We find ourselves back at The Apex for a 12-fight slate, which gives us another opportunity to profit in DFS and betting formats. We'll look at every bout across three platforms, including a sizeable underdog with a chance to put up big points and an action fighter looking to get back in the win column. Our betting line comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Reinier de Ridder ($9,100)
De Ridder and Gerald Meerschaert are similar in that they are both submission specialists. This is where the similarities end, as "The Dutch Knight" aggressively looks for takedowns from the opening bell, while "GM3" plods along so methodically that he often needs to get hurt before being able to capitalize in the chaos. The ground exchanges will be fun to watch, but de Ridder will be the clear pick just on his willingness to force the kind of fight he wants.
Gillian Robertson ($9,200)
When Robertson is able to outgrapple her opponent, she is almost a lock to put up 100 points on DraftKings. "The Savage" hasn't scored lower than 96 in any of her last six wins, owing to her aggressiveness and willingness to finish the fight. Given that Luana Pinheiro was taken down twice and submitted by kickboxer Angela Hill in her last fight, it seems likely that Robertson will be able to get this fight to the ground and effortlessly control the action from top position.
Matthew Semelsberger ($7,700)
Semelsberger has lost four of his last five fights, but constant pressure and advantages in height and reach should give him an edge on Charlie Radtke, who likes to stalk his opponents and throw big shots. "Semi The Jedi" should be the superior grappler as well, making this a good matchup for him to get back on the winning track.
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos ($8,000)
Zaleski dos Santos should approach 100 percent ownership in multi-entry tournaments, as a late-replacement now sees him as a (-600) favorite against newcomer Zach Scroggin. While it's possible to get burned on fighters termed "free squares," there isn't much risk involved here, as Scroggin stands so upright and swings so mechanically that it's hard to see "Capoeira" struggling. Scroggin is a committed grappler, but this should be no issue for Dos Santos, who has not lost via submission in over a decade.
Ricky Turcios ($7,200)
I am a big fan of the aggression and grappling ability of Turcios at underdog odds. This is particularly the case against a fighter like Bernardo Sopaj, who swings big in the pocket and can grapple in his own right but got noticeably fatigued before being knocked out in his fight against Vinicius Oliveira. Turcios will try to impose his will from the opening bell, which could leave Sopaj on empty once again.
Tresean Gore ($8,600)
Gore may be young in his MMA career, but his varied skill set and ability to dictate where a fight takes place makes him good value against Antonio Trocoli. The Italian hits hard and can also work a wrestling game, but it's difficult to imagine Gore being outgrappled in this one, leaving some doubt about how Trocoli gets his hand raised.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Cortavious Romious OVER 35.5 Significant Strikes, Melissa Mullins UNDER 54.5 Significant Strikes, and Denise Gomes OVER 66.5 Significant Strikes
Romious got caught brawling in his first appearance on the Contender Series, but "Are You Not Entertained" is generally a far more measured boxer who sets up his grappling exchanges. He will likely need to strike a bit more than usual against Gaston Bolanos, who is a strong enough wrestler to stay on his feet but is often too willing to let his opponent lead the dance. This should result in Romious getting ahead by being the busier fighter.
Mullins is a promising yet flawed fighter who does her best to mix her striking and grappling. Klaudia Sygula is a slick grappler once she finds herself on the ground, but she is an incredibly sloppy kickboxer. Mullins likely won't want to engage in grappling sequences, and The Polish fighter is tough enough to withstand strikes for three rounds.
Unless a fighter is incredibly powerful or a committed wrestler, they are likely in for a striking war with Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The former title challenger has notched an incredible 5.71 significant strikes per minute in her lengthy UFC tenure, while Denise Gomes sports just a 0.88 takedown rate per 15 minutes of cage time. This should ensure a battle that will well exceed our total here.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Mansur Abdul-Malik UNDER 6.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Carlos Prates UNDER 10 Minutes of Fight Time
It will be a battle of the brawlers when Abdul-Malik takes on Dusko Todorovic, as the two men have only seen the scorecards twice in 22 combined professional fights. While Todorovic can wrestle, we have seen him get incredibly tired when having to do so for any length of time, so a finish will likely come no matter how the fight plays out.
Neil Magny will look to hold on for dear life against Prates, who has the length, power, and creativity to turn out the lights of anyone in the welterweight division. It's important to note that choosing the under here is essentially banking on a Prates knockout, as the veteran doesn't tend to finish fights. This shouldn't be too much of a concern, as Magny will be in grave danger every second he stands in space.
Bets to Consider
Da'Mon Blackshear Wins via Decision (-120)
Laying chalk on a prop isn't always the most comfortable feeling, but Blackshear is a step ahead of Cody Stamann in every area except for pure power, and "The Spartan" has won just seven of his 21 professional fights via KO/TKO. Unless that knockout materializes, Stamann will run into all kinds of trouble against a far superior striker and grappler who carries a whopping eight-inch reach advantage.
