This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is back at the Apex on Saturday, March 2 for UFC Vegas 87. In the main event, heavyweights collide as Jair Rozenstruik takes on Shamil Gaziev.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev (12-0) vs. Jair Rozenstruik (13-5)
Shamil Gaziev is already booked in a main event in just his second UFC fight, but this is a spot I like him to get his hand raised here.
Gaziev was super impressive in his debut, as he pieced up Martin Buday on the feet. Meanwhile, Rozenstruik has had a very up-and-down UFC career. Rozenstruik is a striker with one-punch KO power, but his chin is also suspect, as we have seen him get hurt and knocked out.
On the feet, Gaziev will be able to land the better shots to piece up Rozenstruik to get a TKO win at a relatively cheap price.
UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet: Shamil Gaziev (-166)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Loik Radzhabov (17-5-1) vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (15-3)
UFC Vegas 87 is full of chalk and heavy favorites, and there aren't a ton of underdogs I see value in, but one is Loik Radzhabov.
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady is set to make his UFC debut after looking good in a decision win on the Contender Series. However, the odds are too high for him, which is why I like Radzhabov at this price.
Radzhabov will look to wrestle in this spot, and if he can get Al-Selwady down, he should be able to control him to grind out a decision. This is a competitive fight, and one I think goes the distance, so I'll take a flier on the +150 underdog.
UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet: Loik Radzhabov (+150)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (10-0) vs. Tyson Pedro (10-4)
The co-main event of UFC Vegas 87 is a banger of a light heavyweight matchup that likely won't last long.
Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro are both early finishers, but Pedro has a terrible gas tank and tends to fade after the first round. We have seen Pedro get finished before, and Petrino hits like a truck. In the second round, Pedro often starts to fade, so I like the Brazilian to score a stoppage win.
Pedro is there to be hit, while Petrino can also wrestle the Aussie and clinch him early. There is a chance he could submit Pedro, so I'll play it safe and take Petrino to win inside the distance instead of rolling the dice further on the method.
UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet: Vitor Petrino to win inside the distance (-110)
Weight Classes: Middleweight & Flyweight
Christian Leroy Duncan (9-1) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (11-4)
Steve Erceg (11-1) vs. Matt Schnell (16-7)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 87, I'm backing Christian Leroy Duncan and Steve Erceg to get their hands raised Saturday.
Duncan is coming off a TKO win over Denis Tiuliulin after a debut loss to Armen Petrosyan, which was a close fight. Against Ribeiro, the Brazilian's only path to victory is a first-round KO, but Duncan is hard to hit, while Ribeiro also leaves his chin up to be touched. Duncan should connect early and end this fight by knockout.
In the other leg, I like Steve Erceg to beat Matt Schnell at flyweight. Erceg has been impressive in both of his UFC wins, while Schnell is 1-2 in his last three, and his chin is a bit of a concern. Schnell gets hit way too much, and although Erceg doesn't have a ton of power, it's the grappling of Erceg which will be the difference. Schnell often gets caught in scrambles and will likely get submitted here.
UFC Vegas 87 Best Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan & Steve Erceg parlay (-145)
UFC Vegas 87 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 87 best bets:
- Shamil Gaziev (-166)
- Loik Radzhabov (+150)
- Vitor Petrino ITD (-110)
- Christian Leroy Duncan & Steve Erceg parlay (-145)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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