This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first Grand Slam of 2025 begins Sunday, January 12 from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Australia, which will be Saturday night in the United States. Jannik Sinner claimed his first Grand Slam title here last year in the early stages of an ascent that helped the Italian capture the No. 1 ranking and establish himself as the favorite in his first bid to defend a major title. He'll face stiff competition from a men's singles field that includes his rival Carlos Alcaraz and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. The No. 1 seed and defending champion in the women's draw is Aryna Sabalenka, who is more comfortable on Melbourne's speedy hard courts than No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek or No. 3 seed Coco Gauff, the latter of whom narrowly edges out men's No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz as the highest-ranked American in either draw.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the Australian Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. All-time greats Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have retired and won't play in 2025, with the latter now a part of Djokovic's coaching team. Fellow ATP star Dominic Thiem has also hung up his racquet, as have multiple-time WTA Grand Slam winners Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza. Barbora Krejcikova (back), Simona Halep (shoulder) and Karolina Pliskova (foot) have withdrawn from the women's draw, while Caroline Wozniacki and Bianca Andreescu also won't be participating. Grigor Dimitrov (hip) and Marketa Vondrousova (thigh) are in their respective draws but are worth monitoring after recent injury scares. On the bright side, local favorite Nick Kyrgios is set for his first Grand Slam appearance since the 2022 U.S. Open after recovering from knee and wrist injuries, and American Jenson Brooksby's back from a doping suspension for his first action since the 2023 Australian Open.
There's a clear hierarchy in tournament odds on the men's side, both among contenders and separating the top contenders from the rest of the field. Sinner is the clear favorite, followed by Djokovic and Alcaraz, then Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. The women also have a clear top five, though the stratification in odds is significantly lower. Sabalenka leads the way, with Swiatek and Gauff behind her, then Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng rounding out the top contending group. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Other popular platforms for betting both tennis futures and individual matches include FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM (BetMGM) and Caesars Sportsbook. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
Australian Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Jannik Sinner (+110) - What a difference a year has made for Sinner, who was the Grand Slam-less third fiddle to Djokovic and Alcaraz heading into this tournament last year and now profiles as the clear favorite after winning both hard-court majors in 2024. The top-seeded Italian got a favorable draw all things considered with Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev all on the opposite half, though Nicolas Jarry -- who was ranked No. 16 in May -- is far from a comfortable first-round draw for Sinner. The rest of Sinner's roadblocks on the path to a repeat include Holger Rune, Hubert Hurkacz or Matteo Berrettini in the Round of 16, then Alex de Minaur or Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals, and Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals. Sinner's excellent ball striking off both wings and lack of weaknesses make him extremely tough to upset, especially in best-of-five set tennis, but his title odds are a little too optimistic considering how difficult it is to defend a Grand Slam title -- Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year joined Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer as the only men to do it since 2001. It would be tough to pick Sinner in a hypothetical final against Alcaraz after the Spaniard won all three of their meetings in 2024, and Sinner has the cloud of an April hearing with the World Anti-Doping Agency hanging over his head, so the value just isn't there with nearly even odds against the field.
In the Mix
Carlos Alcaraz (+350) - Alcaraz just needs the Australian Open to complete the career Grand Slam at age 21, having already won the U.S. Open, French Open and two Wimbledons. He's more vulnerable on hard courts, where Alcaraz's exquisite touch isn't quite as much of a differentiator and higher opposing speed of shot can throw off his timing, but at the end of the day, Alcaraz's A-game is still the highest level of tennis on any surface. The No. 3 seed doesn't have any red flags in his first three rounds, though Alcaraz's shocking defeat at the hands of Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round of the U.S. Open showed anything's possible. The degree of difficulty climbs steeply with Jack Draper or Sebastian Korda in the Round of 16, Djokovic in the quarterfinals and a potential semifinal rematch against Zverev, who knocked out Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Australian Open. One big difference that could help Alcaraz navigate this difficult path better in 2025 is the presence of coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, who missed last year's event while recovering from knee surgery.
Novak Djokovic (+600) - If Djokovic is going to win a record-setting 25th Grand Slam, he'll have to do it the hard way, potentially having to go through the top three seeds in descending order (Alcaraz, Zverev and Sinner) from the quarterfinals onward. Like Alcaraz, Djokovic is coming off a surprisingly early loss at the U.S. Open, where Alexi Popyrin took out the 37-year-old Serb in the third round. Between his will to win and tactical prowess, Djokovic's tennis ability between the ears is unmatched, and his commitment to fitness and training has allowed Djokovic's game to age gracefully. He won only one tournament in 2024, but it was the one Djokovic wanted most: the Olympics. His 2025 goal will shift back to breaking his tie in Grand Slam singles titles with Margaret Court, and Djokovic's best chance at achieving that feat might just be at Court's home slam, where Djokovic has claimed 10 of his 24 major titles. While the No. 7 seed's early path doesn't look too daunting, it's worth noting he could have a third-round rematch with big-serving American Reilly Opelka, who just defeated Djokovic in Brisbane to end the United States' nine-year drought against Novak.
Alexander Zverev (+1000) - Zverev has done pretty much everything besides win a Grand Slam or reach No. 1 in the world, and he earned the No. 2 ranking by being the most consistent men's player in the world outside of Sinner last year. It feels like the German has been around forever, but at just 27, Zverev still has time to rewrite the narrative on his career, a la Stan Wawrinka. Zverev reached his second Australian Open semifinal last year, but he may need to navigate an early landmine in his repeat bid, as fellow big server Nick Kyrgios is a potential third-round foe. He would be a clear favorite against Ugo Humbert of Arthur Fils in the Round of 16, and over Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals, but Zverev has usually faltered against top competition in the latter stages of majors, and he would likely be tasked with trying to reverse that trend against Alcaraz/Djokovic in the semis and Sinner in the final.
Daniil Medvedev (+1600) - Medvedev's a nice value as the clear No. 5 option in the oddsmakers' eyes. He has reached the final in three of the last four Australian Opens and five of the last eight hard-court Grand Slams, though the lanky Russian has only one major title (the 2021 U.S. Open) to show for all those deep runs. He's well positioned to find himself back in the semifinals again, as the No. 5 seed landed in the most cushy quarter of the draw alongside the fourth-seeded Fritz. Medvedev has often been at his best when embracing the villain role, and he'll need to do so if he faces 25th-seeded Australian Alexei Popyrin in the third round. Andrey Rublev or Frances Tiafoe wouldn't exactly be comfortable fourth-round draws, though Medvedev's 7-2 head-to-head against his childhood friend and 5-1 edge against the American should help ease his mind before a potential quarterfinal clash against Tiafoe's compatriot Fritz (1-1 head-to-head).
Four other players make the oddsmakers' list of secondary contenders with odds of +7000 or better: Taylor Fritz (+3000), Alex de Minaur (+5000), Jack Draper (+6000) and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (+7000). Fritz and Draper are both coming off career-best showings at the U.S. Open, where they reached the final and semifinals, respectively. Considering the fourth-seeded American was previously 0-4 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, he'll need to make another deep Grand Slam run to truly be considered one of the top contenders, though a quarterfinal win over Medvedev here would go a long way in solidifying Fritz's spot among the game's elite. Draper has struggled to stay healthy in his young career, but the British lefty has the game to hang with the world's best when he's at full fitness. Taking out Alcaraz in the fourth round would be a tall task, but at least the 15th-seeded Draper would have some belief stemming from a grass-court win over Alcaraz last year. Draper narrowly edges Fritz for the highest ceiling out of this group.
DeMinaur will have the backing of the crowd, and the eighth-seeded speedster plays with relentless effort, but there's a limit to how much power his 152-pound frame can produce. Having lost in the quarterfinals of the last three Grand Slams, de Minaur will have a tough time pushing past that round for the first time in his career since Sinner is the Australian's chalk quarterfinal opponent here. Mpetshi Perricard has an intriguing toolkit with a 6-foot-8 frame and the fearlessness to bombard opponents with 120+ mph on the second serve when his 140 mph first delivery misses its target, but the 21-year-old Frenchman is unlikely to get past the much more complete game of Fritz in the third round, if Mpetshi Perricard can even get through a first-round clash with countryman Gael Monfils in what will be must-see French TV.
Sleepers
Joao Fonseca (+8000) - Fonseca probably doesn't deserve to have the shortest odds among this group of sleepers, but the 18-year-old Brazilian should absolutely be on your radar moving forward. The 2023 junior world No. 1 is rapidly ascending, having won the ATP Next Gen Finals in December of 2024 and already captured his second career Challenger title this month. Still ranked outside the top 100, Fonseca earned his main-draw spot with a dominant showing in qualifying, dropping just 12 games in three matches to earn a first-round matchup against the ninth-seeded Rublev. Don't be surprised to find Fonseca among the pre-tournament title contenders two years from now, if not earlier.
Tommy Paul (+10000) - Paul reached the semifinals here in 2023 and has a nice opportunity to make the quarterfinals as the second-highest seed in the section with No. 6 seed Casper Ruud, who plays his best tennis on slower courts. The 12th-seeded American is outclassed in power and timing by other top-20 players, but Paul takes full advantage of his speed and athleticism, using them not only for defense but to get forward and take away time from his opponents. Paul is 2-0 in his career against Zverev, who is Paul's biggest obstacle to a second Australian Open semifinal in three years.
Jiri Lehecka (+15000) - A multi-month layoff due to a back injury derailed what otherwise had all the makings of a breakout 2024 campaign for Lehecka. He got hurt just as he made his first Masters 1000 semifinal in Madrid and didn't play again until Cincinnati -- missing both the French Open and Wimbledon. Despite the missed time, Lehecka still earned the No. 24 seed here. He notched six wins over top-15 opponents in 2024 and got his 2025 campaign started on the right foot with a title in Brisbane, where he posted two more top-15 wins (Holger Rune in straight sets and Grigor Dimitrov via retirement). Lehecka could get a third-round rematch with Dimitrov here, with the winner drawing Djokovic in the Round of 16.
Jakub Mensik (+30000) - The Czech women have had the spotlight for the last few years, but between Lehecka and Mensik, the country is poised to make waves on the men's side in 2025. Mensik has already climbed into the top 50 at age 19, fueled by a strong finish to 2024 that included a third-round showing at the U.S. Open and Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Shanghai. He got two top-10 wins in Shanghai and defeated 19th-ranked Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets at the U.S. Open. Mensik's powerful game is built for hard courts, and he could pick up another top-10 win in the second round here against Ruud.
Australian Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Aryna Sabalenka (+240) - Sabalenka's seeking a threepeat down under and a fourth title in the last five hard-court Grand Slams, having won the 2023 and 2024 Australian Opens and the 2024 U.S. Open. The world No. 1 is in form, having started the season 5-0 with a title in Brisbane. Sabalenka overpowers opponents on all surfaces, having reached at least the semifinals in seven of her last eight Grand Slams played, but her game is best suited for hard courts. Her draw is far from comfortable, with 2017 U.S. Open champion Sloane Stephens in the first round and a possible third-round clash with talented youngster Linda Noskova, who took out top-seeded Iga Swiatek at last year's Australian Open. More potential future stars are on Sabalenka's path after that, with Mirra Andreeva as her chalk Round of 16 opponent, then Qinwen Zheng or Diana Shnaider in the quarterfinals. Americans Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula are possible semifinal opponents for Sabalenka, while Swiatek, Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini and Emma Navarro landed in the other half of the draw. The top-seeded Sabalenka is rightfully favored, but this may be her toughest path to a major title yet.
In the Mix
Iga Swiatek (+500) - Swiatek is the co-second favorite along with Gauff. Both of them prefer slower surfaces, though Iga's 41-7 hard-court record since the start of last year isn't exactly complaint-worthy. She's only 17-6 at the Australian Open in her career, with a semifinal showing in 2022 representing the No. 2 seed's only run past the Round of 16. After losing in the third round last year, Swiatek could get another test there this year in the form of Amanda Anisimova or Emma Raducanu. Anna Kalinskya and Victoria Azarenka are potential fourth-round foes, then Emma Navarro in the quarterfinals and Rybakina or Paolini in the semifinals. There's also an off-court angle to consider with Iga in her first Grand Slam action since serving a one-month suspension for testing positive for trace amounts of a banned hear medication, though perhaps any residual stress will be canceled out by the freedom of operating in Sabalenka's shadow after Swiatek was the top seed at each of the previous 11 Grand Slams.
Coco Gauff (+500) - Gauff's 2024 season was a bit of a disappointment after she won her first Grand Slam title as a 19-year-old at the 2023 U.S. Open. She reached her first Australian Open semifinal after having never been past the Round of 16 and followed that up with a semifinal at the French Open but then lost in the Round of 16 at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Despite the "down" year, Gauff's still ranked third in the world and brings plenty of momentum into the Australian Open after winning the WTA Finals to close out 2024 and opening 2025 with a 5-0 showing at the United Cup. This recent run has included a pair of wins over Swiatek, against whom Gauff was previously 1-11. She'll likely have to get through Sabalenka in the semis just for a chance to possible face Swiatek in the final, and Gauff's more immediate concern will be a first-round match against 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin, who upset Gauff in the first round of Wimbledon in 2023. Karolina Muchova, Naomi Osaka and Jelena Ostapenko are all possible fourth-round opponents for Gauff, then potentially Jessica Pegula or Baula Badosa in the quarterfinals. Gauff's elite court coverage will always play up more on slower surfaces, but she has enough tools to contend for the title at every tournament she plays.
Elena Rybakina (+1000) - This is a nice buy-low opportunity on Rybakina, who uncharacteristically lost in the second round of both the Australian Open and U.S. Open last year and is dealing with some coaching drama heading into this tournament. There's still plenty to like here, as the world No. 6 has arguably the best serve on the WTA Tour and came a set from winning this title in 2023 after capturing Wimbledon in 2022. Rybakina's favored to win her quarter of the draw over No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini, and with Sabalenka and Gauff over in the other half, Rybakina has a realistic path to the championship match given her 4-3 head-to-head edge over Swiatek. Americans Danielle Collins and Madison Keys have other ideas and could face Rybakina in the Round of 16.
Qinwen Zheng (+1500) - Zheng rounds out the group of top contenders. She took advantage of the draw opening up to break through to the final here last year, then backed that result up by winning an Olympic ogld medal and reaching the championship match at the WTA Finals. Zheng has climbed to fifth in the rankings but got some bad luck in the draw, as a rematch of last year's Australian Open final against Sabalenka -- who leads their head-to-head 5-0 -- could happen in the quarterfinals. To get there, Zheng may have to get through ascendent 20-year-old Diana Shnaider in the Round of 16.
Seven other players have title odds of +6000 or better in a deep women's draw: Mirra Andreeva (+3000), Karolina Muchova (+3000), Naomi Osaka (+4000), Emma Navarro (+5000), Madison Keys (+5000), Jessica Pegula (+5000) and Jasmine Paolini (+6000). Paolini, Muchova, Pegula and Navarro have shown the most competitive form of this group in recent majors. Muchova and Osaka could face off in the second round, and Muchova seems closer to her peak form, as the Czech returned from injury to reach the semifinals at the U.S. Open while Osaka went just 3-4 at Grand Slams in her return to the WTA Tour in 2024 after returning from her pregnancy. Andreeva's a rising star and has already climbed to the No. 14 seed, but the 17-year-old Russian's most comfortable on clay. Paolini's still an underdog in many respects despite reaching the finals of both the French Open and Wimbledon and climbing to No. 4 in the world in a breakout 2024 season.
Pegula and Navarro both thrilled the American crowd with deep U.S. Open runs. Neither had been past the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam before, but Pegula reached the final and Navarro made the semis before both fell to Sabalenka. Now that Pegula has improved to 1-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, perhaps she'll start to find more consistent second-week success at majors, though the potential for decline is starting to emerge with her 31st birthday around the corner. Navarro's looking to continue a trend of improvement from 2024 that saw her reach the third round at the Australian Open, fourth round at the French Open, quarterfinals at Wimbledon and semifinals at the U.S. Open. Seeded seventh and eighth, Pegula and Navarro are the respective chalk quarterfinal opponents for Gauff and Swiatek. Keys is a perennial Grand Slam dark horse, with six major semifinal appearances (1-5, lost in 2017 U.S. Open final), and the big-hitting American is always dangerous when healthy. She could play Rybakina in the Round of 16.
Sleepers
Paula Badosa (+8000) - Badosa climbed to No. 2 in the world in 2022 before back problems halted her progress, but the talented Spaniard has returned to a high level and heads into this tournament as the No. 11 seed. She had a string of strong results in the second half of 2024, including WTA 1000 semifinals in Cincinnati and the China Open, as well as quarterfinal showing at the U.S. Open. Badosa could face Pegula in the Round of 16.
Danielle Collins (+10000) - At this time last year, Collins was planning to retire at the end of 2024. Instead, she's back for more after posting a career year that included her first WTA 1000 title on the hard courts of Miami. The American has had her best Grand Slam moments at the Australian Open, reaching the final in 2022 and semifinals in 2019. Seeded 10th, Collins has a potential third-round blockbuster against her compatriot Keys before a possible fourth-round matchup with Rybakina.
Amanda Anisimova (+15000) - Anisimova's still only 23 years old, and after her career was derailed by the passing of her father and coach, the outstanding ball striker finally seemed to rediscover her passion for the game down the stretch during last year's summer hard-court swing, as she reached a WTA 1000 final at the Canadian Open. She has a history of notching big wins at Grand Slams and reached the French Open semifinals as a 17-year-old in 2019. The 36th-ranked giant killer just missed being seeded but got a decent early draw and could get a chance to notch yet another massive scalp in the third round against Iga Swiatek.
Polina Kudermetova (+20000) - The younger sister of WTA veteran Veronika Kudermetova is making an early splash in 2025. The 21-year-old Polina is off to a 10-1 start in 2025, with her lone loss coming in three sets to Sabalenka in the final of Brisbane. Kudermatova notched a top-10 win over Daria Kasatkina at that tournament, then won all three of her Australian Open qualifying matches in straight sets to make the main draw. She'll face No. 23 seed Magdalena Frech in the first round and could match up with Andreeva in a third-round battle between talented young Russians.
Picks to Win the Australian Open
Sinner and Alcaraz won two Grand Slams apiece last year, and this title could well come down to those two again. Given Alcaraz's 3-0 head-to-head edge between them last year, I'm picking Carlos Alcaraz to complete the career Grand Slam by coming out on top in a championship match between the ATP Tour's two biggest young stars.
Sabalenka's path is far from easy, but it's hard to pick anyone else given her recent track record of Grand Slam success, especially on hard courts. Aryna Sabalenka is my choice to win the Australian Open, beating Rybakina in a big-hitting rematch of the 2023 final.
