (-180) vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro's enjoying a breakout season, but the 23-year-old American remains unproven on clay, as she's just 3-4 against top-100 players on the surface in 2024. The highest-ranked opponent that the 24th-ranked Navarro has faced en route to the third round is No. 95 Sara Errani, so the 12th-ranked Keys will be a major step up in level of competition. Keys has both experience and recent form on her side. The 29-year-old American has reached at least the quarterfinals at 10 Grand Slam events, including two French Opens. Keys is also enjoying a superb clay-court season, with a 13-2 record since the start of Madrid and both losses coming against world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.
Francisco Cerundolo (+120) vs. Tommy Paul
These two have seen plenty of each other recently, as this will be their sixth encounter in the last two years. Cerundolo has won three of five overall, including the most relevant one in Madrid, 6-7 (7), 6-4, 6-2, just over a month ago. In addition to being their most recent meeting, it was the only time these two have played on clay. Paul has an edge in the rankings at No. 14 compared to No. 27 for Cerundolo, but the Argentine should be at least an even-money bet rather than an underdog based on clay-court results alone. Cerundolo has a .568 career clay-court win rate, while Paul's at .468.
Honorable Mention
Jan-Lennard Struff (-115) vs. Alex de Minaur
