This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Australian Open second-round play continues Thursday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Wednesday night in the United States. A seeded American is on upset alert after barely escaping his first-round match, while a couple of top-10 seeds should have an easier time in the second round after difficult first-round matches, and one of the most talented young players on the ATP Tour will look to continue bouncing back from a relatively disappointing 2024 season.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Fabian Marozsan (+160) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Marozsan is a tougher out at the biggest events than his No. 59 ranking suggests, as he has reached the fourth round or better in four of eight career Masters 1000 main draw appearances and made the third round in his first Australian Open main draw last year. Both of these players needed five sets to get through the first round, but there are significantly more questions about how Tiafoe will recover from going the distance against Arthur Rinderknech in the first round considering Tiafoe threw up on the court in the fourth set and found a way to win in the fifth despite often struggling to move. Considering Tiafoe faded physically the last time we saw him in best-of-five play in his semifinal loss to Taylor Fritz at the U.S. Open, fitness is starting to become a major point of concern for the American. Given the massive disparity in effectiveness between Tiafoe's first and second serves, a worse-than-average serving day could spell trouble for the favorite against this talented opponent, with the match likely to tilt more in Marozsan's favor the longer it goes.
Erika Andreeva (+210) vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
While her younger sister Mirra Andreeva gets all the headlines, Erika's a talented player in her own right, and the 20-year-old Russian is starting to establish herself as a consistent presence at the biggest tournaments. Andreeva has notched a pair of top-20 wins on hard courts since August, beating Danielle Collins and Mirra. She has a nice opportunity to add another such victory against the out-of-form Haddad Maia, who snapped a five-match losing streak with a hard-fought 4-6, 7-5, 6-2 win over 146th-ranked clay-courter Julia Riera. The 69-spot difference in ranking between Haddad Maia (17) and Andreeva (86) is far greater than the difference in their recent level of play.
Honorable Mention
Miomir Kecmanovic (+270) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Emma Navarro (-250) vs. Xiyu Wang
Navarro was pushed to the brink in her 6-7 (5), 7-6 (5), 7-5 first-round win over Peyton Stearns, but that close score line can be attributed primarily to Stearns' strong play rather than any struggles on Navarro's part. Navarro showed off her ability in the clutch to reel off four consecutive convincing games after falling behind 5-3 in the deciding set, and that escape should give the No. 8 seed added confidence for this second-round match against the 108th-ranked Wang, who has been past the second round of a Grand Slam only once in 13 previous main draw appearances (2022 U.S. Open third round).
Daniil Medvedev (-500) vs. Learner Tien
Medvedev surprisingly needed five sets to get past unheralded Kasidit Samrej in the first round, though the three-time Australian Open runner-up never really felt in danger of losing. He has a nice opportunity to find his form in the second round against Tien, who was an outstanding junior player but lacks any real weapons, which will make it tough for the 19-year-old American to find success as he transitions to the ATP Tour, a la Donald Young. While Tien should continue to move up from his current ranking of No. 121, he probably doesn't have a top-30 ceiling. Medvedev should earn plenty of free points with his serve and can fall back on his defensive skills when necessary against an opponent that lacks the firepower to hit through the 6-foot-6 Russian.
Honorable Mention
Elina Svitolina (-350) vs. Caroline Dolehide
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Holger Rune (+110) vs. Matteo Berrettini
Less than two years ago, the debate between which of Rune or Jannik Sinner would be considered the top young challenger to Carlos Alcaraz was far from settled, as Rune had racked up multiple wins over Novak Djokovic and reached three Grand Slam quarterfinals by Wimbledon 2023 as a 20-year-old. Sinner and Rune's paths have since diverged, but the 2025 campaign offers a fresh start for the uber-talented Dane, who is still only 21. Despite his disappointing 2024 season, Rune's still ranked 13th, and he possesses a far more varied toolkit than Berrettini, who relies almost exclusively on his booming serve and forehand to win points. Berrettini will climb from his current No. 34 ranking if he can stay healthy, but Rune has had this matchup figured out, winning their last three encounters (two in 2024) to take a 3-1 head-to-head edge, all on hard courts.
Lucia Bronzetti (-165) vs. Jaqueline Cristian
Bronzetti's hoping to follow in the footsteps of Italian compatriot Jasmine Paolini and enjoy a mid/late-20's breakout. The 76th-ranked Italian took a big step in that direction with her 6-2, 7-6 (2) first-round win over two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka, setting up a favorable second-round matchup against Cristian. While Cristian is ranked only six spots back of Bronzetti, the Romanian has found viertually no success at majors, with a 3-8 career Grand Slam main draw record. The third win came in a match tiebreaker against 131st-ranked lucky loser Petra Martic in the first round, so that lucky draw is far from enough to rewrite the narrative for Cristian. Bronzetti's 1-4 head-to-head deficit against Cristian looks ugly at first glance, but the Italian won their only hard-court meeting, which also happened to be their most recent encounter, in straight sets at the Guangzhou Open in October.
Honorable Mention
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (-110) vs. Marcos Giron
