This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Sunday night in the United States. A couple American favorites coming off deep U.S. Open runs will look to continue their hard-court Grand Slam momentum, while big names returning from lengthy layoffs could see mixed results.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
David Goffin (+160) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Goffin's days as a borderline top-10 player are behind him at age 34, but the Belgian showed he still has plenty of game left on hard courts when he reached the third round of the U.S. Open and a Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Shanghai last year, notching five top-50 wins in that two-tournament stretch. At. No. 54, Goffin actually has a 10-spot edge in the rankings over Bonzi. While Goffin hasn't looked impressive en route to a 0-2 start to the season, he's a consummate professional who knows how to raise his game for bigger events.
Sorana Cirstea (+310) vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina's a high-floor player who doesn't beat herself, but Cirstea can dictate play in this matchup with her superior power off the ground. While the 27th-ranked Svitolina rarely loses before the third round of a Grand Slam, she also rarely faces early opponents as dangerous as Cirstea, who has dropped to 71st in the rankings but was ranked 22nd last February after reaching the quarterfinals at the 2023 U.S. Open. The only previous hard-court encounter between these two went to a third-set tiebreak at Indian Wells in 2021.
Honorable Mention
Thiago Seyboth Wild (+180) vs. Fabian Marozsan
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Frances Tiafoe (-350) vs. Arthur Rinderknech
Tiafoe was having a down year in 2024 before turning things around by reaching his second U.S. Open semifinal in three years, and the powerful American has now won his last 14 Grand Slam first-round matches. That streak's unlikely to be snapped by the 61st-ranked Rinderknech, who has started the 2025 season with two losses to players behind him in the rankings. Overall, Rinderknech has a sub-.500 record on hard courts and only one career main-draw win at the Australian Open, while the 16th-ranked Tiafoe's best results have come on this surface.
Elise Mertens (-240) vs. Viktorija Golubic
Mertens has lost only once in her last 27 Grand Slam first-round matches, and while the 34th-ranked Belgian just missed being seeded here, she got a comfortable draw in her bid to add to that opening-round success. Golubic is ranked 95th, and she has lost first round in 14 of her 15 career hard-court Grand Slam appearances. Neither veteran possesses overwhelming power, so Mertens' superior consistency and touch should shine in this matchup.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Pegula (-450) vs. Maya Joint
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Nick Kyrgios (-125) vs. Jacob Fearnley
Kyrgios has a massive edge in talent, making this a nice buy-low opportunity in the enigmatic Australian's first Grand Slam match since the 2022 U.S. Open. After a stint in the broadcast booth as he recovered from knee and wrist injuries, the big-serving 29-year-old is ready to resume his tennis career. Kyrgios lost his only tune-up match in Brisbane in three tight tiebreak sets to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who is one of the few players capable of going serve for serve with Kyrgios. Fearnley doesn't have that luxury in what will be only the second Grand Slam main draw appearance for the 92nd-ranked former college tennis player.
Jelena Ostapenko (+150) vs. Belinda Bencic
It's surprising that Ostapenko is viewed as an underdog in this match considering Bencic is still working her way back into form after missing most of the 2024 season for the birth of her child. Prior to Bencic's hiatus, these two players generally ran about even as top-25 mainstays. Both women use excellent timing to take the ball early, but there are fewer questions about Ostapenko's rhythm and movement since she has been playing regularly and currently holds the No. 22 ranking. Bencic got a win over Anna Kalinskaya via retirement in the tune-up in Adelaide, but she hasn't otherwise defeated a top-60 opponent since beginning her comeback to the WTA Tour.
Honorable Mention
Katie Volynets (-135) vs. Rebecca Sramkova
