This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, but the time difference means that the first matches in Melbourne will start Saturday night at 7 p.m. EST for American viewers. An American will look to build off a recent signature win, while a former top-10 player could find sledding unexpectedly tough in the first round on the men's side, and an Aussie will look to ride the crowd's support to an upset victory in the women's draw.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Daria Saville (+175) vs. Anna Blinkova
Saville's a crowd favorite who has made two previous runs to the Round of 16 down under, and the Australian veteran should benefit from this match being scheduled during the night session on Margaret Court Arena. This will be a much more comfortable and familiar environment for Saville than Blinkova, who has a 37-spot edge in the rankings at No. 75 currently but has never been past the third round of a Grand Slam or ranked in the top 30, limiting the Russian's exposure to the big show courts.
Thiago Monteiro (+300) vs. Kei Nishikori
Nishikori played pretty well down the stretch in 2024 and into 2025, but injuries have taken a toll on his body, and the 35-year-old has only one win at a Grand Slam since the start of 2022. The physicality of a best-of-five set Grand Slam match is significantly greater compared to the best-of-three tennis played at other tournaments, and Nishikori's lack of weapons at 161 pounds means he'll need to grind out every game. Monteiro's best results have come on clay, but the 30-year-old Brazilian has acclimated to the conditions here with three consecutive straight-sets wins in qualifying to earn a main-draw berth, and he's a solid veteran who won't beat himself. Even with the weather quite mild by Australian Open standards, Nishikori still has a lot to prove physically.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (+290) vs. Donna Vekic
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Anastasia Potapova (-330) vs. Tamara Zidansek
Potapova has stagnated after reaching a career high ranking of No. 21 in 2023, but she has been floating around the 25-35 range since while making at least the third round in four of the last seven majors. That's a significantly higher level than the 180th-ranked Zidansek has shown in the last few years, as the Slovenian has won only one main-draw match since the 2022 French Open. Zidansek plays her best tennis on clay, with just a 5-10 career hard-court record at Grand Slams.
Reilly Opelka (-330) vs. Gauthier Onclin
Opelka would be a significantly larger favorite if not for his retirement due to a back injury in the final of Brisbane a week ago. His exit was likely precautionary with an eye on being ready for the Australian Open after Opelka notched a statement win over Novak Djokovic in Brisbane, ending a nine-year American drought against the superstar. Opelka was a top-20 player before injuries to his shoulder, hip and heel cost him most of the 2023 and 2024 seasons. The 6-foot-11 American's booming serve will make it difficult for Onclin to get break opportunities, and the 23-year-old Belgian isn't used to competing at this level, as Onclin has yet to notch a main-draw ATP Tour win in his career.
Honorable Mention
Marta Kostyuk (-525) vs. Nao Hibino
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Pavel Kotov (-165) vs. Jaime Faria
Kotov's most comfortable on clay, but his well-rounded game should work on all surfaces in due time, and the Russian's coming off a breakout season in which he cracked the top 50 for the first time. He has since dipped back down to 99, but that's still well above the 124th-ranked Faria, who is 0-4 in his career in ATP main-draw matches. Faria has played predominantly on the Challenger circuit so far, with a focus on clay, so he's still a few steps behind Kotov on the development curve.
Quentin Halys (-105) vs. Adam Walton
Halys' game fits well on faster surfaces, as his power masks pedestrian movement. The 71st-ranked Frenchman consistently worked his way through qualifying at the biggest hard-court events down the stretch in 2024, notching a 20-5 record against players ranked outside the top 55 since the start of U.S. Open qualifying. Walton will have the crowd in his corner, but the Aussie is ranked 20 spots lower than Halys and has just a 3-12 career main-draw record on the ATP Tour, with only one win over a top-71 player.
Honorable Mention
Jule Niemeier (+135) vs. Maja Chwalinska
